（下边有中文翻译请继续看到底。 谢谢。）
Asian think tanks analysis – Is it embarrassing withdrawal of US from Afghanistan? 亚洲智库分析：美国从阿富汗撤军是令人尴尬的吗？
The recent rise in tension between Pakistan and Afghanistan has drawn concern and sorrow among observers across the region. Two countries sharing not only a 2,600-kilometer-long border but also deep historical, cultural, linguistic, and religious ties are once again facing avoidable friction. For centuries, the people of Pakistan and Afghanistan have shared bloodlines, faith, and traditions. The Durand Line may serve as a border in modern geopolitics, but in reality, families, tribes, and cultures on both sides of the line have always been one.
It is deeply regrettable, therefore, to see relations deteriorate between two brotherly Muslim nations. The current disputes and cross-border clashes have brought unnecessary losses to both sides—losses that could and should have been prevented. No gain can justify the blood of Muslims being spilled by the hands of fellow Muslims. As the Holy Qur’an reminds us, “The believers are but brothers, so make peace between your brothers.”
Mechanisms for Dialogue and Understanding
Differences between neighbors are not unusual. Even real brothers within a family can have disagreements. What matters is how such differences are managed. Between Pakistan and Afghanistan, several institutional and diplomatic mechanisms exist for consultation, dialogue, and cooperation. Both sides have established border coordination centers, intelligence-sharing frameworks, and high-level committees. In addition, regional platforms—such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO), and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC)—provide avenues for structured dialogue.
At the global level, the United Nations Charter also offers ample room for peaceful dispute resolution. Therefore, military confrontation or inflammatory rhetoric is neither justified nor productive. It is encouraging that both countries have, at different points, recognized the value of dialogue and have returned to the negotiating table.
The recent Doha dialogue, graciously hosted by our Muslim brother country Qatar, marks an important step forward. Qatar’s contribution, supported by Saudi Arabia’s constructive role and China’s diplomatic encouragement, reflects the shared desire of regional powers to see peace and stability restored between Pakistan and Afghanistan. These mediating efforts deserve appreciation and must be sustained with sincerity.
It is now essential that both sides adhere fully and faithfully to the commitments reached in Doha. Dialogue, patience, and mutual respect must replace suspicion and confrontation.
A History of Brotherhood and Shared Sacrifice
Relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan have been shaped by a long and complex history—marked by moments of solidarity and occasional misunderstanding. Pakistan was among the first countries to recognize the Taliban government during its first tenure (1996–2001), and it even persuaded Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to extend recognition as well. When the United States invaded Afghanistan in 2001, Pakistan bore immense economic and security burdens, including the influx of refugees, the spread of militancy, and the challenges of cross-border terrorism.
Yet, Pakistan never abandoned the Afghan people. Over four decades, Pakistan has hosted more than five million Afghan refugees—providing them shelter, education, healthcare, and opportunities to rebuild their lives. Even today, nearly 2.5 million Afghans remain in Pakistan, and hundreds of thousands of Afghan students are studying in Pakistani universities. Many of these young Afghans, fluent in Urdu and Pashto, have grown up among Pakistanis, sharing the same values and aspirations. They can and should serve as bridges of understanding between the two nations.
Pakistan has repeatedly demonstrated goodwill toward Afghanistan. It facilitated peace talks between the Taliban and the international community, supported humanitarian assistance, and helped Afghanistan reconnect to regional trade routes. Pakistan’s desire has always been a peaceful, stable, and prosperous Afghanistan—because a secure Afghanistan is vital for regional peace and for Pakistan’s own development, especially its connectivity with Central Asia.
India’s Role: A Misplaced Partnership
Unfortunately, recent signs of growing Indian involvement in Afghanistan have raised valid concerns. Historically, India has had no geographical, cultural, religious, or linguistic connection with Afghanistan. It shares no border, no traditions, and no faith with the Afghan people. India’s attempts to establish influence in Afghanistan are driven not by goodwill, but by strategic rivalry with Pakistan.
For decades, India has sought to use Afghan territory to destabilize Pakistan. There is credible and verifiable evidence that India, through its intelligence networks, has supported terrorist activities against Pakistan from Afghan soil, funding militant groups such as the TTP and BLA. Pakistan has presented this evidence to both the Afghan authorities and international partners.
The Taliban should therefore remain cautious in dealing with India. During the two decades of American occupation (2001–2021), India was among the staunchest opponents of the Taliban. It labeled them terrorists, refused to recognize their legitimacy, and opposed all peace talks involving them. In contrast, Pakistan maintained open and indirect communication with the Taliban throughout those difficult years, even when it faced criticism from the West for doing so.
Most Taliban leaders were either educated in Pakistan or lived there for years. Pakistan provided refuge, shelter, and medical care to countless Afghans during their long struggle. It is thus deeply disappointing to see the current Taliban administration showing distrust toward Pakistan while courting a country that once called them enemies.
Any alliance between India and Afghanistan, given their lack of natural affinity, is artificial and cannot last. India’s record with Muslim-majority nations under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government—known for its Hindu nationalist ideology inspired by the extremist RSS—speaks volumes. India’s policies in Kashmir, its anti-Muslim legislation, and its silence on Palestinian suffering all expose its hypocrisy. The Taliban, as leaders of an Islamic state, must see through these realities and choose their partners wisely.
The Way Forward: A Strategy for Reconciliation
For Pakistan and Afghanistan, the road to reconciliation is not impossible—it simply requires honesty and commitment. Both countries have far more to gain from cooperation than confrontation. Here is a pragmatic approach to rebuilding trust and partnership:
- Strengthen Diplomatic Channels: Regular high-level meetings between foreign ministers, border authorities, and military representatives should be institutionalized. A permanent joint commission can help address security concerns before they escalate.
- Ensure Non-Interference: Afghanistan must guarantee that its soil will not be used by terrorist organizations—whether TTP, BLA, or foreign intelligence networks—against Pakistan. In return, Pakistan should avoid measures that can be seen as punitive or unilateral, such as abrupt border closures or restrictions on trade.
- Revive Economic Cooperation: Afghanistan, being a landlocked country, depends heavily on Pakistan for transit trade. A smooth flow of goods benefits both economies. Joint economic zones, road and rail connectivity projects, and energy linkages can foster interdependence and stability.
- Expand People-to-People Contacts: Cultural exchanges, student scholarships, and media cooperation can counter disinformation and rebuild public trust. Afghan graduates of Pakistani universities can serve as informal ambassadors of goodwill.
- Collaborate on Counterterrorism: Both sides face threats from transnational extremist groups. Joint intelligence sharing and coordinated border security can serve mutual interests.
- Encourage Regional Mediation: Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and China have proven to be sincere partners in promoting peace. Their continued engagement can provide confidence and help both sides stay on the path of dialogue.
- Promote Positive Media Narratives: The media on both sides must avoid hate speech and inflammatory reporting. Instead, they should highlight shared culture, faith, and common goals.
Brotherhood Over Blame
It is easy to point fingers; it is harder to extend a hand. Afghanistan and Pakistan, two brotherly nations bound by Islam, geography, and history, cannot afford to drift apart. The region’s enemies benefit from division, not unity. Every bullet fired across the border, every angry word in the media, is a victory for those who wish to see Muslims divided and weak.
Pakistan has always stood with Afghanistan—through war, occupation, and crisis. It continues to do so today. The Afghan people, proud and courageous as they are, must now look beyond temporary grievances and recognize their real friends. India’s overtures may sound appealing in the short term, but they are built on opportunism, not fraternity.
A Shared Destiny
The destinies of Pakistan and Afghanistan are intertwined. Neither can prosper in isolation or hostility. Both nations stand at a critical juncture: they can either continue down a path of mutual suspicion or rediscover the spirit of brotherhood that has bound them for centuries.
Peace will not come overnight, but the first step has already been taken through dialogue in Doha. It must be followed by sincere implementation, mutual respect, and trust. The world is watching, but more importantly, the Muslim world is hoping that two of its brotherly nations will rise above discord and become pillars of stability in a turbulent region.
Let wisdom prevail over emotion, and unity over division. The people of Afghanistan and Pakistan deserve peace — not as a distant dream, but as a shared reality, built together, as brothers once more.
阿富汗和巴基斯坦：兄弟因误解而分裂，因命运而团结
最近巴基斯坦和阿富汗之间的紧张局势升级，引起了整个地区观察人士的关注和悲伤。两国不仅拥有2600公里长的边境线，而且有着深厚的历史、文化、语言和宗教联系，这再次面临着本可避免的摩擦。几个世纪以来，巴基斯坦和阿富汗人民有着共同的血统、信仰和传统。杜兰德线在现代地缘政治中可能是一条边界，但实际上，这条线两侧的家庭、部落和文化一直是一体的。
因此，看到两个兄弟的穆斯林国家之间的关系恶化，令人深感遗憾。当前的争端和跨境冲突给双方都带来了不必要的损失，这些损失本可以也应该避免。任何利益都不能证明穆斯林同胞所流的鲜血是正当的。正如神圣的《古兰经》提醒我们的那样：“信道的人不过是兄弟，所以你们应当使兄弟和睦。”
对话和谅解机制
邻居之间的分歧并不罕见。即使是家庭中真正的兄弟也会有分歧。重要的是如何处理这些分歧。巴基斯坦和阿富汗之间存在着若干磋商、对话和合作的体制和外交机制。双方建立了边境协调中心、情报共享框架和高级别委员会。此外，区域平台，如上海合作组织（SCO）、经济合作组织（ECO）和伊斯兰合作组织（OIC），为有组织的对话提供了途径。
在全球一级，《联合国宪章》也为和平解决争端提供了充分的空间。因此，军事对抗和煽动性言论既不合理，也无益。令人鼓舞的是，两国在不同时刻都认识到对话的价值，并已回到谈判桌。
最近由我们的穆斯林兄弟国家卡塔尔慷慨主持的多哈对话标志着向前迈出的重要一步。卡塔尔的贡献，在沙特发挥建设性作用和中国外交鼓励的支持下，反映了地区大国希望巴基斯坦和阿富汗恢复和平与稳定的共同愿望。这些调解努力值得赞赏，必须真诚地加以维持。
现在至关重要的是，双方都要全面和忠实地遵守在多哈达成的承诺。对话、耐心和相互尊重必须取代怀疑和对抗。
兄弟情谊和共同牺牲的历史
巴基斯坦和阿富汗之间的关系有着漫长而复杂的历史，既有团结的时刻，也有偶尔的误解。巴基斯坦是最早承认塔利班政府第一个任期（1996-2001）的国家之一，它甚至说服沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国也承认塔利班政府。2001年美国入侵阿富汗时，巴基斯坦承受着巨大的经济和安全负担，包括难民的涌入、武装分子的蔓延以及跨境恐怖主义的挑战。
然而，巴基斯坦从未抛弃阿富汗人民。40多年来，巴基斯坦收容了500多万阿富汗难民，为他们提供住所、教育、医疗保健和重建生活的机会。即使在今天，仍有近250万阿富汗人留在巴基斯坦，数十万阿富汗学生在巴基斯坦的大学学习。这些年轻的阿富汗人中，有许多人能说流利的乌尔都语和普什图语，他们在巴基斯坦人中间长大，有着同样的价值观和抱负。他们能够而且应该成为两国之间理解的桥梁。
巴基斯坦一再对阿富汗表现出善意。它促进了塔利班与国际社会之间的和平谈判，支持人道主义援助，并帮助阿富汗重新加入地区贸易路线。巴基斯坦一直希望看到一个和平、稳定和繁荣的阿富汗，因为一个安全的阿富汗对地区和平和巴基斯坦自身的发展，特别是与中亚的联系至关重要。
印度的角色：错位的伙伴关系
不幸的是，最近印度越来越多地介入阿富汗事务的迹象引起了人们的合理担忧。历史上，印度与阿富汗在地理、文化、宗教或语言上都没有联系。它与阿富汗人民没有边界，没有传统，没有信仰。印度试图在阿富汗建立影响力并非出于善意，而是出于与巴基斯坦的战略竞争。
几十年来，印度一直试图利用阿富汗领土破坏巴基斯坦的稳定。有可信和可核实的证据表明，印度通过其情报网络，在阿富汗境内支持针对巴基斯坦的恐怖活动，资助塔利班和巴基斯坦解放军等激进组织。巴基斯坦已向阿富汗当局和国际伙伴提交了这一证据。
因此，塔利班在与印度打交道时应保持谨慎。在美国占领阿富汗的20年间（2001-2021），印度是塔利班最坚定的反对者之一。它给他们贴上恐怖分子的标签，拒绝承认他们的合法性，并反对所有涉及他们的和平谈判。相比之下，在那些艰难的岁月里，巴基斯坦与塔利班保持了公开和间接的沟通，即使这样做会受到西方的批评。
大多数塔利班领导人要么在巴基斯坦接受教育，要么在那里生活多年。巴基斯坦在无数阿富汗人的长期斗争中为他们提供了避难所、住所和医疗服务。因此，现任塔利班政府对巴基斯坦表现出不信任，同时又向曾经称他们为敌人的国家示好，这令人深感失望。
印度和阿富汗之间的任何联盟，鉴于它们缺乏天然的亲和力，都是人为的，不能持久。在总理纳伦德拉·莫迪（Narendra Modi）领导的政府领导下，印度与穆斯林占多数的国家的关系很好地说明了这一点。莫迪政府以其受极端主义rss启发的印度教民族主义意识形态而闻名。印度在克什米尔的政策，它的反穆斯林立法，以及它对巴勒斯坦苦难的沉默都暴露了它的虚伪。塔利班作为一个伊斯兰国家的领导人，必须认清这些现实，明智地选择合作伙伴。
前进之路：和解战略
对巴基斯坦和阿富汗来说，和解之路并非不可能——它只需要诚实和承诺。两国从合作中获得的利益远远大于对抗。以下是重建信任和伙伴关系的务实方法：
加强外交渠道：外长、边防当局、军方代表之间的定期高层会晤应机制化。一个永久的联合委员会可以在安全问题升级之前帮助解决这些问题。
确保不干涉：阿富汗必须保证其领土不会被恐怖组织——无论是TTP、BLA还是外国情报网络——用来对付巴基斯坦。作为回报，巴基斯坦应避免采取可能被视为惩罚性或单方面的措施，例如突然关闭边境或限制贸易。
恢复经济合作：阿富汗是一个内陆国家，在过境贸易上严重依赖巴基斯坦。商品的顺畅流通对两国经济都有利。联合经济区、公路和铁路互联互通项目以及能源互联互通可以促进相互依存和稳定。
扩大人与人之间的接触：文化交流、学生奖学金和媒体合作可以打击虚假信息，重建公众信任。巴基斯坦大学的阿富汗毕业生可以担任非正式的亲善大使。
反恐合作：双方都面临跨国极端主义组织的威胁。联合情报共享和边境安全协调符合双方利益。
鼓励区域调解：卡塔尔、沙特阿拉伯和中国已被证明是促进和平的真诚伙伴。他们的持续接触可以提供信心，有助于双方继续走在对话的道路上。
促进积极的媒体叙事：双方媒体必须避免仇恨言论和煽动性报道。相反，他们应该强调共同的文化、信仰和共同的目标。
兄弟情谊胜过指责
互相指责很容易；伸出援助之手更难了。阿富汗和巴基斯坦是由伊斯兰教、地理和历史联系在一起的两个兄弟国家，它们承受不起分崩离析的后果。该地区的敌人受益于分裂，而非团结。对于那些希望看到穆斯林分裂和软弱的人来说，越过边境发射的每一颗子弹，媒体上的每一句愤怒的话，都是一种胜利。
巴基斯坦一直与阿富汗站在一起——无论是战争、占领还是危机。它今天继续这样做。阿富汗人民虽然骄傲和勇敢，但现在必须超越暂时的不满，认识到他们真正的朋友。印度的提议在短期内可能听起来很有吸引力，但它们是建立在机会主义的基础上，而不是博爱的基础上。
命运共同体
巴基斯坦和阿富汗的命运交织在一起。无论是孤立还是敌对，都不可能繁荣。两国都处在一个关键时刻：它们要么继续在相互猜疑的道路上走下去，要么重新发现几个世纪以来把它们联系在一起的兄弟情谊。
和平不会在一夜之间到来，但多哈的对话已经迈出了第一步。必须真诚落实，相互尊重，相互信任。全世界都在关注，但更重要的是，穆斯林世界希望这两个兄弟国家能够超越分歧，成为动荡地区的稳定支柱。
让智慧战胜感情，团结战胜分裂。阿富汗和巴基斯坦人民应该享有和平——和平不是遥远的梦想，而是共同的现实，再次成为兄弟。
( 注意： 本文是用AI翻译的，或有误差。请以原版英文为准。谢谢。)
Reference Link:- https://thinktank.pk/2025/10/21/afghanistan-pakistan-brothers-divided-by-misunderstanding-united-by-destiny/