（下边有中文翻译请继续看到底。 谢谢。）
The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), signed in 1960, has long stood as a model of water-sharing between two hostile neighbors—India and Pakistan. 1960年签署的《印度河水域条约》（IWT）长期以来一直是印度和巴基斯坦这两个敌对邻国共享水资源的典范。
The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), signed in 1960, has long stood as a model of water-sharing between two hostile neighbors—India and Pakistan. Brokered by the World Bank, the treaty has survived multiple wars and decades of political hostility, making it one of the most successful examples of transboundary water cooperation in modern history.
Yet today, this historic treaty faces its gravest challenge. India’s recent signals to unilaterally suspend or renegotiate the IWT are not only a violation of international law but also an act of aggression against the people of Pakistan, whose lives and livelihoods depend on the waters of the Indus River system.
India’s move, framed as a retaliatory measure following the Pahalgam incident, is both illogical and illegitimate. The Pahalgam attack was not a cross-border act of terrorism, as India claims, but more likely a false flag operation meant to justify aggressive posturing and distract from India’s own internal crises, including growing insurgencies, communal unrest, and systematic discrimination against minorities under the leadership of Narendra Modi.
The Indus Waters Treaty: A Brief Overview
The IWT was signed on September 19, 1960, between Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistani President Ayub Khan, with the World Bank acting as a third-party guarantor. Under the treaty:
- Pakistan was granted exclusive rights over the western rivers: Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.
- India retained control over the eastern rivers: Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej.
- Both countries were allowed limited usage rights on the other’s waters for specific purposes like irrigation, hydropower, and domestic needs under strict guidelines.
- The World Bank played a vital role—not only in facilitating negotiations but also in guaranteeing dispute resolution mechanisms, including arbitration panels and neutral expert reviews.
India’s Unilateral Actions: Violation of International Law
India’s threats to unilaterally “modify” or withdraw from the IWT amount to a blatant violation of international law, particularly the 1969 Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, which bars unilateral withdrawal from such legally binding agreements unless both parties agree or in case of material breach.
The Pahalgam incident, which India hastily linked to Pakistan without evidence, has been used as a pretext. Yet, these narrative lacks credibility. Pakistan strongly condemns the attack and categorically denies involvement. Instead, it has called for a neutral international investigation, which India has refused—raising serious doubts about the authenticity of India’s claims.
The Reality Behind the Pahalgam Incident
The Pahalgam incident must be understood in the broader context of India’s internal unrest. With over 150 active insurgencies across Indian states—including in Assam, Manipur, Chhattisgarh, and Kashmir—India’s social fabric is under tremendous strain. The Modi government’s fascist policies, targeting Muslims, Christians, Dalits, Sikhs, and tribal communities, have only fueled dissent and rebellion.
It is highly plausible that the Pahalgam incident was a reaction to India’s discriminatory and repressive governance, and not the result of external interference. The Modi regime’s urge to blame Pakistan serves dual purposes: it diverts attention from domestic failures and manufactures a pretext for escalation.
Implications of Suspending the IWT
India’s attempt to suspend or abrogate the IWT would have catastrophic consequences for Pakistan:
- Agricultural Devastation: Pakistan’s agriculture, which supports nearly 70% of its population, depends heavily on the waters of the Indus basin. Any disruption would affect food security and livelihoods.
- Hydropower Shortage: Several hydropower projects depend on consistent river flows. Interruptions would worsen Pakistan’s energy crisis.
- Environmental Disaster: Reduced river flow would increase desertification in Sindh and Balochistan, leading to long-term ecological damage.
- Humanitarian Crisis: Water scarcity could lead to displacement, health crises, and unrest across the country.
Pakistan’s Response: Legal and Diplomatic Pathways
Despite the existential threat posed by India’s reckless behavior, Pakistan remains committed to peace. However, Pakistan reserves the right to respond decisively if India weaponizes water—a basic human right.
Legal and diplomatic responses available to Pakistan include:
International Arbitration:
- Invoke the dispute resolution mechanisms under the IWT, including referring the case to a Court of Arbitration or a Neutral Expert, with the support of the World Bank.
- File complaints at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) under customary international law and the Vienna Convention.
United Nations Intervention:
- Raise the matter at the UN Security Council and UN General Assembly to expose India’s actions as a threat to international peace and stability.
- Seek intervention from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) to highlight the humanitarian consequences.
Global Diplomacy:
- Engage with China, the United States, European Union, Russia, and Gulf States to build pressure on India.
- Mobilize the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) to advocate for restraint and mediation.
World Bank Engagement:
- Reaffirm the World Bank’s responsibility as a guarantor of the treaty, demanding its active role in preventing treaty violations.
Can Pakistan Use Force? A Responsible Restraint
- While the IWT is a lifeline for Pakistan, Islamabad does not believe in war as the first option. Pakistan is fully aware of the disastrous implications of a military conflict between two nuclear-armed states.
- Using force would be a last resort, reserved only for an existential crisis, such as the complete blockage of river waters, which could amount to an act of war under international law. Even then, Pakistan would exhaust all legal, diplomatic, and peaceful means first.
- Pakistan’s strategic posture remains defensive, responsible, and peace-oriented—unlike India’s aggressive and expansionist attitude.
India’s Recklessness: A Threat to Regional and Global Peace
- Under Prime Minister Modi, India has exhibited a consistent pattern of intolerance, authoritarianism, and militarism. From revoking Kashmir’s special status to brutalizing minorities, and now threatening Pakistan’s access to water, India is fast becoming a regional bully.
- The international community must recognize that India’s actions—whether in Kashmir, Manipur, or on the water front—are part of a broader ultranationalist agenda aimed at establishing regional hegemony through coercion and violence.
- India’s refusal to participate in peaceful dialogue, and its pattern of false flag operations and war hysteria, reveals its true intentions: not peace, but dominance.
Pakistan’s Struggle for Peace and Justice
- Pakistan stands at a crossroads—but also stands firm. Our commitment is to peace, coexistence, and sustainable development. We understand that mutual cooperation, not confrontation, is the way forward for the 1.7 billion people of South Asia.
- India must not be allowed to undermine peace through aggressive and unilateral actions. The Indus Waters Treaty must be upheld—not just as a legal obligation but as a symbol of regional hope.
- Pakistan’s message is clear: We will not provoke war, but we will not bow to injustice. We urge the global community to act—to restrain India, support legal mechanisms, and protect regional peace.
- Let us not allow water, the source of life, to become the cause of death and destruction. Let wisdom prevail over arrogance, and justice triumph over tyranny.
1960年签署的《印度河水域条约》（IWT）长期以来一直是印度和巴基斯坦这两个敌对邻国共享水资源的典范。在世界银行（World Bank）的斡旋下，该条约经受住了多次战争和数十年的政治敌意，成为现代历史上跨境水资源合作最成功的范例之一。
然而，今天，这一历史性条约面临着最严峻的挑战。印度最近发出的单方面中止或重新谈判内河条约的信号不仅违反了国际法，而且是对巴基斯坦人民的侵略行为，巴基斯坦人民的生命和生计依赖于印度河水系的水。
印度此举是在巴哈尔甘事件后的报复措施，是不合逻辑和非法的。帕哈尔甘的袭击并非印度所说的跨境恐怖主义行为，而更像是一场虚假的行动，旨在为印度的侵略姿态辩护，并转移人们对印度国内危机的注意力，包括纳伦德拉·莫迪（Narendra Modi）领导下日益增长的叛乱、社区骚乱和对少数民族的系统性歧视。
印度河水域条约：简要概述
IWT于1960年9月19日由印度总理贾瓦哈拉尔·尼赫鲁和巴基斯坦总统阿尤布·汗签署，世界银行作为第三方担保人。根据条约：
巴基斯坦被授予对西部河流的专有权：印度河、杰勒姆河和奇纳布河。
印度仍然控制着东部的河流：拉维河、比亚斯河和萨特莱季河。
在严格的指导下，两国都被允许对对方的水域进行有限的使用权，用于灌溉、水力发电和国内需求等特定目的。
世界银行不仅在促进谈判方面发挥了重要作用，而且在保障争端解决机制，包括仲裁小组和中立的专家审查方面也发挥了重要作用。
印度的单边行动：违反国际法
印度威胁单方面“修改”或退出《内陆条约》的行为公然违反了国际法，特别是1969年《维也纳条约法公约》，该公约禁止单方面退出此类具有法律约束力的协议，除非双方同意或在重大违约的情况下。
印度在没有证据的情况下匆忙将巴哈尔甘事件与巴基斯坦联系起来，并以此为借口。然而，这种说法缺乏可信度。巴基斯坦强烈谴责这次袭击，并断然否认参与。相反，它呼吁进行中立的国际调查，而印度拒绝了这一要求，这让人们对印度说法的真实性产生了严重怀疑。
巴哈尔甘事件背后的现实
巴哈尔甘事件必须放在印度内部动荡的大背景下理解。印度各邦——包括阿萨姆邦、曼尼普尔邦、恰蒂斯加尔邦和克什米尔——有150多起活跃的叛乱活动，印度的社会结构正处于巨大的压力之下。莫迪政府针对穆斯林、基督徒、达利特人、锡克教徒和部落社区的法西斯政策，只会助长异议和叛乱。
巴哈尔甘事件是对印度歧视性和压制性治理的反应，而不是外部干涉的结果，这是非常合理的。莫迪政权急于指责巴基斯坦有双重目的：它转移了人们对国内失败的注意力，并制造了升级的借口。
暂停IWT的影响
印度暂停或废除内河条约的企图将给巴基斯坦带来灾难性后果：
农业破坏：巴基斯坦的农业养活了近70%的人口，严重依赖印度河流域的水。任何破坏都会影响粮食安全和生计。
水电短缺：一些水电项目依赖于稳定的河流流量。中断将使巴基斯坦的能源危机恶化。
环境灾害：河流流量减少会加剧信德省和俾路支省的荒漠化，导致长期的生态破坏。
人道主义危机：缺水可能导致流离失所、健康危机和全国动乱。
巴基斯坦的回应：法律和外交途径
尽管印度鲁莽的行为构成了生存威胁，巴基斯坦仍然致力于和平。但是，如果印度将水作为一项基本人权武器化，巴基斯坦保留果断应对的权利。
巴基斯坦可得到的法律和外交回应包括：
国际仲裁:
在世界银行的支持下，援引《内部法》下的争端解决机制，包括将案件提交仲裁法院或中立专家。
根据习惯国际法和《维也纳公约》向国际法院（ICJ）提出申诉。
联合国干预：
在联合国安理会和联合国大会上提出这个问题，揭露印度的行为是对国际和平与稳定的威胁。
寻求联合国环境规划署（UNEP）和联合国人权理事会（UNHRC）的干预，以突出人道主义后果。
全球外交:
与中国、美国、欧盟、俄罗斯和海湾国家接触，向印度施加压力。
动员伊斯兰合作组织和上海合作组织倡导克制和调解。
世界银行参与：
重申世界银行作为条约担保人的责任，要求其在防止违反条约方面发挥积极作用。
巴基斯坦能动用武力吗？负责任的约束
虽然内河流域是巴基斯坦的生命线，但伊斯兰堡不认为战争是第一选择。巴基斯坦充分认识到两个拥有核武器的国家之间发生军事冲突的灾难性后果。
使用武力将是最后的手段，只有在存在危机时才会使用，比如河水完全堵塞，根据国际法，这可能构成战争行为。即便如此，巴基斯坦也会首先动用所有法律、外交和和平手段。
巴基斯坦的战略姿态仍然是防御性的、负责任的、以和平为导向的——不像印度的侵略和扩张主义态度。
印度的鲁莽：对地区和全球和平的威胁
在莫迪总理的领导下，印度一直表现出不宽容、威权主义和军国主义的模式。从取消克什米尔的特殊地位到残酷对待少数民族，再到现在威胁巴基斯坦的水资源，印度正迅速成为一个地区恶霸。
国际社会必须认识到，印度的行动——无论是在克什米尔、曼尼普尔还是在沿海地区——都是其更广泛的极端民族主义议程的一部分，其目的是通过胁迫和暴力建立地区霸权。
印度拒绝参与和平对话，其假旗行动和战争歇斯底里的模式揭示了其真正意图：不是和平，而是统治。
巴基斯坦争取和平与正义的斗争
巴基斯坦正站在十字路口，但立场坚定。我们的承诺是和平、共存和可持续发展。我们明白，合作而不是对抗，才是南亚17亿人民的前进之路。
绝不能允许印度通过侵略和单方面行动破坏和平。《印度河水域条约》必须得到维护，这不仅是一项法律义务，而且是该地区希望的象征。
巴基斯坦的信息很明确：我们不会挑起战争，但我们不会向不公正低头。我们敦促国际社会采取行动，约束印度，支持法律机制，保护地区和平。
让我们不要让水这个生命之源成为死亡和毁灭的原因。让智慧战胜傲慢，让正义战胜暴政。
( 注意： 本文是用AI翻译的，或有误差。请以原版英文为准。谢谢。)
Reference Link:- https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2025/05/03/the-indus-waters-treaty-under-threat-indias-hostile-posture-and-pakistans-call-for-peace/