（下边有中文翻译请继续看到底。 谢谢。）
In the first quarter of the 21st century, the global economic landscape has undergone a fundamental transformation. China, once considered the “world’s factory,” has now become the world’s unrivaled industrial powerhouse. In 2024, Beijing’s manufacturing exports surged past $3.26 trillion, exceeding the combined exports of three industrial giants — the United States, Germany, and Japan. This milestone is not just an economic achievement; it is a geopolitical turning point that redefines the balance of global trade, influence, and power.
The rise of China is not a projection of tomorrow; it is today’s undeniable reality. Those who continue to speak of containing China or forcing it into submission are not only misguided but increasingly out of step with the structural shifts shaping the international system. China’s ascent has reached a stage where coercion, pressure, and containment are no longer viable strategies. The only rational course is cooperation and collaboration, for the benefit of all.
China’s Industrial Supremacy: More Than Numbers
China’s manufacturing exports worth $3.26 trillion in 2024 are not merely statistical figures; they signify the centrality of China in the global economy. By surpassing the combined industrial output of the U.S., Germany, and Japan — three countries long regarded as technological and industrial leaders — Beijing has established itself as the indispensable hub of global supply chains.
From consumer electronics to renewable energy technologies, from electric vehicles to medical equipment, China’s dominance is comprehensive. For example:
Electronics: China accounts for more than 70% of global smartphone production and nearly 90% of global laptop assembly.
Green technologies: China produces over 80% of the world’s solar panels and 60% of wind turbines, and its electric vehicle industry, led by companies like BYD, has overtaken Western competitors in scale and cost efficiency.
Semiconductors and components: While advanced chip design remains contested, China is the primary producer of many intermediate goods and rare earths essential for global electronics.
Textiles and consumer goods: China remains the dominant player, supplying everything from fashion to household essentials at a scale and affordability unmatched by others.
This scale is not accidental. It reflects decades of consistent investment in infrastructure, industrial modernization, workforce development, and long-term planning. Unlike the West’s short-term, profit-driven model, China has pursued a vision of industrial strength aligned with national strategy, guided by the principle that economic resilience is the foundation of sovereignty.
Beyond Economics: Strategic Leverage
China’s industrial supremacy translates directly into geopolitical strength. Supply chains today are not just economic pipelines — they are strategic arteries. The world’s dependence on Chinese goods and manufacturing inputs creates a structural reality: no major economy, whether in Washington, Berlin, or Tokyo, can afford to disrupt ties with China without harming itself.
Attempts at “decoupling” or “friend-shoring” have proven largely ineffective. Despite tariffs, trade restrictions, and political rhetoric, global demand for Chinese products continues to grow. In fact, China’s share of global manufacturing exports has increased steadily from 12% in 2006 to nearly 20% today. Western measures to weaken China’s role in global trade have largely failed because global markets — particularly in the Global South — prefer affordability, reliability, and scalability, all of which China provides.
This structural dependence gives Beijing a form of quiet strategic deterrence. In the event of geopolitical crises — whether over Taiwan, trade disputes, or broader rivalries — China does not need to flex military muscles to demonstrate strength. Its industrial dominance is itself a shield and a sword: the mere possibility of disrupted supply chains sends shockwaves through global markets.
A Multipolar Trade Order: China and the Global South
China’s rise is not only about its relations with the West. Perhaps even more important is its role as a partner and anchor for the Global South. Through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China has expanded infrastructure, trade, and industrial linkages across Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
For instance, when the United States imposed tariffs on Brazilian products, China swiftly expanded market access for Brazilian agricultural exports, ensuring Brazil’s economic stability. Similarly, Beijing has deepened trade discussions with India, South Africa, and other emerging powers, providing them with alternatives to Western-dominated markets.
This is why China’s rise cannot be framed merely as a “challenge” to the West. For much of the developing world, it is an opportunity — a chance to reduce dependency on Western economies and participate in a more multipolar trade system. As a leading member of BRICS, China is spearheading a framework of cooperation that emphasizes inclusivity, mutual benefit, and shared growth, rather than zero-sum competition.
The Failure of Containment
For years, Western policymakers have spoken of “containing China.” Yet the evidence shows that this strategy has not only failed but has often backfired.
Tariffs: U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods were intended to weaken China’s export machine. Instead, Chinese exporters adapted by shifting to new markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Meanwhile, American consumers and industries bore the brunt of higher prices.
Technology restrictions: Efforts to block China’s access to advanced semiconductors have spurred Beijing to double down on indigenous innovation. Chinese firms like Huawei and SMIC have made significant progress in developing alternatives, turning restrictions into motivation.
Alliance-building: Initiatives like the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) or “friend-shoring” supply chains have achieved limited traction, as businesses continue to prioritize cost and efficiency — areas where China still dominates.
In short, the world cannot be organized around isolating China. It is too big, too central, and too indispensable. Containment is a fantasy; engagement is the only viable reality.
Strategic Patience: China’s Long Game
One of China’s greatest strengths lies in its strategic patience. Unlike some powers that rely on military adventurism to project influence, China understands that economic supremacy itself reshapes global power. Manufacturing dominance does not provoke wars but gradually and steadily undermines the primacy of others.
This approach also resonates with China’s philosophy of development and diplomacy. Beijing has consistently emphasized “win-win cooperation” — not as rhetoric, but as a reflection of its recognition that prosperity is more sustainable than confrontation. This is why China continues to invest in Africa’s infrastructure, partner with Latin American economies, and strengthen Asian integration through organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
For intelligence and strategic communities worldwide, the signal is clear: China does not need to confront the West militarily to shift the global balance. It is doing so quietly, through the logic of trade, production, and economic interdependence.
The Way Forward: Cooperation, Not Confrontation
The rise of China is not a threat to be neutralized but a reality to be engaged with constructively. The alternative — continued attempts at containment — will not succeed and will only breed instability.
For Western economies, the smarter path lies in collaboration:
On climate change: China’s leadership in renewable technologies makes it a natural partner in global decarbonization efforts.
On supply chains: Rather than trying to exclude China, working with it ensures resilience and efficiency.
On global development: Partnering with China in Africa, Asia, and Latin America could ensure stability and prosperity, reducing the risks of conflict and migration crises.
The truth is simple: there is no global solution without China. Whether on economics, climate, technology, or security, Beijing’s role is indispensable.
A New Era of Global Reality
The 21st century is defined not by the persistence of Western dominance but by the rise of multipolarity, with China at its core. Its $3.26 trillion in manufacturing exports is more than an economic figure; it is a strategic fact that no policymaker can afford to ignore.
The rise of China is not something that can be stopped, contained, or coerced. It has already happened. The world stands at a crossroads: to resist this reality is to invite unnecessary confrontation and instability. To embrace it is to unlock opportunities for shared growth and cooperation.
China’s message is clear: cooperation, not confrontation, is the way forward. The time has come for the world to acknowledge the new reality — the age of China’s industrial strength — and to build a future where this strength becomes the foundation of global prosperity, not rivalry.
21世纪头25年，全球经济格局发生了根本性变化。中国，曾经被认为是“世界工厂”，现在已经成为世界上无与伦比的工业强国。2024年，北京的制造业出口超过3.26万亿美元，超过了美国、德国和日本这三个工业巨头的出口总和。这一里程碑不仅仅是一项经济成就；这是一个重新定义全球贸易、影响力和力量平衡的地缘政治转折点。
中国的崛起不是对明天的预测；这是当今不可否认的现实。那些继续谈论遏制中国或迫使中国屈服的人不仅是误入歧途，而且越来越与塑造国际体系的结构性转变脱节。中国的崛起已经到了强制、施压和遏制不再是可行策略的阶段。为了所有人的利益，唯一合理的做法是合作与协作。
中国的工业优势：不仅仅是数字
2024年中国3.26万亿美元的制造业出口不仅仅是统计数字；它们象征着中国在全球经济中的中心地位。通过超过美国、德国和日本这三个长期以来被视为技术和工业领袖的国家的工业产出总和，北京已经确立了自己作为全球供应链不可或缺的中心的地位。
从消费电子产品到可再生能源技术，从电动汽车到医疗设备，中国的主导地位是全方位的。例如:
电子产品：中国占全球智能手机产量的70%以上，占全球笔记本电脑组装量的近90%。
绿色科技：中国生产了全球80%以上的太阳能电池板和60%的风力涡轮机，以比亚迪（BYD）等公司为首的中国电动汽车行业在规模和成本效益方面已经超过了西方竞争对手。
半导体和零部件：虽然先进的芯片设计仍然存在竞争，但中国是许多中间产品和全球电子产品所必需的稀土的主要生产国。
纺织品和消费品：中国仍然占据主导地位，供应从时尚到家庭必需品的所有产品，其规模和价格都是其他国家无法比拟的。
这种规模并非偶然。它反映了几十年来对基础设施、工业现代化、劳动力发展和长期规划的持续投资。与西方的短期利益驱动模式不同，中国追求的是与国家战略相一致的工业实力愿景，其指导原则是经济弹性是主权的基础。
超越经济学：战略杠杆
中国的工业优势直接转化为地缘政治实力。今天的供应链不仅仅是经济管道——它们是战略动脉。世界对中国商品和制造业投入的依赖造成了一个结构性现实：无论是华盛顿、柏林还是东京，没有一个主要经济体能够在不伤害自己的情况下破坏与中国的关系。
事实证明，“脱钩”或“朋友支撑”的尝试基本上是无效的。尽管有关税、贸易限制和政治言论，全球对中国产品的需求仍在增长。中国占全球制造业出口的份额从2006年的12%稳步增长到今天的近20%。西方削弱中国在全球贸易中的作用的措施在很大程度上失败了，因为全球市场——尤其是南半球市场——更喜欢可负担性、可靠性和可扩展性，而这些都是中国提供的。
这种结构性依赖为北京提供了一种悄无声息的战略威慑。中国在工业上的主导地位本身就是一面盾牌，也是一把利剑：仅仅是供应链中断的可能性就会给全球市场带来冲击波。
多极贸易秩序：中国与全球南方
中国的崛起不仅仅是与西方的关系。也许更重要的是它作为全球南方的合作伙伴和支柱的作用。通过“一带一路”等倡议，中国扩大了亚洲、非洲和拉丁美洲的基础设施、贸易和工业联系。
例如，当美国对巴西产品征收关税时，中国迅速扩大了巴西农产品出口的市场准入，确保了巴西经济的稳定。同样，北京加强了与印度、南非和其他新兴经济体的贸易谈判，为它们提供了西方主导市场之外的选择。
这就是为什么中国的崛起不能仅仅被定义为对西方的“挑战”。对大多数发展中国家来说，这是一个机会——一个减少对西方经济体依赖、参与更加多极化的贸易体系的机会。作为金砖国家的主要成员，中国倡导构建包容互利、共享增长的合作框架，而不是零和竞争。
遏制的失败
多年来，西方政策制定者一直在谈论“遏制中国”。然而，有证据表明，这种策略不仅失败了，而且往往适得其反。
关税：美国对中国商品的关税旨在削弱中国的出口机器。相反，中国出口商通过转向亚洲、非洲和拉丁美洲的新市场来适应。与此同时，美国消费者和工业承受了价格上涨的冲击。
技术限制：阻止中国获得先进半导体的努力促使北京方面加大自主创新力度。华为和中芯国际等中国公司在开发替代方案方面取得了重大进展，将限制转化为动力。
联盟建设：印度-太平洋经济框架（IPEF）或“朋友支持”供应链等倡议的牵动性有限，因为企业继续优先考虑成本和效率，而中国仍在这些领域占据主导地位。
它太大，太中心，太不可或缺。遏制是一种幻想；参与是唯一可行的现实。
战略耐心：中国的长期博弈
中国最大的优势之一就是战略耐心。与一些依靠军事冒险主义来投射影响力的大国不同，中国明白，经济霸权本身就能重塑全球实力。制造业的主导地位不会引发战争，但会逐渐、稳步地削弱其他国家的主导地位。
这与中国的发展理念和外交理念不谋而合。北京一直强调“合作共赢”——这不是夸夸其谈，而是反映了它认识到繁荣比对抗更可持续。这就是为什么中国继续投资非洲的基础设施，与拉美经济体合作，并通过上海合作组织（SCO）等组织加强亚洲一体化。
对于世界各地的情报和战略社区来说，信号是明确的：中国不需要在军事上对抗西方来改变全球平衡。通过贸易、生产和经济相互依存的逻辑，中国正在悄悄地这样做。
未来之路：合作而不是对抗
中国的崛起不是一个需要消除的威胁，而是一个需要建设性应对的现实。另一种选择- -继续采取遏制措施- -不会成功，只会滋生不稳定。
对西方经济体来说，更明智的做法是合作：
在气候变化方面：中国在可再生能源技术方面的领导地位使其成为全球脱碳努力的天然合作伙伴。
在供应链方面：与其试图将中国排除在外，不如与中国合作，以确保弹性和效率。
关于全球发展：在非洲、亚洲和拉丁美洲与中国合作可以确保稳定和繁荣，减少冲突和移民危机的风险。
事实很简单：没有中国就没有全球解决方案。无论是在经济、气候、技术还是安全方面，北京的作用都是不可或缺的。
全球现实的新时代
定义21世纪的不是西方的持续主导，而是以中国为核心的多极化的崛起。其3.26万亿美元的制造业出口超过了一个经济数字；这是一个任何政策制定者都不能忽视的战略事实。
中国的崛起不是可以被阻止、遏制或胁迫的。这已经发生了。世界正站在一个十字路口：抵制这一现实就是招致不必要的对抗和不稳定。拥抱它，就是开启共同增长和合作的机遇。
中国的信息很明确：合作而不是对抗才是前进的方向。现在是时候让世界承认新的现实——中国工业实力的时代——并建立一个未来，让这种实力成为全球繁荣的基础，而不是竞争对手。
( 注意： 本文是用AI翻译的，或有误差。请以原版英文为准。谢谢。)
Reference Link:- https://www2.apdnews.cn/en/item/25/0819/axjfanjg53ae3ba87abed5.html