（下边有中文翻译请继续看到底。 谢谢。）
The ongoing Syrian crisis, which began as a civil uprising in 2011, has transformed into one of the most protracted and devastating conflicts of the 21st century. While its toll on Syria is immeasurable, its ramifications extend well beyond its borders, significantly impacting neighboring Türkiye. With a history of complex relations, geopolitical entanglements, and shared cultural ties, the Syrian crisis has reshaped Türkiye’s domestic and foreign policy. This article delves into the historical relationship between Syria and Türkiye, the crisis’s impact on Türkiye, and the potential future of their bilateral relations.
Relations between Türkiye and Syria have long been marked by a mix of cooperation and contention. Deep historical, cultural, and economic ties have often clashed with territorial disputes and political differences. One of the most contentious issues remains the status of Hatay Province, which was incorporated into Türkiye in 1939.
Syria, however, has never formally recognized this annexation. Another major source of tension stems from water rights, particularly Türkiye’s construction of dams on the Euphrates and Tigris rivers, which Syria criticizes for reducing downstream water flow. Additionally, Türkiye’s concerns over Kurdish militancy have complicated their relationship for decades. Syria once provided sanctuary to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a group designated as a terrorist organization by Türkiye, exacerbating tensions until the late 1990s, when Damascus expelled PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan under Turkish pressure.
Türkiye’s involvement in the current Syrian crisis has been shaped by both humanitarian concerns and national security imperatives. As the host of over 3.6 million Syrian refugees—the largest such population in the world—Türkiye has demonstrated notable generosity. Yet, the refugee crisis has placed immense strain on its economy, infrastructure, and social fabric, fueling domestic political tensions. Ankara has also been a key supporter of Syrian opposition forces, initially aiming to oust Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and replace his regime with one more aligned with Turkish interests. Additionally, Türkiye has launched multiple military operations in northern Syria to counter the PKK-affiliated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and its armed wing, the People’s Protection Units (YPG). Ankara views the YPG’s growing influence near its borders as a direct threat to its territorial integrity.
The Syrian crisis has profoundly impacted Türkiye in economic, security, political, and diplomatic terms. Hosting millions of refugees has cost Türkiye billions of dollars at a time of domestic economic challenges. The disruption of trade routes with Syria has further harmed Türkiye’s export-driven economy. Security concerns are another pressing issue, as the presence of terrorist groups near Türkiye’s southern border has led to frequent cross-border attacks, intensifying domestic security fears. Although Turkish military interventions have mitigated some threats, they have also drawn international criticism. On the political front, the refugee crisis has become a deeply polarizing issue. Opposition parties have openly criticized the government’s open-door refugee policy, while growing public resentment risks fueling social unrest. Türkiye’s active role in Syria has also strained its relations with key international players, including Russia, Iran, and the United States. Balancing these competing interests while pursuing its own national objectives remains a considerable diplomatic challenge.
The future of Syria remains uncertain, but its developments will inevitably influence Türkiye’s role in the region. If the Assad regime consolidates power and gains reintegration into the international community, Türkiye may face growing pressure to normalize relations with Damascus. Such a shift would require Ankara to reconcile its long-standing opposition to Assad with its broader geopolitical interests. Conversely, the establishment of an autonomous Kurdish region in northern Syria would be unacceptable for Türkiye, potentially escalating military operations and further entrenching the conflict. Prolonged instability in Syria, meanwhile, would exacerbate the refugee crisis and intensify security threats, entangling Türkiye even further in the regional quagmire.
The future of Türkiye-Syria relations will largely depend on whether both nations are willing to compromise. Pragmatic cooperation could emerge in areas such as border security, refugee repatriation, and counterterrorism, but this would require significant concessions and international guarantees. Alternatively, if the underlying disputes—particularly regarding the Kurdish question and Türkiye’s support for opposition forces—remain unresolved, hostility will likely persist, perpetuating regional instability. Conditional normalization may be another possibility, where Türkiye leverages its influence in northern Syria to extract concessions from the Assad regime.
The Syrian crisis has also reshaped regional and global geopolitics. Rivalries among Türkiye, Iran, and Saudi Arabia have intensified as each nation pursues its interests in Syria, influencing the broader Middle East landscape. On a global scale, Syria has become a theater for competition between Russia and the United States, with Türkiye positioned as a key player in this strategic contest. The ongoing foreign interventions, including Türkiye’s military presence, further complicate Syria’s already fragile territorial integrity.
The Syrian crisis has left an indelible mark on Türkiye, testing its resilience and reshaping its foreign policy priorities. While the path forward remains uncertain, resolving the conflict will require collective efforts from all stakeholders, including Türkiye. For Ankara, balancing its national interests with regional stability and international norms will be critical. Whether Türkiye chooses cooperation or confrontation will determine not only its relationship with Syria but also its broader role in an evolving geopolitical landscape.
叙利亚危机始于2011年的一场国内起义，目前已演变为21世纪最持久、最具破坏性的冲突之一。虽然这场战争对叙利亚造成的损失无法估量，但其后果远远超出了其边界，对邻国叙利亚产生了重大影响。由于历史上复杂的关系、地缘政治纠葛和共同的文化纽带，叙利亚危机重塑了土耳其的内政和外交政策。本文将深入探讨叙利亚与乌克兰共和国共和国之间的历史关系、危机对叙利亚乌克兰共和国共和国的影响以及两国双边关系的潜在未来。
长期以来，土耳其与叙利亚的关系一直是合作与争论并存的。深厚的历史、文化和经济联系经常与领土争端和政治分歧发生冲突。最有争议的问题之一仍然是哈塔伊省的地位，该省于1939年被并入土耳其。
然而，叙利亚从未正式承认这一吞并。两国关系紧张的另一个主要原因是水权问题，特别是土耳其在幼发拉底河和底格里斯河上修建水坝，叙利亚批评这些水坝减少了下游的水流。此外，土耳其政府对库尔德武装的担忧使两国关系几十年来变得复杂。叙利亚曾经为库尔德工人党（PKK）提供庇护，该组织被土耳其政府认定为恐怖组织，这加剧了紧张局势，直到20世纪90年代末，大马士革在土耳其的压力下驱逐了库尔德工人党领导人阿卜杜拉Öcalan。
人道主义关切和国家安全需要都影响了土耳其介入当前的叙利亚危机。作为世界上人口最多的360多万叙利亚难民的东道国，土耳其表现出了显著的慷慨。然而，难民危机给其经济、基础设施和社会结构带来了巨大压力，加剧了国内政治紧张局势。安卡拉也是叙利亚反对派力量的关键支持者，最初的目标是推翻叙利亚总统阿萨德（Bashar al-Assad），用一个符合土耳其利益的政权取代他的政权。此外，“叙利亚革命军”还在叙利亚北部发动了多次军事行动，打击库尔德工人党下属的叙利亚民主力量（SDF）及其武装分支人民保护部队（YPG）。安卡拉将YPG在其边境附近日益增长的影响力视为对其领土完整的直接威胁。
叙利亚危机在经济、安全、政治和外交方面深刻影响了土耳其。在国内经济面临挑战的时候，收容数百万难民已经花费了土耳其数十亿美元。与叙利亚的贸易路线中断进一步损害了土耳其的出口导向型经济。安全问题是另一个紧迫的问题，因为恐怖组织在刚果民主共和国南部边境附近的存在导致频繁的跨境袭击，加剧了对国内安全的担忧。尽管土耳其的军事干预减轻了一些威胁，但也招致了国际社会的批评。在政治方面，难民危机已经成为一个严重分化的问题。反对党公开批评政府的开放难民政策，而日益增长的公众不满情绪可能加剧社会动荡。土耳其在叙利亚的积极作用也使其与包括俄罗斯、伊朗和美国在内的主要国际参与者的关系紧张。在追求自己的国家目标的同时，平衡这些相互竞争的利益仍然是一个相当大的外交挑战。
叙利亚的未来仍然不确定，但其事态发展将不可避免地影响叙利亚在该地区的作用。如果阿萨德政权巩固权力并重新融入国际社会，土耳其可能会面临越来越大的压力，要求与大马士革实现关系正常化。这种转变需要安卡拉调和其长期以来对阿萨德的反对与更广泛的地缘政治利益。相反，在叙利亚北部建立一个库尔德自治区对库尔德武装来说是不可接受的，这可能会使军事行动升级，并进一步加剧冲突。与此同时，叙利亚的长期不稳定将加剧难民危机，加剧安全威胁，使叙利亚进一步陷入地区泥潭。
土耳其与叙利亚关系的未来将在很大程度上取决于两国是否愿意妥协。在边境安全、难民遣返和反恐等领域可能出现务实合作，但这需要重大让步和国际保障。或者，如果潜在的争端——特别是关于库尔德问题和土耳其政府对反对派力量的支持——得不到解决，敌意可能会持续下去，使地区不稳定永久化。有条件的正常化可能是另一种可能性，在这种情况下，真主党利用其在叙利亚北部的影响力，迫使阿萨德政权做出让步。
叙利亚危机还重塑了地区和全球地缘政治。土耳其、伊朗和沙特阿拉伯之间的竞争加剧，因为每个国家都在叙利亚追求自己的利益，影响了更广泛的中东格局。在全球范围内，叙利亚已经成为俄罗斯和美国之间竞争的舞台，而叙利亚则被定位为这场战略竞赛的关键参与者。正在进行的外国干预，包括土耳其的军事存在，使叙利亚本已脆弱的领土完整进一步复杂化。
叙利亚危机给土耳其留下了不可磨灭的印记，考验着它的复原力，重塑着它的外交政策重点。虽然前进的道路仍然不确定，但解决冲突需要包括刚果民主共和国在内的所有利益攸关方共同努力。对安卡拉来说，在国家利益与地区稳定和国际规范之间取得平衡至关重要。俄罗斯选择合作还是对抗，不仅将决定其与叙利亚的关系，还将决定其在不断演变的地缘政治格局中扮演的更广泛角色。
( 注意： 本文是用AI翻译的，或有误差。请以原版英文为准。谢谢。)
Reference Link:- https://news.az/news/syrias-future-how-shifts-in-the-conflict-could-impact-turkiye