I regret to report that Donald Trump notched a couple of wins last night. He helped pull Sen. Darline Graham across the finish line in the runoff for the Republican Senate nomination in South Carolina, as she defeated Rep. Ralph Norman 52 to 48 percent. And the candidate Trump endorsed in the GOP runoff for governor of Oklahoma, Mike Mazzei, edged out state Attorney General Gentner Drummond for that nomination by half a point.
The good news is that both were close calls. The Trump-backed candidates came close to losing. Neither race should have been so heavy a lift. In addition to having the help of Trump, Graham and Mazzei were backed by their Republican governors, and their campaigns and outside supporters far outspent those of their rivals. It’s also worth noting that the non-Trump-endorsed candidates weren’t anti-MAGA or anti-ICE or anti-anything much the Trump administration has done. Still, they are Republicans who were opposed by Trump. And they almost won.
Put last night’s results together with Trump’s continued erosion in national polls, and one can say that the president is weaker than he perhaps has ever been politically, not just in terms of support among the general public, but even in his own party. Make no mistake: He still dominates and controls it. But in a new Reuters-Ipsos poll, which has only 33 percent of Americans overall approving of Trump’s job performance against 65 percent disapproving, one can see slippage even among Republicans: 18 percent of Republicans disapprove of Trump’s job performance, and of the 82 percent who approve, only 35 percent strongly approve while 47 percent only somewhat approve.
So the public, including some Republicans, is moving away from Trump. His key policies, such as the Iran war and the tariffs, are clearly failing. His senior officials, from Pete Hegseth to Scott Bessent, are floundering. Meanwhile, Trump himself looks ever more unhinged and erratic. He is a flailing president presiding over a failing administration.
But he remains a very dangerous president—more dangerous than ever, I’d say. Desperate men do desperate things. And desperate groups of men do desperate things. So a desperate Trump is becoming more megalomaniacal than ever. And the Trump administration is becoming ever more radical in pursuing its authoritarian projects.
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Seeing that this is happening takes a little getting used to. After all, when “normal” politicians lose support, they correct course to try to repair the damage to their popularity. Even normal demagogues adjust their messages in light of their effectiveness.
But Trump is no longer a garden-variety demagogue, and his administration is less and less responsive to normal political constraints. Trump and his apparatchiks have almost given up on persuading people. They seem entirely focused on stoking the hatreds of their most rabid supporters, and on redoubling their attempts to exercise all the levers of power at their disposal—whether in the service of mass deportation and political retribution at home, or bullying allies and destroying the liberal order abroad.
And, of course, they seem very focused on staying in power—regardless of what the public wants or decides. Look at Trump’s personal behavior in recent months. Is this a man who will willingly give up the power and privileges, the pomp and circumstance of the presidency in 2029? Look at the men and women around him. Are they not going to do everything they can to prevent another administration from coming in and turning over the rocks of lawlessness and corruption? Do the grifters in high positions feel they can afford to lose power? Will the fanatics and authoritarians accept the proposition that their policies might be reversed? And will the elected officials of the Republican Party insist on free and fair elections or the peaceful transfer of power to the opposition?
And how confident can we be that the guardrails of democracy hold? So many of them—within the executive branch, in Congress, in the Republican Party, even in the society at large—have been weakened or removed by the Trumpists. And that effort continues apace. We no longer live in the political world of 1974—or for that matter, 2020. The guardrails won’t function automatically. The Trumpists will need to be stopped—they will need to be resisted and defeated—by the American people.
I don’t think it’s overly dramatic to say that the next two years could well be as decisive for the fate of the American republic as any since 1945. And as we gather our breath here in late August to prepare for the task before us, I keep thinking back to a passage that I’ve quoted before but that I’ll take the liberty of quoting again, something James Carville wrote for The Bulwark six years ago:
But as I sit here, I can say with certainty that in all my years, joining in this crusade to take America back from the brink of destruction is the greatest thing I have ever been a part of in my life.
This crusade is something noble.
We can’t be sure of how the fight will go. We can be sure the path ahead won’t be smooth or easy. We can’t be sure of victory. But we can be sure it’s a good fight.
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