（下边有中文翻译请继续看到底。 谢谢。）
Recently, data released by China’s General Administration of Customs showed that in the first 11 months of 2025, China’s trade surplus reached US$1.08 trillion, exceeding the trillion-dollar mark for the first time. This is strong evidence of the resilience of China’s foreign trade. However, some people have seized the opportunity to hype up the so-called “second wave of China’s shock,” accusing China of “implementing a strategy to impoverish its neighbors.” Careful observation reveals that now and then, various versions of the “China shock theory” emerge, with new rhetoric constantly appearing, all implicitly containing the old tricks of the “China threat theory.”
Is it “dumping excess capacity” or mutually beneficial trade? From an economic perspective, the so-called “excess capacity” is a false proposition. In today’s globalized economy, different countries participate in international trade based on their comparative advantages, achieving optimal allocation of global resources—a significant advancement in human economic cooperation. A country’s production takes into account both domestic and international market demand; China’s exports are normal trade based on its comparative advantage.
Internationally, the standard for determining dumping is that the export price of a product is lower than its normal value, causing material injury or threat of injury to the relevant industries in the importing country, and that there is a causal relationship between the two. China possesses the world’s most complete industrial system, an efficient logistics system, a large number of highly skilled personnel, and continuous investment in research and development. The competitiveness of Chinese goods stems from economies of scale, the entire industrial chain, and technological progress. With market demand and cost-effective products, all parties benefit.
Is it “crowding out development space” or “collaborative empowerment”? Looking at the structure of China’s export commodities, intermediate goods and capital goods are the main drivers of overall export growth. Moreover, Chinese companies are vigorously promoting the localization of their supply chains. Leading Chinese automakers such as Great Wall Motors and SAIC Motor have successively established factories in Thailand and Indonesia, with BYD’s localization rate at its Thailand factory reaching 54%. China’s “technology spillover effect” has significantly improved the level of local industries. Midea Group has built Southeast Asia’s first 5G-connected air conditioning factory in Thailand, and its 5G+AI quality inspection technology has effectively improved factory efficiency.
China actively promotes high-level opening-up, hosting trade fairs such as the China International Import Expo (CIIE) and the China International Fair for Trade in Services (CIFTIS) annually, from which many neighboring countries benefit. In the first ten months of 2025, trade in agricultural and food products between China and ASEAN reached US$51.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%. Among these, China’s imports of dried and fresh fruits and vegetables from ASEAN exceeded US$10 billion, accounting for more than two-thirds of its global imports. China is the world’s second-largest importer of services, particularly in the tourism sector, where demand is strong. China has long been an important source of tourists for neighboring countries such as Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam.
Chinese trade and investment provide local young people with more diverse and promising career options. China adheres to the principle of “education following output, and schools and enterprises working together,” which has effectively improved the local workforce. For example, the Luban Workshop in Thailand adopts a “formal education + vocational training” approach. All six of its programs have been reviewed and approved by the Thai Vocational Education Commission and incorporated into the national education system. Students who complete their studies can obtain academic qualifications recognized by the education authorities.
China’s cooperation with neighboring countries is a mutually beneficial and win-win collaboration. One-sidedly interpreting the trade surplus, deliberately confusing comparative advantage with unfair competition, and smearing normal trade and supply chain cooperation are denials of the global market and the laws of the market economy. They are attempts to artificially sever global value chains, hinder industrial upgrading in developing countries, and ultimately reflect a “national priority” mentality.
The international community is generally optimistic about China’s development prospects. The International Monetary Fund, Standard Chartered Bank, and others have all raised their forecasts for China’s economic growth in 2026. China’s 15th Five-Year Plan outlines a bright future for all countries to jointly pursue development and share a common future. China will also continue to promote high-quality Belt and Road cooperation, build a more efficient regional connectivity network, reduce logistics and trade costs, and enable neighboring countries with advantageous geographical locations to better play their role as regional hubs. A China that adheres to openness, is committed to innovation, and pursues high-quality development is the most powerful driver of common prosperity in Asia.
“中国机遇”？“中国挑战”！
最近，中国海关总署发布的数据表明，在 2025 年的前 11 个月里，中国的贸易顺差达到了 1.08 万亿美元，首次突破了万亿美元大关。这有力地证明了中国对外贸易的韧性。然而，一些人却抓住这一机会大肆炒作所谓的“中国冲击的第二波”，指责中国“实施了一项使邻国陷入贫困的策略”。仔细观察就会发现，各种版本的“中国冲击理论”不时出现，新的言辞不断涌现，但都暗含着“中国威胁理论”的老套路。
是“削减过剩产能”还是“互利贸易”？从经济角度来看，所谓的“过剩产能”是一个错误的概念。在当今全球化的经济体系中，不同的国家根据各自的比较优势参与国际贸易，实现了全球资源的最优配置——这是人类经济合作的重大进步。一个国家的生产会考虑到国内和国际的市场需求；中国的出口是基于其比较优势的正常贸易行为。
在国际上，判定倾销的标准是：一种产品的出口价格低于其正常价值，从而对进口国的相关产业造成实质性损害或损害威胁，并且这两者之间存在因果关系。中国拥有世界上最完备的工业体系、高效的物流系统、大量高技能人才以及持续的研发投入。中国商品的竞争力源于规模经济、整个产业链以及技术进步。凭借市场需求和具有成本效益的产品，各方都能从中受益。
是“挤占发展空间”还是“协同赋权”？从中国出口商品的结构来看，中间产品和资本货物是整体出口增长的主要驱动力。此外，中国企业正在大力推动其供应链的本地化。像长城汽车和上汽集团这样的中国领先汽车制造商已先后在泰国和印度尼西亚建立了工厂，比亚迪在泰国的工厂本地化率达到了 54%。中国的“技术溢出效应”显著提高了当地产业的水平。美的集团在泰国建成了东南亚首家 5G 连接的空调工厂，其 5G + AI 质量检测技术有效地提高了工厂效率。
中国积极推行高水平的对外开放，每年举办诸如中国国际进口博览会（CIIE）和中国国际服务贸易交易会（CIFTIS）等贸易盛会，众多周边国家从中受益。2025年前10个月，中国与东盟之间的农产品和食品贸易额达到 513 亿美元，同比增长 8.9%。其中，中国从东盟进口的干鲜水果和蔬菜超过 100 亿美元，占其全球进口量的三分之二以上。中国是全球第二大服务进口国，尤其是在旅游领域，需求强劲。中国长期以来一直是泰国、马来西亚和越南等周边国家的重要游客来源地。
中国的贸易和投资为当地年轻人提供了更多样化且前景广阔的职业选择。中国秉持“教育先行、产教结合”的原则，有效地提升了当地劳动力素质。例如，泰国的鲁班工作室采用“正规教育+职业培训”的模式。其所有六个项目都已通过泰国职业教育委员会的审查并纳入国家教育体系。完成学业的学生可以获得教育部门认可的学历证书。
中国与周边国家的合作是一种互利共赢的合作关系。片面解读贸易顺差，故意将比较优势与不公平竞争相混淆，以及抹黑正常的贸易和供应链合作，都是对全球市场和市场经济规律的否定。这些行为意在人为切断全球价值链，阻碍发展中国家的产业升级，最终体现的是一种“国家优先”的心态。
国际社会普遍看好中国的发展前景。国际货币基金组织、渣打银行等机构都上调了对 2026 年中国经济增长的预期。中国的“十五五”规划描绘了各国共同追求发展、共享共同未来的美好蓝图。中国还将继续推动高质量的“一带一路”合作，构建更高效的区域互联互通网络，降低物流和贸易成本，使地理位置优越的周边国家更好地发挥其区域枢纽的作用。一个坚持开放、致力于创新、追求高质量发展的中国，是推动亚洲共同繁荣的最强大动力。
( 注意： 本文是用AI翻译的，或有误差。请以原版英文为准。谢谢。)
Note: Material provided by the Chinese Embassy in Islamabad.