（下边有中文翻译请继续看到底。 谢谢。）
On July 3, 2025, a pivotal moment unfolded in the evolving geopolitics of South and Central Asia. The Russian Federation officially recognized the Taliban government of Afghanistan, becoming the first country in the world to do so. This diplomatic breakthrough not only marks a bold shift in Moscow’s foreign policy posture but also opens the door to a more stable and interconnected regional framework—one that prioritizes pragmatism over ideology, engagement over isolation, and cooperation over confrontation.
The recognition follows a series of calculated and visionary steps taken by Russia in recent years. In April 2025, Russia’s Supreme Court lifted the “terrorist” designation previously imposed on the Taliban. This legal milestone signaled a clear intention by Moscow to pursue normalization with Kabul. In July 2024, President Vladimir Putin described the Taliban as “allies in the fight against terrorism,” especially against the menace of ISIS-K (Islamic State Khorasan Province), which has targeted both Afghanistan and Russia with brutal attacks. The Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also emphasized the need for a “pragmatic, not ideologized policy” in dealing with the new reality in Afghanistan. Today, that pragmatic approach has matured into formal recognition—anchored in mutual interests and strategic foresight.
A Changed Geopolitical Landscape Post-2021
Since the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021, the region has undergone a significant transformation. The sudden vacuum left by NATO forces created uncertainty, but also opportunity. While some countries adopted a wait-and-see policy, others, like Russia, began quietly recalibrating their stance. The Taliban’s return to power was not just a domestic change—it was a geopolitical inflection point.
For Russia, the evolution of Afghanistan’s political scene comes with both challenges and potential. Moscow remembers the painful legacy of the Soviet-Afghan War in the 1980s, which contributed to the eventual dissolution of the USSR. However, under the current leadership, Russia has shown maturity and the ability to move beyond the past. What matters now is regional peace, economic cooperation, and the fight against common threats like terrorism and narcotics.
Russia’s Strategic Interests and Regional Clout
By recognizing the Taliban government, Russia is positioning itself as a central actor in shaping Afghanistan’s future—and by extension, the future of the broader region. This recognition is not a romantic gesture; it is a calculated diplomatic maneuver grounded in national and regional interests.
Firstly, Afghanistan’s geographical position makes it a potential hub for connectivity between Central Asia, South Asia, and the Middle East. Russia is already laying the groundwork for using Afghanistan as a transit route for energy resources heading to Southeast Asia. The normalization of ties enables investment, infrastructure development, and commercial linkages that are critical for regional economic revival.
Secondly, security remains a pressing concern. Afghanistan shares borders with several Central Asian republics—Russia’s traditional sphere of influence. An unstable Afghanistan threatens to export extremism and refugee flows. A stable and engaged Afghanistan, on the other hand, becomes a bulwark against radical ideologies and transnational terror groups like ISIS-K. Moscow sees in the Taliban not just a ruling power, but a potential partner in upholding regional security.
Afghanistan’s Realities: Recognition as a Path to Recovery
From the Afghan perspective, Russia’s recognition is a beacon of hope. Since 2021, the Taliban government has faced international isolation, crippling sanctions, and a devastated economy. Billions in Afghanistan’s central bank assets remain frozen in Western capitals. Without formal recognition, the Afghan government has been unable to access international financial systems or engage in diplomatic negotiations on equal footing.
Despite challenges, the Taliban have succeeded in restoring a degree of law and order across the country. Civil war has been averted, large-scale violence has declined, and basic governance has resumed. Admittedly, there is ample room for improvement, especially in the areas of human rights, education, and inclusivity. However, the process of state-building is inherently complex and gradual. Isolating the Taliban has not yielded results; engaging with them may.
Russia’s decision will likely embolden other countries to follow suit. Already, China has maintained close working relations with the Taliban authorities. If the immediate neighbors of Afghanistan—including China, Iran, Pakistan, and the Central Asian republics—recognize the Taliban government, it will mark a turning point. The next natural step could be the collective recognition from the 57-member Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), which would grant legitimacy and open pathways for humanitarian aid, technical assistance, and development financing.
Countering Western Geopolitical Designs
The West, particularly the United States, retains a keen interest in Afghanistan. Speculations abound regarding the future of strategic installations such as Bagram Air Base. The U.S. has longstanding objectives in the region: monitoring Iran, containing Russia and China, and managing influence over Central Asia. The possibility that the Taliban, under duress from economic collapse, might offer base access to the U.S. in exchange for recognition or sanctions relief cannot be ruled out.
Such a scenario would fundamentally alter the region’s balance of power and revive the era of proxy politics in Afghanistan. This is why it is imperative for regional players to act swiftly. Diplomatic recognition by Russia is a protective step—it strengthens Afghanistan’s sovereignty, offers it options, and minimizes the chance of it falling under unilateral Western pressure.
Russia’s Diplomatic Maturity and Forward Thinking
Moscow’s evolving approach to Afghanistan reflects a broader pattern in Russian foreign policy: proactive engagement, strategic autonomy, and multipolar diplomacy. From Syria to Africa, and now in South and Central Asia, Russia has demonstrated a willingness to challenge Western orthodoxy while advocating for local solutions to local problems.
Russia understands that peace in Afghanistan is not only an Afghan need—it is a prerequisite for the security of the Eurasian landmass. It is in Moscow’s interest to stabilize its southern periphery, foster regional trade, and prevent Western military re-encroachment. Afghanistan’s transformation into a neutral, peaceful, and economically viable state aligns perfectly with Russia’s strategic objectives.
A Call for Constructive Engagement
The path forward lies in dialogue, not diktats. With recognition now in place, Russia and Afghanistan can enhance cooperation in areas such as counter-terrorism, narcotics control, border security, education, and cultural exchange. Russia’s experience in governance, infrastructure development, and energy can greatly aid Afghanistan’s recovery.
Furthermore, diplomatic channels provide a mechanism to address concerns. Whether it is women’s rights, inclusive governance, or education, these matters can and should be raised through formal engagements. Recognition does not mean the endorsement of every policy—it means acknowledging reality and choosing engagement over alienation.
A Step Towards Regional Peace
Russia’s recognition of the Taliban government is more than a diplomatic formality—it is a signal to the world that the time for constructive regional solutions has arrived. Afghanistan must be given a chance to stand on its feet. It must be treated as a sovereign nation, not as a geopolitical pawn.
This bold move by Moscow may indeed inspire other countries to rethink their positions. If recognition becomes a trend, Afghanistan will have more opportunities to chart an independent and peaceful future. The vision is clear: a stable Afghanistan, cooperating with its neighbors, integrated into regional trade, and contributing to the prosperity of the wider region.
In a time of shifting alliances, ongoing conflicts such as the Iran-Israel war, and global uncertainty, one truth remains: regional peace begins with regional ownership. Russia’s leadership in recognizing the Taliban is a commendable first step. It is now up to others to follow—not just for the sake of Afghanistan, but for the promise of a peaceful and prosperous Eurasia.
2025年7月3日是南亚和中亚地缘政治演变的关键时刻。俄罗斯联邦正式承认阿富汗塔利班政府，成为世界上第一个这样做的国家。这一外交突破不仅标志着莫斯科外交政策姿态的大胆转变，也为一个更加稳定和相互联系的地区框架打开了大门——一个优先考虑实用主义而不是意识形态，优先考虑接触而不是孤立，优先考虑合作而不是对抗的框架。
在承认这一地位之前，俄罗斯近年来采取了一系列深思熟虑和富有远见的步骤。2025年4月，俄罗斯最高法院解除了此前对塔利班的“恐怖分子”认定。这一法律里程碑标志着莫斯科寻求与喀布尔实现正常化的明确意图。2024年7月，弗拉基米尔·普京总统将塔利班描述为“打击恐怖主义的盟友”，特别是对抗ISIS-K（伊斯兰国呼罗珊省）的威胁，该组织对阿富汗和俄罗斯都进行了残酷的袭击。俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫也强调，在处理阿富汗的新现实时，需要一种“务实而非意识形态化的政策”。今天，这种务实的做法已经成熟为正式承认，以共同利益和战略远见为基础。
2021年后地缘政治格局的变化
亚历山大克尼亚杰夫:
阿富汗和地区安全：未来的设想
自美国于2021年8月从阿富汗撤军以来，该地区发生了重大变化。北约部队突然留下的真空带来了不确定性，但也带来了机遇。虽然一些国家采取了观望政策，但俄罗斯等其他国家开始悄悄调整自己的立场。塔利班重掌政权不仅是国内的变化，也是地缘政治的拐点。
对俄罗斯来说，阿富汗政治局势的演变既带来了挑战，也带来了潜力。莫斯科还记得上世纪80年代苏阿战争留下的痛苦遗产，这场战争最终导致了苏联的解体。然而，在现任领导人的领导下，俄罗斯已经表现出成熟和超越过去的能力。当前重要的是地区和平与经济合作，以及打击恐怖主义和毒品等共同威胁。
俄罗斯的战略利益和地区影响力
通过承认塔利班政府，俄罗斯正在将自己定位为塑造阿富汗未来的核心角色，进而扩展到更广泛地区的未来。这种承认不是一种浪漫的姿态；这是一种基于国家和地区利益的精心策划的外交策略。
首先，阿富汗的地理位置使其成为连接中亚、南亚和中东的潜在枢纽。俄罗斯已经在为利用阿富汗作为向东南亚输送能源的中转站奠定基础。两国关系正常化有助于投资、基础设施发展和商业联系，这对区域经济复苏至关重要。
第二，安全问题依然紧迫。阿富汗与几个中亚共和国接壤——这是俄罗斯传统的势力范围。一个不稳定的阿富汗有可能输出极端主义和难民潮。另一方面，一个稳定和参与的阿富汗成为对抗激进意识形态和ISIS-K等跨国恐怖组织的堡垒。莫斯科认为塔利班不仅是一个统治力量，而且是维护地区安全的潜在合作伙伴。
阿富汗的现实：承认是一条复苏之路
从阿富汗的角度来看，俄罗斯的承认是希望的灯塔。自2021年以来，塔利班政府面临着国际孤立、严厉制裁和经济崩溃。阿富汗中央银行的数十亿资产仍被冻结在西方国家的首都。由于没有得到正式承认，阿富汗政府一直无法进入国际金融体系，也无法在平等的基础上参与外交谈判。
尽管面临挑战，塔利班还是成功地在全国范围内恢复了一定程度的法律和秩序。内战得以避免，大规模暴力事件减少，基本治理得以恢复。诚然，我们还有很大的改进空间，特别是在人权、教育和包容等领域。然而，国家建设的过程本质上是复杂和渐进的。孤立塔利班并没有产生效果；与他们接触可能会。
俄罗斯的决定可能会鼓励其他国家效仿。中国已经与塔利班当局保持着密切的工作关系。如果阿富汗的近邻——包括中国、伊朗、巴基斯坦和中亚共和国——承认塔利班政府，这将标志着一个转折点。下一步自然是得到伊斯兰合作组织（OIC） 57个成员国的集体承认，这将为人道主义援助、技术援助和发展融资提供合法性和开放途径。
对抗西方地缘政治图谋
西方国家，尤其是美国，对阿富汗保持着浓厚的兴趣。关于巴格拉姆空军基地等战略设施的未来，各种猜测层出不穷。美国在该地区有长期的目标：监视伊朗，遏制俄罗斯和中国，以及管理对中亚的影响力。不能排除塔利班在经济崩溃的胁迫下，向美国提供基地使用权，以换取承认或解除制裁的可能性。
这种情况将从根本上改变该地区的力量平衡，并使阿富汗重新进入代理政治时代。这就是为什么区域参与者必须迅速采取行动的原因。俄罗斯的外交承认是一种保护措施——它加强了阿富汗的主权，为其提供了选择，并将其屈服于西方单边压力的可能性降到最低。
俄罗斯外交的成熟与前瞻性思维
莫斯科在阿富汗问题上不断演变的做法反映了俄罗斯外交政策的一种更广泛的模式：积极参与、战略自治和多极外交。从叙利亚到非洲，再到现在的南亚和中亚，俄罗斯已经表现出了挑战西方正统观念的意愿，同时倡导用当地的办法解决当地的问题。
俄罗斯理解，阿富汗的和平不仅是阿富汗人的需要，而且是欧亚大陆安全的先决条件。稳定其南部周边地区、促进地区贸易、防止西方军事重新入侵符合莫斯科的利益。阿富汗转型为一个中立、和平、经济上可行的国家完全符合俄罗斯的战略目标。
呼吁进行建设性接触
前进的道路在于对话，而不是命令。有了双方的承认，俄罗斯和阿富汗可以加强在反恐、禁毒、边境安全、教育和文化交流等领域的合作。俄罗斯在治理、基础设施建设和能源方面的经验可以极大地帮助阿富汗的复苏。
此外，外交渠道提供了解决关切的机制。无论是妇女权利、包容性治理还是教育，这些问题都可以而且应该通过正式接触提出。承认并不意味着支持每一项政策——它意味着承认现实，选择接触而不是疏远。
迈向地区和平的一步
俄罗斯对塔利班政府的承认不仅仅是一种外交形式——它向世界发出了一个信号，即建设性地区解决方案的时机已经到来。必须给阿富汗一个站起来的机会。它必须被视为一个主权国家，而不是一个地缘政治棋子。
莫斯科的这一大胆举动可能确实会促使其他国家重新考虑自己的立场。如果承认成为一种趋势，阿富汗将有更多机会走向独立与和平的未来。愿景是明确的：一个稳定的阿富汗，与邻国合作，融入区域贸易，并为更广泛地区的繁荣作出贡献。
在一个联盟不断变化、伊以战争等冲突持续、全球不确定的时代，有一个事实是不变的：地区和平始于地区所有权。俄罗斯领导承认塔利班是值得称赞的第一步。现在轮到其他国家跟进了——不仅是为了阿富汗，也是为了欧亚大陆的和平与繁荣。
( 注意： 本文是用AI翻译的，或有误差。请以原版英文为准。谢谢。)