(下边有中文翻译，请继续看到底。 谢谢。）
The ongoing Israeli-American war on Iran has triggered a cascade of consequences across the global economy. What was initially perceived by some as a localized geopolitical conflict has evolved into a devastating economic and social crisis that affects everyone—from the everyday worker in Europe to the farmer in Sub-Saharan Africa. With the interruption of oil supplies, rising fuel costs, spiralling inflation, and increasing food insecurity, the war has laid bare the fragility of a highly interconnected global economy.
While many may point to the geopolitical stakes in the Middle East or the ideological divides between Israel, the U.S., and Iran, the economic ripple effects are impossible to ignore. As the conflict unfolds, countries around the world—particularly those heavily dependent on energy imports—are paying a price far beyond the price of crude oil. But the most devastating impact is not just felt by governments or corporations; it is the common citizen—whether in the United States, India, or Argentina—who bears the brunt of this war.
At the heart of the war’s economic impact is oil. Iran, with some of the largest oil reserves in the world, has been a significant player in the global energy market. The country’s oil exports have already been severely affected by sanctions, and the ongoing conflict has further crippled this critical sector. Prior to the war, Iran was exporting around 1.5 million barrels of crude oil per day. However, with the Israeli American offensive, oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s busiest oil passages, have become increasingly vulnerable to disruption.
The energy market has seen prices rise steadily, with Brent crude—an international benchmark—climbing above $120 per barrel, marking a 50% increase since the war began. For consumers, this translates to significantly higher fuel costs, both for transportation and heating. For businesses, the rising cost of energy has triggered a wave of inflation that extends far beyond gas stations.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the war has led to a reduction of 3.5 million barrels per day in global oil supplies. Countries like China, India, and Japan, which are large importers of oil, have been forced to turn to more expensive alternatives, further driving up costs and affecting trade balances.
The knock-on effects of oil price increases are felt most acutely in global supply chains. Transportation costs, which make up a significant portion of the cost of consumer goods, have risen dramatically. The cost of shipping a container from China to the United States, for example, has increased by more than 30% in the past year alone.
As transportation costs rise, businesses are forced to pass on the burden to consumers. The result is widespread inflation, impacting everything from the price of food to electronics. According to a report by the World Bank, global food prices have surged by nearly 18% since the war began, with staple products like wheat, rice, and vegetable oils seeing some of the steepest increases. This price inflation is particularly damaging for lower-income households, who spend a disproportionately large share of their income on food.
The war has exacerbated existing inflationary pressures from the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting supply chain disruptions. For many developing countries, this new wave of inflation could mean an increase in poverty levels. In countries already battling high inflation, like Venezuela and Argentina, the cost of living has become unsustainable for millions of people.
While the war’s economic repercussions are global in scope, some countries are feeling the brunt more than others. The following nations are particularly vulnerable due to their dependence on oil imports, their pre-existing economic challenges, or both.
India, the third-largest oil importer in the world, has seen its energy bill skyrocket. With oil accounting for more than 30% of its total import expenditure, higher prices directly affect the country’s trade deficit, inflation, and economic growth. The government has had to spend billions of dollars to subsidize fuel costs, which has put enormous pressure on its fiscal budget. The rise in fuel costs has translated into higher prices for food and goods, especially as India imports large quantities of raw materials for manufacturing.
Additionally, India’s agricultural sector, heavily reliant on diesel for irrigation and transportation, has been hit hard by rising fuel prices. This has led to increased food prices, especially for staple crops such as wheat, rice, and lentils, further burdening the country’s low-income population.
Turkey, a key ally of the West in the region, also faces dire consequences. The country’s economic vulnerability is exacerbated by its dependence on energy imports, which account for over 20% of its GDP. The Turkish lira has lost significant value since the onset of the conflict, further driving up the cost of imports. Already grappling with high inflation rates and a collapsing currency, the war has made it even harder for Turkish consumers to make ends meet. The price of essential goods has soared, and the Turkish economy has entered a period of stagflation—high inflation coupled with stagnant economic growth.
Sub-Saharan Africa, home to some of the world’s most vulnerable economies, is particularly vulnerable to the ripple effects of the war. The region is heavily dependent on oil imports for transportation and energy, and rising fuel costs have led to widespread hardship. Countries like Nigeria and South Africa, which rely on imports for over 70% of their fuel needs, have seen prices rise sharply, affecting transportation costs and food prices.
In many parts of Africa, where millions already live below the poverty line, the additional burden of rising living costs is pushing more people into extreme poverty. In particular, the rise in food prices has triggered widespread hunger, especially in countries like Sudan, where the war has worsened an already fragile food security situation.
The European Union has not been spared from the global economic fallout. While the EU imports less oil from Iran than some of its counterparts, the overall rise in global oil prices has resulted in higher costs across the continent. With inflation rates at historic highs, Europe is experiencing a cost-of-living crisis. In countries like Germany, France, and Spain, energy bills have surged by up to 40%, and the price of goods and services has risen across the board.
The war has also strained European relations with both the U.S. and Iran, affecting trade partnerships and economic cooperation. Europe, which had been working toward energy diversification and greater reliance on renewable sources, is now back in the position of relying on energy imports, which leaves it vulnerable to future price hikes.
If the Israeli-American war on Iran persists or escalates further, the global economic ramifications will only deepen. The interruption of oil and gas supplies will continue to drive up prices, leading to further inflation. Global trade will slow as transportation costs rise, exacerbating shortages of goods and services, especially in developing nations.
The longer the war drags on, the more dire the consequences for emerging markets and low-income economies. Countries that are already struggling with high debt burdens, such as Sri Lanka and Pakistan, may face bankruptcy or default. In many African and Asian countries, prolonged inflation and energy shortages could lead to widespread social unrest, destabilizing already fragile political systems.
If the conflict spreads to other parts of the Middle East, the situation could become even more catastrophic. A regional conflict would send shockwaves throughout the global economy, with a potential spike in oil prices pushing the world toward a global recession. Central banks in advanced economies, such as the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, would likely raise interest rates in an attempt to combat inflation, further stalling economic growth.
For the average person, the effects of this war are keenly felt. Whether it’s a worker in Paris struggling with higher fuel prices during their commute, or a student in New Delhi unable to afford groceries due to rising food costs, the burden is universal. Inflation eats away at purchasing power, and higher energy prices mean that everything costs more. The war exacerbates the inequality between rich and poor, as wealthier individuals can absorb higher costs, while those living pay-check to pay-check find themselves in financial distress.
The most vulnerable populations—children, the elderly, and low-income families—are hit hardest. Malnutrition, lack of access to medical care, and political instability are just a few of the tragic consequences that may unfold as the war continues. If the conflict drags on, we risk seeing entire generations deprived of their basic needs.
The Israeli-American war on Iran is not just a geopolitical event; it is an economic and humanitarian crisis that reverberates around the world. From rising fuel prices to food insecurity, the war is affecting millions of people in ways that transcend borders and nationalities. As the conflict continues, its economic toll will only grow, particularly for vulnerable countries and populations. It is incumbent upon global leaders to seek a diplomatic solution that can bring an end to the violence, restore stability, and mitigate the far-reaching consequences for the global economy.
In the meantime, it is the everyday person who will continue to shoulder the greatest burden. It is a stark reminder that in our interconnected world, the costs of conflict are often borne by those least responsible for it.
以色列与美国对伊朗的战争如何损害了全球经济。
正在进行的以色列-美国对伊朗的战争已在全球经济中引发连锁反应。最初被一些人视为局部地缘政治冲突的事件，已经演变成一场严重的经济和社会危机，影响到每一个人——从欧洲的普通工人到撒哈拉以南非洲的农民。由于石油供应中断、燃料成本上升、通货膨胀加剧以及食品安全问题日益严重，这场战争暴露了高度互联的全球经济的脆弱性。
虽然许多人可能将关注点放在中东的地缘政治利益或以色列、美国与伊朗之间的意识形态分歧上，但战争带来的经济连锁效应不可忽视。随着冲突的持续，世界各国——尤其是那些高度依赖能源进口的国家——正在付出远超原油价格的代价。但最严重的影响不仅仅发生在政府或企业身上；普通民众——无论是在美国、印度，还是阿根廷——正承受这场战争的最大冲击。
战争经济影响的核心是石油。伊朗拥有全球最大的石油储备之一，是全球能源市场的重要参与者。该国的石油出口已受到制裁的严重影响，而持续的冲突进一步削弱了这一关键部门。战争爆发前，伊朗每日出口约150万桶原油。然而，随着以美联合进攻，经过世界最繁忙的航道之一——霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输日益面临中断风险。
能源市场价格持续上涨，国际基准布伦特原油价格已超过每桶120美元，自战争开始以来上涨了50%。对消费者而言，这意味着交通和取暖燃料成本大幅增加；对企业而言，能源成本上升引发的通胀波及范围远超加油站。
根据国际能源署（IEA）的数据，战争已导致全球石油供应每天减少350万桶。像中国、印度和日本这样的石油进口大国被迫转向更昂贵的替代品，进一步推高成本并影响贸易平衡。
油价上涨的连锁效应在全球供应链中尤为明显。运输成本占消费者商品成本的比重很大，运输费用急剧上升。例如，从中国运送一个集装箱到美国的费用，仅在过去一年就上涨了30%以上。
随着运输成本上升，企业不得不将负担转嫁给消费者，导致全面通胀，影响从食品到电子产品的各类商品。根据世界银行的报告，自战争开始以来，全球食品价格已上涨近18%，其中小麦、大米和植物油等主食涨幅尤为明显。对低收入家庭而言，这种价格上涨尤其具有破坏性，因为他们在食品上的支出占收入比例过高。
战争加剧了新冠疫情及供应链中断造成的既有通胀压力。对于许多发展中国家而言，这一新一轮通胀可能导致贫困水平上升。在已面临高通胀的国家，如委内瑞拉和阿根廷，数百万人的生活成本已变得难以承受。
尽管战争的经济影响具有全球性，但一些国家受到的冲击尤为严重。这些国家通常因高度依赖石油进口、经济基础脆弱或两者兼具而尤为脆弱。
印度，世界第三大石油进口国，能源开支激增。石油占其总进口支出超过30%，价格上涨直接影响贸易逆差、通胀和经济增长。政府不得不花费数十亿美元补贴燃料成本，对财政预算造成巨大压力。燃料成本上涨也导致食品和商品价格上涨，尤其是印度大量进口原材料用于制造业。
此外，印度农业部门高度依赖柴油进行灌溉和运输，燃料价格上涨对其冲击尤为严重。这导致主要农作物如小麦、大米和扁豆价格上涨，进一步加重低收入群体负担。
土耳其作为西方在该地区的关键盟友，也面临严峻后果。其经济脆弱性因能源进口占GDP超过20%而加剧。自冲突开始以来，土耳其里拉大幅贬值，进一步推高进口成本。该国已在高通胀和货币崩溃的困境中挣扎，战争使土耳其消费者的生活更加艰难。基本商品价格飙升，经济进入滞涨期——高通胀伴随经济停滞。
撒哈拉以南非洲拥有世界上一些最脆弱的经济体，也极易受到战争的连锁影响。该地区严重依赖石油进口用于交通和能源，燃料成本上涨导致普遍困难。像尼日利亚和南非这样的国家，其燃料需求超过70%依赖进口，价格大幅上涨，影响运输成本和食品价格。
在非洲许多地区，数百万已生活在贫困线以下的人因生活成本上升而陷入极端贫困。尤其是食品价格上涨引发普遍饥饿，像苏丹等国，本已脆弱的粮食安全状况因战争而进一步恶化。
欧盟也未能幸免于全球经济冲击。尽管欧盟从伊朗进口的石油比其他国家少，但全球油价整体上涨导致整个欧洲成本上升。通胀率达到历史高位，欧洲正经历生活成本危机。在德国、法国和西班牙等国，能源账单上涨达40%，商品和服务价格全面上涨。
战争还加剧了欧洲与美国及伊朗的关系紧张，影响贸易伙伴关系和经济合作。欧洲原本致力于能源多样化和可再生能源发展，但现在不得不重新依赖能源进口，使其对未来价格上涨更加脆弱。
如果以美对伊战争持续或进一步升级，全球经济影响只会加深。石油和天然气供应中断将继续推高价格，引发更高通胀。随着运输成本上升，全球贸易将放缓，加剧发展中国家商品和服务的短缺。
战争拖延时间越长，新兴市场和低收入经济体面临的后果就越严重。已背负高债务的国家，如斯里兰卡和巴基斯坦，可能面临破产或违约。在许多非洲和亚洲国家，长期的通胀和能源短缺可能导致大规模社会动荡，破坏本已脆弱的政治体系。
如果冲突蔓延至中东其他地区，局势可能更加灾难性。区域冲突将冲击全球经济，油价可能飙升，推动世界走向全球衰退。发达经济体的中央银行，如美联储和欧洲央行，可能会提高利率以应对通胀，进一步抑制经济增长。
对于普通民众而言，这场战争的影响最为直接。无论是巴黎的通勤者因燃料价格上涨而困扰，还是新德里的学生因食品价格上涨而无法负担生活，压力无处不在。通胀侵蚀购买力，能源价格上涨意味着一切成本增加。战争加剧了贫富差距，富人能够吸收成本上涨，而依靠薪水生活的人则陷入财务困境。
最脆弱的群体——儿童、老年人和低收入家庭——受影响最深。营养不良、医疗缺乏和政治不稳定只是战争持续下可能出现的部分悲剧性后果。如果冲突持续，可能看到整整一代人失去基本生活保障。
以美对伊战争不仅是地缘政治事件，更是一场波及全球的经济和人道主义危机。从燃料价格上涨到食品不安全，战争影响数百万人，跨越国界和国籍。随着冲突持续，其经济代价只会增加，尤其是对脆弱国家和人口。全球领导人有责任寻求外交解决方案，以结束暴力，恢复稳定，并缓解对全球经济的深远影响。
与此同时，日常民众将继续承担最大负担。这提醒我们，在互联互通的世界中，战争的代价往往由那些最无辜的人承担。
(注意： 本文是用AI翻译的，或有误差。请以原版英文为准。谢谢。)
Reference Link:- https://strafasia.com/how-the-israeli-american-war-on-iran-is-harming-the-global-economy/