（下边有中文翻译请继续看到底。 谢谢。）
The political landscape of Europe has been shaken by President Donald Trump’s approach to the war in Ukraine. Unlike his predecessor, President Biden, who provided steadfast support to Kyiv in collaboration with European allies, Trump has made it clear that he wants to end the war quickly, with or without European consensus. His unilateral approach to negotiations, particularly his preference for a direct deal with President Zelensky, has left European leaders deeply concerned about the future of transatlantic unity and NATO’s credibility. With discussions set to take place in Saudi Arabia, the possibility of a deal being signed without European input is increasingly likely, raising urgent questions about Europe’s own capacity to support Ukraine and safeguard its security.
A Rift Between the U.S. and Europe?
Trump’s approach to Ukraine underscores the growing divergence between American and European strategic interests. While European nations, particularly France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, see the war as a fundamental challenge to European security, Trump views it as a geopolitical burden that the United States should no longer shoulder alone. His decision to bypass NATO allies and pursue a settlement through direct talks with Ukraine has strained relations with European leaders, who fear that such a deal might come at the expense of Ukrainian sovereignty.
France’s President Emmanuel Macron and Britain’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak have already attempted to engage with Trump before his meeting with Zelensky, reportedly urging him to maintain a united front with Europe. However, early indications suggest that Trump is unlikely to alter his course. His insistence on an expedited resolution could result in a deal that forces Ukraine to cede territory to Russia, a scenario that European leaders see as a dangerous precedent for international law and territorial sovereignty.
What Can Europe Do Without the U.S.?
With Trump pulling back U.S. military and financial support, Europe faces an urgent question: Can it sustain Ukraine’s resistance independently? The European Union, while wealthy and influential, lacks the military-industrial capabilities of the United States. Although individual European countries have provided billions of euros in aid and military equipment to Ukraine, their collective support has not been enough to match the level of assistance that Washington previously provided.
Several key factors will determine Europe’s ability to sustain Ukraine without U.S. backing:
Financial and Military Capabilities: While the EU has deep pockets, its defense industries are fragmented, and ramping up weapons production takes time. Countries like Germany and France have significant industrial capacity, but their military sectors are not structured for large-scale, rapid wartime production.
Political Will and Internal Divisions: The EU is not a monolithic entity. Eastern European countries like Poland and the Baltic states are more willing to take an aggressive stance against Russia, while nations like Hungary and Slovakia are hesitant. Economic disparities between EU members further complicate a united military effort.
NATO’s Role: With Trump’s reluctance to engage in NATO-led initiatives, European members of the alliance may have to establish new security frameworks. Some analysts suggest the creation of a European Defense Union, an idea that has gained traction in Germany and France. However, building a self-sufficient European military force could take decades.
Alternative Alliances: Europe may seek closer security partnerships with countries like Canada, Japan, and Australia to compensate for U.S. disengagement. However, none of these nations have the military scale of the United States.
How Long Until Europe Can Defend Itself?
For decades, Europe has relied on American military power as the backbone of NATO. If Trump withdraws support, Europe will have to accelerate efforts to develop a fully independent defense force. This process will not be immediate:
Short-Term (1–3 years): Europe can increase its financial and military aid to Ukraine, but without U.S. support, Kyiv’s ability to sustain its defense will be significantly weakened.
Medium-Term (3–10 years): The EU can expand defense production, invest in new military technology, and enhance cooperation between member states. However, creating an integrated European military force will be a challenge due to bureaucratic and political obstacles.
Long-Term (10+ years): A self-sufficient European defense structure could emerge, but only if there is sustained political will and strategic planning.
Will Trump Change His Approach?
The possibility of Trump reversing course is uncertain. While he has a history of making abrupt policy shifts, his skepticism toward NATO and reluctance to fund European security suggest that he is unlikely to return to traditional transatlantic cooperation. However, should Ukraine’s situation deteriorate rapidly or if European leaders present a compelling counterproposal, Trump might reconsider his stance. Another key factor will be domestic U.S. politics—pressure from Congress or public opinion could influence his actions.
The Future of Transatlantic Relations
Trump’s Ukraine policy could redefine the U.S.-Europe relationship for years to come. If Europe successfully mobilizes its own defense efforts, it may emerge as a more autonomous player on the global stage. However, if European nations fail to provide adequate support to Ukraine, Russia could gain the upper hand, emboldening further aggression.
There are several possible scenarios ahead:
Europe Steps Up: If European nations unify and significantly increase military support, Ukraine could continue its resistance, potentially securing a more favorable outcome.
Ukraine Accepts a Deal Under Pressure: If Trump forces Zelensky into a peace settlement that involves territorial concessions, it could create a dangerous precedent and weaken European confidence in U.S. leadership.
NATO’s Credibility is Damaged: If Trump’s policies lead to a fractured NATO, it may push Europe to build its own security structures, though this will take considerable time.
Trump Reverses Course: While unlikely, Trump could face enough international and domestic pressure to modify his approach, particularly if the political costs of abandoning Ukraine become too high.
Summary
Europe is at a crossroads. Trump’s approach to Ukraine presents both a challenge and an opportunity: a challenge in the sense that Europe may have to act without its most powerful ally, and an opportunity to build greater strategic autonomy. While the immediate future looks uncertain, one thing is clear—Europe can no longer afford to depend entirely on American leadership. The coming years will determine whether the EU can emerge as a credible military power or if it will struggle to fill the void left by a retreating United States.
唐纳德·特朗普总统对乌克兰战争的态度动摇了欧洲的政治格局。与其前任拜登总统不同，特朗普明确表示，无论欧洲是否达成共识，他都希望迅速结束战争。拜登总统与欧洲盟友合作，向基辅提供了坚定的支持。他的单边谈判方式，特别是他倾向于与泽伦斯基总统直接达成协议，让欧洲领导人对跨大西洋团结的未来和北约的可信度深感担忧。由于谈判将在沙特阿拉伯举行，在没有欧洲参与的情况下签署协议的可能性越来越大，这引发了人们对欧洲自身支持乌克兰并维护其安全的能力的迫切质疑。
美国和欧洲之间的裂痕？
特朗普对乌克兰的态度凸显了美国和欧洲战略利益之间日益扩大的分歧。虽然欧洲国家，特别是法国、德国和英国，将这场战争视为对欧洲安全的根本挑战，但特朗普认为这是美国不应再独自承担的地缘政治负担。他绕过北约（NATO）盟友，通过与乌克兰直接谈判达成和解的决定，导致他与欧洲领导人的关系紧张，后者担心这样的协议可能会以牺牲乌克兰主权为代价。
据报道，在特朗普与泽伦斯基会晤之前，法国总统马克龙和英国首相苏纳克已经试图与特朗普接触，敦促他与欧洲保持统一战线。然而，早期迹象表明，特朗普不太可能改变他的路线。他坚持加快解决方案，可能会导致一项迫使乌克兰将领土割让给俄罗斯的协议，欧洲领导人认为，这种情况是国际法和领土主权的危险先例。
没有美国，欧洲能做什么？
随着特朗普撤回美国的军事和财政支持，欧洲面临着一个紧迫的问题：它能独立维持乌克兰的抵抗吗？欧盟虽然富有且有影响力，但缺乏美国的军事工业能力。尽管个别欧洲国家向乌克兰提供了数十亿欧元的援助和军事装备，但它们的集体支持还不足以与华盛顿此前提供的援助水平相提并论。
几个关键因素将决定欧洲在没有美国支持的情况下维持乌克兰的能力：
财政和军事能力：虽然欧盟财力雄厚，但其国防工业是分散的，增加武器生产需要时间。像德国和法国这样的国家拥有强大的工业能力，但它们的军事部门并不适合大规模、快速的战时生产。
政治意愿和内部分歧：欧盟不是一个单一的实体。波兰和波罗的海国家等东欧国家更愿意对俄罗斯采取咄咄逼人的立场，而匈牙利和斯洛伐克等国则犹豫不决。欧盟成员国之间的经济差异使联合军事行动更加复杂化。
北约的作用：由于特朗普不愿参与北约领导的倡议，北约的欧洲成员国可能不得不建立新的安全框架。一些分析人士建议建立一个欧洲防务联盟（European Defense Union），这个想法已经在德国和法国得到了支持。然而，建立一支自给自足的欧洲军队可能需要几十年的时间。
替代联盟：欧洲可能寻求与加拿大、日本和澳大利亚等国建立更紧密的安全伙伴关系，以弥补美国脱离接触的影响。然而，这些国家都没有美国的军事规模。
欧洲还能保卫自己多久？
几十年来，欧洲一直依赖美国的军事力量作为北约的支柱。如果特朗普撤回支持，欧洲必须加快努力发展一支完全独立的防务力量。这个过程不会立即完成：
短期（1-3年）：欧洲可以增加对乌克兰的财政和军事援助，但如果没有美国的支持，基辅维持其防御的能力将大大削弱。
中期（3-10年）：欧盟可以扩大国防生产，投资新的军事技术，加强成员国之间的合作。然而，由于官僚主义和政治障碍，建立一支一体化的欧洲军事力量将是一项挑战。
长期（10年以上）：一个自给自足的欧洲防御结构可能会出现，但只有在持续的政治意愿和战略规划下。
特朗普会改变策略吗？
特朗普改变路线的可能性是不确定的。虽然他有突然改变政策的历史，但他对北约的怀疑态度和不愿为欧洲安全提供资金的态度表明，他不太可能回到传统的跨大西洋合作。然而，如果乌克兰局势迅速恶化，或者欧洲领导人提出令人信服的反建议，特朗普可能会重新考虑他的立场。另一个关键因素将是美国国内政治——来自国会或公众舆论的压力可能会影响他的行动。
跨大西洋关系的未来
特朗普的乌克兰政策可能会在未来几年重新定义美欧关系。如果欧洲成功地动员了自己的防务力量，它可能会在全球舞台上成为一个更加自主的参与者。然而，如果欧洲国家不能向乌克兰提供足够的支持，俄罗斯可能会占上风，从而助长进一步的侵略。
未来有几种可能的情况：
欧洲加紧行动：如果欧洲国家团结起来，大幅增加军事支持，乌克兰可能会继续抵抗，从而可能获得更有利的结果。
乌克兰在压力下接受协议：如果特朗普迫使泽伦斯基达成涉及领土让步的和平协议，可能会开创一个危险的先例，削弱欧洲对美国领导地位的信心。
北约信誉受损：如果特朗普的政策导致北约分裂，它可能会推动欧洲建立自己的安全结构，尽管这需要相当长的时间。
特朗普改弦易辙：虽然不太可能，但特朗普可能会面临足够的国际和国内压力，迫使他改变自己的做法，尤其是如果放弃乌克兰的政治成本太高的话。
总结
欧洲正处于十字路口。特朗普对乌克兰的态度既是挑战，也是机遇：一方面，欧洲可能不得不在没有最强大盟友的情况下采取行动；另一方面，这是建立更大战略自主权的机会。虽然近期的未来看起来不确定，但有一件事是明确的，欧洲再也不能完全依赖美国的领导了。
( 注意： 本文是用AI翻译的，或有误差。请以原版英文为准。谢谢。)
Reference Link:- https://minutemirror.com.pk/trumps-ukraine-policy-and-the-future-of-transatlantic-relations-368647/