Is the establishment of a Palestinian state possible under the current circumstances? Last week, we discussed the resolution passed in the UN General Assembly and the process of some Western countries recognizing the “imaginary state” of Palestine. Many friends thought that in these bad times, that was at least be some good news. In today’s session, we will discuss the ground realities in a bit more detail. The number of countries recognizing the “imaginary Palestinian state” at the UN has exceeded 157, and the series of speeches by leaders is still ongoing. While these speeches highlighted the helplessness of the United Nations, the American President and the Israeli Prime Minister made it clear, “Let’s see how this state is formed.” According to the Israeli Prime Minister, ninety percent of Israelis are not only opposed to a Palestinian state but also want to see the current war through to its logical conclusion, i.e., the removal of all Palestinians from Gaza. Let’s first talk about the statistics to make it easier to understand. Over the past seven decades, Palestinians have been divided into different segments, severing their interconnections. Israel’s population would be just over nine million, of which twenty- one percent, approximately two million, are Palestinian Arabs. Among them, eighty-three percent are Muslim, while the rest belong to other religions. Officially, this twenty-one percent of the population has fifteen seats in the Israeli parliament, but their status is not more than that of second-class citizens. Because Israel is a Jewish state where all rights belong to the Jews living there, and this reality is reflected in its laws, which make it a racist “Apartheid state,” exactly like the racist government of South Africa before 1994, where the black majority had no rights. Now, let’s come to the West Bank, where the Palestinian population is acknowledged to be around twenty-six to twenty-seven lakh (2.6-2.7 million), and the number of Israeli settlers is close to seven and a half lakh (750,000) and increasing daily. Under the 1993 Oslo Accords, this area was divided into three parts. Approximately sixty-one percent of the area is under Israeli administrative and military control, also called Area C. Its area is gradually increasing. In contrast, Area A and B have been divided into more than 165 areas in such a way that no territorial continuity remains. About 22% of Area B is under the joint control of the Palestinian Authority and Israel. Only 18% of the area, called Area A, is under the control of the Palestinian Authority. But even there, its administrative control is not more than that of a municipal body, although they have been given the flag, positions, etc., of a state. After October 7, 2023, while the world’s eyes are focused on Gaza, the gates of hell have been opened for the Palestinian people in the West Bank as well. Now, let’s turn to Gaza, where the population was approximately twenty-two lakh (2.2 million) and which has been subjected to genocide for almost two years now. In addition, there is a large number of Palestinian refugees living in camps in Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and Egypt. Their numbers are in the hundreds of thousands. While more than 157 UN member states have recognized an imaginary Palestinian state, what will be its features, and what will its territorial boundaries be? Everyone is silent on its details, except for the demand that Israel return to the pre-1967 war borders. For those who believe in Western efforts, a glance at the Oslo Accord and its results is sufficient. Now, let’s take a look at President Trump’s twenty-point program, which was presented in a joint press conference by the American President and the Israeli Prime Minister. For the details behind the scenes, we will have to wait for a book by some American. The most important point is that these points are not the fruit of negotiations between the conflicting parties but the result of mutual consultations among the powerful in the halls of power. “Who are these powerful people? You are wise, why should I tell you.” As I am finishing this writing today, in Egypt’s city of Sharm El- Sheikh, the details of the Trump Plan are being finalized between Israeli and Hamas representatives. Among Hamas representatives is the person for whose assassination a bombing was carried out in Qatar. What solution emerges from these negotiations will reach the people sooner or later, but ignoring some points would be equivalent to turning a blind eye to the facts. The first point is that Israeli society and the government were not, and are not, in favor of giving human rights to Palestinians. This plan contains nothing about a Palestinian state except for point number nineteen, which suggests that possibilities for future negotiations on Palestinian right to self-determination can be considered. There is no inclusion of any Palestinian in the proposed administration for Gaza. The proposed administrators include former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, a person about whom many in his own party believe his rightful place is in the dock at the Hague’s International Court, where he should answer for crimes against humanity in Iraq. You might remember that before the announcement of the Trump Plan, eight leaders from the Islamic/Arab world had approved the plan, but when the details emerged, they were different. The Qataris are angry that even their “mediatory role” is not mentioned. Egypt is quietly displeased not only because the role of the Palestinian Authority has been reduced, but also because the presence of the Israeli army along the Egyptian border in Gaza’s Rafah area has been accepted as a reality. Despite the apparent displeasure of these countries, their signatures are on this plan, and none have declared their withdrawal from it. Remember, there is no evidence that these eight countries consulted with the Palestinians before signing this agreement. The key to authority is in Netanyahu’s hands. Whether Israeli forces withdraw from Gaza or not, from how much area, and when – all these decisions are in Netanyahu’s hands. The plan sets no timeline for the withdrawal of Israeli forces. How much aid should be given and the provision of resources for reconstruction will also be under his authority. There will be no role for any Palestinian in the reconstruction of Gaza, and Gaza’s connection with the West Bank will be completely severed. The Israeli Prime Minister’s conditions regarding the role of the Palestinian Authority, which has spent over thirty years trying to please Israel, include the withdrawal of cases against Israel in the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the International Court of Justice, the cessation of aid to the families of Palestinian martyrs, and changes to the Palestinian school curricula. Only then might they be considered for any role. These eight countries are expected to persuade Hamas to lay down its arms, a task that Israel, with all its tanks, planes, and bombings, could not accomplish in two years. The reality is that precisely when global public and governmental opinion was turning against Israel, and international acceptance of an independent and sovereign Palestinian state was gaining momentum, the leaders of the Arab and Islamic world, by signing this agreement, have ensured that in the near future, a Palestinian state cannot rise from the ashes of the destruction wrought by Israeli retaliation. That’s enough for today.
Dr. Iftikhar Ahmed UK
Disclaimer : The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not represent the official stance of Global Silk Route Research Alliance (GSRRA)- Think Tank . The GSRRA is not responsible for any errors, omissions, or consequences arising from the use of this content.