（下边有中文翻译请继续看到底。 谢谢。）
Despite a formal ceasefire agreement along the Line of Control (LoC), the relationship between India and Pakistan remains tense and fragile. Far from peace, we are witnessing a new phase of strategic hostility — a cold war fueled by distrust, history, and expanding regional ambitions. While the guns may be silent for now, diplomatic offensives, political rhetoric, and covert actions indicate that the calm is temporary and deceptive.
Contents
A History of Unkept PromisesHuman Rights: A Dark ChapterAn Untrustworthy International ActorPlaying Politics in WashingtonThe Ceasefire: A Pause or a Ploy?The Road Ahead
At the heart of this complex and troubled relationship lies India’s long record of violating bilateral and international agreements, a pattern that has cast a shadow not only over its relations with Pakistan but also with almost every neighboring country in South Asia. The trust deficit is not a recent phenomenon but a deeply entrenched reality stemming from India’s actions since its very inception in 1947.
A History of Unkept Promises
One of the earliest and most profound betrayals is India’s failure to honor United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions on Jammu and Kashmir. Passed in 1948 and reaffirmed multiple times, these resolutions call for a plebiscite to allow the people of Jammu and Kashmir to decide their future. India has consistently rejected these international commitments and instead taken unilateral measures — most notably, the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019 — which violate both the letter and spirit of international law and bilateral understandings with Pakistan.
This is not an isolated instance. India’s record of reneging on deals extends across borders. With China, border agreements have repeatedly been violated, most recently resulting in bloody clashes in the Galwan Valley. With Nepal, historical border disputes have been inflamed by unilateral cartographic changes. With Bangladesh, promises over water-sharing, especially of the Teesta River, have been deferred indefinitely despite years of negotiations.
Myanmar, Bhutan, Maldives, and Sri Lanka have all, at different times, found themselves on the receiving end of India’s shifting policies, economic coercion, and diplomatic pressure. The recurring theme is one of opportunism, not partnership; dominance, not cooperation.
Human Rights: A Dark Chapter
India’s internal policies, particularly under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership, have drawn serious concern from human rights organizations across the globe. The situation in Indian-administered Kashmir is particularly dire, where the presence of hundreds of thousands of security personnel, a near-permanent state of lockdown, mass detentions, and the suppression of political dissent have created one of the world’s most militarized zones. According to multiple credible sources including UN reports, India has committed widespread and systematic violations of human rights and international humanitarian law in Kashmir — from arbitrary arrests and torture to enforced disappearances and denial of freedom of expression.
The treatment of minorities, especially Muslims, under Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has worsened India’s human rights record. The Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), the NRC process, mob lynchings, and the marginalization of voices critical of the state paint a grim picture. It would not be an exaggeration to say that India, once hailed as the world’s largest democracy, is now veering toward majoritarianism and authoritarianism.
India’s disregard for the Geneva Conventions, its draconian use of counterterrorism laws, and repeated suppression of journalists and activists indicate a disturbing erosion of democratic norms. As these violations accumulate, they not only tarnish India’s global image but also deepen regional mistrust.
An Untrustworthy International Actor
India’s foreign policy under the guise of “strategic autonomy” has increasingly taken the shape of duplicity. For instance, during President Biden’s administration, Prime Minister Modi presented India as a steadfast ally of the United States. Yet, he continued importing discounted oil from Russia in large quantities, reportedly re-exporting it to European markets at a profit — clearly against the spirit of Western sanctions on Moscow.
Even more problematic is India’s reported double game in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. While showcasing diplomatic solidarity with Russia, New Delhi allegedly supplied military equipment to Ukraine and covertly facilitated the presence of Indian nationals in the Ukrainian conflict zone. Several confirmed reports suggest Indian nationals have died fighting in Ukraine, raising uncomfortable questions about India’s clandestine role in the war.
Moreover, despite pledging not to import energy from sanctioned nations, India continued its oil and gas trade with Iran, undercutting international norms and commitments. These actions point toward a recurring pattern of exploiting every side for its own strategic and economic gain, regardless of ethical, diplomatic, or legal obligations.
Playing Politics in Washington
India’s duplicity has not gone unnoticed in Washington. During the 2024 U.S. Presidential Elections, Prime Minister Modi openly supported President Biden. However, when former President Donald Trump returned to power, Modi swiftly changed his tone, attempting to regain favor with the new administration. But seasoned leaders have long memories. President Trump is unlikely to overlook Modi’s past alliances and opportunism.
This inconsistency undermines India’s credibility as a global partner. It exposes a transactional mindset where values are conveniently shelved in favor of momentary advantages.
The Ceasefire: A Pause or a Ploy?
The 2021 LoC ceasefire between India and Pakistan brought temporary relief. However, instead of utilizing this pause to pursue peace, India seems to be leveraging it to recalibrate its military posture. Reports indicate that India continues to acquire cutting-edge defense systems from Israel, the United States, and Europe, expanding its military capacities along the border.
Simultaneously, India has launched a full-spectrum diplomatic offensive against Pakistan — from lobbying against it in multilateral forums to vilifying it in the global media. These efforts, backed by a disinformation campaign, are part of a broader strategy to isolate Pakistan diplomatically and justify aggressive actions in the future.
India’s recent activities signal that it may be using the ceasefire as a strategic pause — not to build peace, but to prepare for confrontation. Pakistan, therefore, must remain vigilant, united, and fully prepared to respond to any misadventure.
The Road Ahead
India’s history of defying agreements, violating international norms, and adopting an opportunistic foreign policy model has led to a dangerous situation in South Asia. It has made the region unstable and unpredictable. The world must recognize the risks posed by India’s actions — not just to Pakistan, but to regional peace, human rights, and international law.
Pakistan, on its part, has consistently advocated for peaceful coexistence and regional cooperation. Despite provocations, Pakistan remains committed to dialogue, peace, and diplomacy. But peace is a two-way street. It cannot be sustained if one party keeps shifting goalposts, breaking promises, and preparing for war.
As tensions simmer beneath the surface, the cold war between India and Pakistan poses grave risks. The international community, especially major powers and global institutions, must urge India to abide by its legal commitments and uphold the principles of human rights and peaceful coexistence. Stability in South Asia depends on trust and adherence to international norms, not on power politics or opportunism.
Until that happens, Pakistan has no choice but to remain alert, strong, and united in the face of a neighbor whose intentions remain, at best, uncertain.
尽管沿控制线（LoC）签署了正式停火协议，但印度和巴基斯坦之间的关系仍然紧张而脆弱。我们看到的远不是和平，而是战略敌对的新阶段——一场由不信任、历史和不断扩大的地区野心推动的冷战。虽然枪炮声可能暂时沉寂，但外交攻势、政治言论和秘密行动表明，平静是暂时的，具有欺骗性。
内容
未兑现承诺的历史人权：黑暗的一章不值得信任的国际演员在华盛顿玩弄政治停火：暂停还是策略？前面的路
这种复杂而麻烦的关系的核心是印度长期以来违反双边和国际协议的记录，这种模式不仅给它与巴基斯坦的关系蒙上了阴影，也给它与几乎所有南亚邻国的关系蒙上了阴影。信任赤字不是最近才出现的现象，而是印度自1947年成立以来所采取的行动所造成的根深蒂固的现实。
《未兑现承诺的历史
最早和最深刻的背叛之一是印度未能遵守联合国安理会（UNSC）关于查谟和克什米尔的决议。这些决议于1948年通过并多次重申，要求举行公民投票，让查谟和克什米尔人民决定他们的未来。印度一贯拒绝这些国际承诺，并采取单边措施，最明显的是于2019年8月废除第370条，这既违反国际法的文字和精神，也违反了与巴基斯坦的双边谅解。
这不是一个孤立的例子。印度违背协议的记录跨越了国界。与中国的边界协议一再被违反，最近的一次导致了加尔万河谷的血腥冲突。与尼泊尔，历史上的边界争端因单方面改变地图而激化。与孟加拉国，尽管经过多年的谈判，关于水资源共享的承诺，尤其是蒂斯塔河的承诺，一直被无限期推迟。
缅甸、不丹、马尔代夫和斯里兰卡都在不同时期发现自己处于印度政策转变、经济胁迫和外交压力的接收端。反复出现的主题是机会主义，而不是伙伴关系；支配，而不是合作。
人权：黑暗的一章
印度的内部政策，特别是在总理纳伦德拉·莫迪的领导下，引起了全球人权组织的严重关切。印控克什米尔的局势尤其严峻，数十万安全人员的存在、近乎永久的封锁状态、大规模拘留和对政治异见的压制，造就了世界上军事化程度最高的地区之一。根据包括联合国报告在内的多个可靠来源，印度在克什米尔犯下了广泛和系统的侵犯人权和国际人道主义法的行为，从任意逮捕和酷刑到强迫失踪和剥夺言论自由。
《公民身份修正法案》（CAA）、NRC程序、暴民私刑以及批评政府的声音被边缘化，描绘了一幅严峻的画面。毫不夸张地说，曾经被誉为世界上最大的民主国家的印度，现在正转向多数主义和威权主义。
印度无视《日内瓦公约》（Geneva Conventions），严厉使用反恐法律，一再打压记者和活动人士，这些都表明，印度对民主规范的侵蚀令人不安。随着这些违规行为的累积，它们玷污了印度的全球形象，加深了地区不信任。
一个不值得信赖的国际演员
印度打着“战略自主”的幌子，其外交政策越来越表里不一。例如，在拜登总统执政期间，莫迪总理将印度描述为美国的坚定盟友。然而，他继续从俄罗斯大量进口折价石油，据报道，他将这些石油再出口到欧洲市场，并从中获利，这显然违背了西方对莫斯科制裁的精神。
更有问题的是印度在俄乌冲突中的双重游戏。在展示与俄罗斯外交团结的同时，新德里据称向乌克兰提供军事装备，并暗中为印度国民在乌克兰冲突地区的存在提供便利。一些经证实的报道称，印度公民在乌克兰的战斗中丧生，这引发了人们对印度在这场战争中扮演的秘密角色的不安质疑。
此外，尽管印度承诺不从受制裁国家进口能源，但印度仍继续与伊朗进行石油和天然气贸易，这违反了国际准则和承诺。这些行动指向了一种反复出现的模式，即为了自己的战略和经济利益而利用每一方，而不顾道德、外交或法律义务。
在华盛顿玩弄政治
印度的口是心非并未引起华盛顿的注意。在2024年美国总统选举中，莫迪总理公开支持拜登总统。然而，当前总统唐纳德·特朗普重新掌权后，莫迪迅速改变了语气，试图重新获得新政府的青睐。但经验丰富的领导人记忆力很好。特朗普总统不太可能忽视莫迪过去的联盟和机会主义。
这种不一致损害了印度作为全球伙伴的信誉。它暴露了一种交易心态，在这种心态中，为了一时的利益，价值观被方便地搁置起来。
停火：暂停还是策略？
2021年印度和巴基斯坦之间的实控线停火带来了暂时的缓解。然而，印度似乎没有利用这一暂停来追求和平，而是利用它来重新调整其军事姿态。报告指出，印度继续从以色列、美国和欧洲获得尖端防御系统，扩大其沿边界的军事能力。
与此同时，印度对巴基斯坦发起了全方位的外交攻势，从在多边论坛上游说反对巴基斯坦，到在全球媒体上诋毁巴基斯坦。这些努力以虚假信息运动为后盾，是在外交上孤立巴基斯坦的更广泛战略的一部分，并为未来的侵略行动辩护。
印度最近的活动表明，它可能将停火作为战略暂停，不是为了建立和平，而是为对抗做准备。因此，巴基斯坦必须保持警惕，团结一致，并充分准备对任何不幸事件作出反应。
前面的路
印度藐视协议、违反国际准则和采取机会主义外交政策模式的历史导致了南亚的危险局势。它使该地区变得不稳定和不可预测。世界必须认识到印度的行动所带来的风险——不仅是对巴基斯坦，而且对地区和平、人权和国际法。
巴基斯坦一贯主张和平共处与区域合作。尽管受到挑衅，巴基斯坦仍然致力于对话、和平与外交。但和平是双向的。如果一方不断改变目标、违背承诺、准备战争，这种关系就无法持续下去。
随着紧张局势在表面下酝酿，印度和巴基斯坦之间的冷战构成了严重的风险。国际社会，特别是大国和全球机构，必须敦促印度遵守其法律承诺，维护人权与和平共处的原则。南亚的稳定取决于信任和遵守国际准则，而不是依靠强权政治或机会主义。
在这种情况发生之前，巴基斯坦别无选择，只能保持警惕、强大和团结，面对这个意图充其量也不确定的邻国。
( 注意： 本文是用AI翻译的，或有误差。请以原版英文为准。谢谢。)
Reference Link:- https://minutemirror.com.pk/india-pakistan-tensions-ceasefire-amidst-deepening-cold-war-395332/