The Indo-U.S. relationship, once hailed as a strategic alliance rooted in shared democratic values and mutual interests, is now showing unmistakable signs of stress. Recent remarks by President Donald J. Trump criticizing India’s trade policies as “non-cooperative” are not isolated sentiments but part of a broader trend that points to deepening divergences and eroding trust between Washington and New Delhi. The apparent cooling of relations is not just a matter of diplomacy—it holds significant implications for the evolving geopolitical dynamics in South Asia and beyond.
Trade Tensions and Economic Frictions
President Trump’s scathing assessment of India’s trade regime as protectionist reflects long-standing American frustration. Despite several rounds of bilateral trade talks over the years, India has maintained high tariffs on a range of American goods—from motorcycles and automobiles to agricultural products and medical devices. According to the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), India was among the top five countries with the highest average applied tariff rate in 2022, standing at around 17%. This has been a source of contention, especially when juxtaposed with U.S. expectations of “reciprocal access.”
In 2019, the Trump administration revoked India’s preferential trade status under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), citing failure to provide equitable market access to American businesses. The same protectionist tendencies are at the core of President Trump’s renewed critique, warning that India’s economic policies continue to hinder fair trade.
Furthermore, India’s ambitious “Make in India” initiative, while aimed at boosting domestic manufacturing, often discriminates against foreign firms. For example, Apple faced regulatory and policy obstacles that impeded its shift of manufacturing to India—a move that Trump discouraged in favor of bringing production back to the U.S. The American tech industry has also seen stricter visa rules and export control restrictions under scrutiny, especially concerning Indian talent inflows through H-1B and L-1 visas.
Immigration and Deportations: A Diplomatic Embarrassment
One of the lesser-discussed but highly symbolic irritants has been the large-scale deportation of undocumented Indian immigrants. During Trump’s first term, thousands of Indians were deported—many of them in military planes. Indian media and civil society viewed this as an affront to national dignity, and despite official silence, resentment simmered in New Delhi. The Trump administration’s skepticism about Indian workers in Silicon Valley further fueled the perception that the U.S. was no longer as welcoming to Indian professionals as it once was.
Political Betrayal and Strategic Distrust
President Trump has not forgotten the political pivot executed by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the 2020 U.S. presidential elections. While Modi appeared to be closely aligned with Trump during his first term—hosting events like “Howdy Modi” in Houston—his apparent support for Joe Biden in the subsequent election has been seen as a diplomatic betrayal. This shift may have contributed to Trump’s cooling attitude toward India, further exacerbating existing strains.
More recently, the divergence came into sharp relief during the brief but consequential four-day war between India and Pakistan in May 2025. India attempted to place blame squarely on Pakistan for the terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, and sought U.S. endorsement for aggressive military action. However, the Trump administration, reflecting lessons from previous regional conflicts, called for an impartial investigation and refused to accept India’s narrative without evidence.
When Indian forces began to falter in the battlefield, Modi made an urgent call to President Trump, requesting American intervention to broker a ceasefire. While Trump facilitated a truce, the episode revealed critical weaknesses in India’s military capabilities and strategic miscalculations—dents that have shattered the long-held illusion in Washington of India as a reliable counterbalance to China.
Strategic Partnership in Question: From Clinton to Collapse?
For more than two decades, successive U.S. administrations—from President Clinton to President Biden—have viewed India as a pivotal partner in the Indo-Pacific strategy. The nuclear deal of 2005, defense logistics agreements, intelligence-sharing pacts, and a host of joint military exercises signified a robust and growing partnership. India’s elevation to “Major Defense Partner” status was supposed to cement long-term collaboration.
However, the May conflict exposed India’s limits and made it increasingly difficult for the U.S. to envision India as a credible security partner against China. The assumption that India could “contain China” now appears misguided. Trump’s belief, as sources suggest, is that “if India can’t handle Pakistan, how can it counter China?”—a sentiment that reflects growing skepticism in American defense circles.
Energy Ties with Russia and Iran: Ignoring U.S. Sanctions
India’s continued engagement with sanctioned regimes, particularly Iran and Russia, has been another point of friction. Despite U.S. sanctions and diplomatic warnings, India remains one of the largest importers of Russian crude oil—benefiting from deep discounts in the wake of Western sanctions on Moscow. Similarly, New Delhi continues limited but symbolic trade with Iran, especially in energy and connectivity projects like Chabahar Port.
These defiant moves challenge American expectations of alignment and show India’s preference for strategic autonomy over alliance loyalty. Trump’s public and private criticisms of India’s double-dealings have further alienated the two capitals. The fact that India is a vocal participant in anti-Western coalitions like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is also seen as contradictory to its supposed Western tilt.
India’s Growing Authoritarianism and Human Rights Concerns
Human rights issues are becoming another wedge in U.S.-India relations. The Modi government’s record on religious freedom, press freedom, and minority rights has attracted increasing global criticism. The Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), revocation of Kashmir’s special status, attacks on journalists, and discriminatory policies against Muslims and Dalits are viewed with unease in Washington, especially among Democrats and human rights advocates.
Although Trump is not known for prioritizing human rights in foreign policy, the bipartisan discomfort in the U.S. Congress with India’s growing authoritarianism is feeding into the broader deterioration of trust.
Deterioration in Motion: Implications for South Asia and Beyond
The visible fraying of U.S.-India ties will have profound consequences for regional dynamics in South Asia. First and foremost, it provides strategic breathing room for Pakistan, which has long been marginalized in American foreign policy due to Washington’s tilt toward India. The U.S. acknowledgment of Pakistan’s position during the Pahalgam crisis—and its refusal to endorse India’s narrative—signals a potential recalibration of American South Asia policy.
Moreover, China stands to benefit significantly. The weakening of the U.S.-India axis removes a key pillar from the American Indo-Pacific strategy. It allows China to consolidate influence in Asia, particularly through BRICS, SCO, and Belt and Road Initiative projects, which India has resisted or joined half-heartedly.
Additionally, the deterioration of trust between India and the U.S. will affect defense sales, intelligence sharing, and strategic coordination. This may push India further into the arms of Russia and perhaps even toward cautious rapprochement with China—a scenario that could upend traditional alliances and calculations.
Strategic Illusions Shattered
The Indo-U.S. relationship, once touted as the defining partnership of the 21st century, now appears riddled with contradictions, disappointments, and diverging interests. The Trump administration’s disillusionment with India is rooted in multiple realities: protectionist trade practices, unreliable strategic behavior, defiance on sanctions, and military underperformance. What remains is a relationship under serious strain, perhaps even at a breaking point.
For Pakistan and China, the unraveling of this alliance offers opportunities—to recalibrate their roles in the regional architecture and challenge American miscalculations. For the region as a whole, it is a time of realignment, where old certainties are vanishing, and new strategic equations are emerging.
In this emerging world order, the U.S. may find that India’s façade as a dependable ally was just that—a façade, polished by optics but hollow in substance. As President Trump reevaluates alliances, the myth of India as the West’s chosen counter to China may finally be exposed for what it always was: a geopolitical illusion.
Indo-U.S。两国关系曾被誉为基于共同民主价值观和共同利益的战略联盟，如今却显示出明显的紧张迹象。唐纳德·j·特朗普总统最近批评印度的贸易政策“不合作”的言论并不是孤立的情绪，而是一个更广泛趋势的一部分，表明华盛顿和新德里之间的分歧正在加深，信任正在受到侵蚀。两国关系的明显降温不仅仅是一个外交问题，它对南亚及其他地区不断演变的地缘政治动态具有重要意义。
贸易紧张和经济摩擦
特朗普总统严厉评价印度的贸易制度是保护主义，这反映了美国长期以来的挫败感。尽管多年来进行了几轮双边贸易谈判，但印度一直对一系列美国商品保持高关税——从摩托车和汽车到农产品和医疗设备。根据美国贸易代表办公室（USTR）的数据，印度是2022年平均适用关税最高的前五大国家之一，约为17%。这一直是争论的根源，特别是当与美国对“互惠准入”的期望并列时。
2019年，特朗普政府撤销了印度在普惠制下的优惠贸易地位，理由是未能向美国企业提供公平的市场准入。同样的保护主义倾向也是特朗普总统新一轮批评的核心，他警告说，印度的经济政策继续阻碍公平贸易。
此外，印度雄心勃勃的“印度制造”计划虽然旨在促进国内制造业，但往往歧视外国公司。例如，苹果公司面临的监管和政策障碍阻碍了其将制造业转移到印度——特朗普不鼓励将生产转移到美国——美国科技行业也面临着更严格的签证规定和出口管制限制，特别是关于通过H-1B和L-1签证流入的印度人才。
移民和驱逐：外交上的尴尬
一个较少讨论但极具象征意义的刺激因素是大规模驱逐无证印度移民。在特朗普的第一个任期内，成千上万的印度人被驱逐出境，其中许多人乘坐军用飞机。印度媒体和民间社会认为这是对国家尊严的侮辱，尽管官方保持沉默，但怨气在新德里酝酿。特朗普政府对硅谷的印度工人持怀疑态度，这进一步加剧了人们的看法，即美国不再像以前那样欢迎印度专业人士。
政治背叛和战略不信任
特朗普总统没有忘记印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪在2020年美国总统选举期间实施的政治转向。虽然莫迪在第一个任期内似乎与特朗普关系密切，比如在休斯顿举办“你好，莫迪”之类的活动，但他在随后的选举中对乔·拜登的明显支持被视为外交背叛。这种转变可能是特朗普对印度态度降温的原因之一，进一步加剧了现有的紧张局势。
最近，在2025年5月印度和巴基斯坦之间短暂但影响重大的四天战争期间，这种分歧突显出来。印度试图将克什米尔巴哈尔甘地区的恐怖袭击直接归咎于巴基斯坦，并寻求美国对积极军事行动的支持。然而，特朗普政府考虑到以往地区冲突的教训，要求进行公正调查，并拒绝接受印度在没有证据的情况下的叙述。
当印度军队开始在战场上摇摇欲坠时，莫迪紧急致电特朗普总统，要求美国进行干预，促成停火。虽然特朗普促成了休战，但这一事件暴露了印度军事能力和战略误判的关键弱点——这些弱点打破了华盛顿长期以来将印度视为中国可靠制衡力量的幻想。
战略伙伴关系受到质疑：从克林顿到崩溃？
二十多年来，从克林顿总统到拜登总统，历届美国政府都将印度视为印太战略的关键伙伴。2005年的核协议、国防后勤协议、情报共享协议以及一系列联合军事演习表明，两国的伙伴关系日益稳固和发展。印度被提升为“主要防务伙伴”的地位本应巩固长期合作。
然而，5月的冲突暴露了印度的局限性，使美国越来越难以将印度视为对抗中国的可靠安全伙伴。印度可以“遏制中国”的假设现在看来是错误的。消息人士称，特朗普的观点是，“如果印度连巴基斯坦都对付不了，怎么能对付中国？”——这一观点反映了美国国防界日益增长的怀疑。
与俄罗斯和伊朗的能源关系：无视美国的制裁
印度与受制裁政权（尤其是伊朗和俄罗斯）的持续接触是另一个摩擦点。尽管有美国的制裁和外交警告，印度仍然是俄罗斯原油的最大进口国之一，受益于西方对莫斯科的制裁后的大幅折扣。同样，新德里继续与伊朗进行有限但象征性的贸易，特别是在恰巴哈尔港等能源和互联互通项目上。
这些挑衅的举动挑战了美国对结盟的期望，表明印度更倾向于战略自主，而不是对联盟的忠诚。特朗普对印度两面派的公开和私下批评进一步疏远了两国首都。事实上，印度是金砖国家和上海合作组织等反西方联盟的直言不讳的参与者，这也被视为与其所谓的西方倾向相矛盾。
印度日益增长的威权主义和人权问题
人权问题正在成为美印关系的另一个楔子。莫迪政府在宗教自由、新闻自由和少数民族权利方面的记录招致了越来越多的全球批评。《公民身份修正法案》（civil Amendment Act， CAA）、撤销克什米尔特殊地位、攻击记者、歧视穆斯林和达利特人的政策，在华盛顿引起不安，尤其是在民主党和人权倡导者中。
虽然特朗普并不以在外交政策中优先考虑人权而闻名，但美国国会两党对印度日益增长的威权主义的不满正在加剧两国之间更广泛的信任恶化。
运动恶化：对南亚及其他地区的影响
美印关系明显的裂痕将对南亚地区的动态产生深远的影响。首先，它为巴基斯坦提供了战略喘息空间，由于华盛顿倾向于印度，巴基斯坦长期以来在美国外交政策中被边缘化。美国承认巴基斯坦在巴哈尔甘危机中的立场，并拒绝认可印度的说法，这标志着美国可能重新调整其南亚政策。
此外，中国将从中获益良多。美印轴心的削弱使美国印太战略失去了一个关键支柱。它允许中国巩固在亚洲的影响力，特别是通过金砖国家、上海合作组织和“一带一路”倡议项目，印度一直抵制或半心半意地加入这些项目。
此外，印度和美国之间信任的恶化将影响国防销售、情报共享和战略协调。这可能会把印度进一步推向俄罗斯的怀抱，甚至可能会谨慎地与中国恢复友好关系——这种情况可能会颠覆传统的联盟和计算。
战略幻想破灭
Indo-U.S。美中关系，曾经被吹捧为21世纪的决定性伙伴关系，现在似乎充满了矛盾、失望和利益分歧。特朗普政府对印度的幻灭源于多重现实：保护主义贸易行为、不可靠的战略行为、对制裁的蔑视以及军事表现不佳。剩下的是一种严重紧张的关系，甚至可能处于破裂点。
对巴基斯坦和中国来说，这个联盟的解体提供了重新调整它们在地区架构中的角色和挑战美国误判的机会。对于整个地区来说，这是一个重新调整的时代，旧的确定性正在消失，新的战略方程式正在出现。
在这个新兴的世界秩序中，美国可能会发现，印度作为一个可靠盟友的假象只不过是假象，表面光鲜，实质空洞。随着特朗普总统重新评估盟友关系，印度作为西方选择对抗中国的神话可能最终会暴露出来，因为它一直是一种地缘政治幻觉。
( 注意： 本文是用AI翻译的，或有误差。请以原版英文为准。谢谢。)
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