（下边有中文翻译请继续看到底。 谢谢。）
As the U.S. gears up for a new presidential term under Donald Trump, many are speculating on what this shift will mean for America’s relations with China. Trump’s earlier term from 2016 to 2020 and Joe Biden’s subsequent administration from 2020 to 2024 took markedly different approaches to China—one emphasizing tariffs and economic decoupling, the other balancing competition with cautious engagement. Now, as Trump prepares to assume office again, his approach to China seems poised for a blend of pragmatism and restraint, informed by his four years outside the White House.
Trump’s First Term vs. Biden’s Approach
In his first term, Trump pursued an aggressive trade war with China, imposing tariffs and seeking to diminish American reliance on Chinese manufacturing. His administration consistently confronted China over trade imbalances, intellectual property rights, and geopolitical issues. Biden, while maintaining competitive stances in technology and defense, tempered Trump’s sharp tone, working with allies to balance China’s influence rather than going it alone. He ganged up with his allies and harmed Chinese interests severely. He exercised all tactics of cold war ear and bullied China.
A Calmer, More Calculated Approach?
Out of office since 2021, Trump’s experience may have granted him a broader perspective on global dynamics and the limits of unilateral action. Trump’s campaign rhetoric suggests he might be rethinking his earlier, confrontational stance toward China. This does not imply he will ignore critical issues with China but rather that he may emphasize economic negotiations over outright economic warfare. His focus seems to be moving toward creating favorable trade conditions for the U.S., potentially using private sector connections, such as his alliance with Elon Musk, who maintains ties with Chinese business leaders. This cooperative approach might make for a more stable Sino-U.S. relationship, with room for business-friendly policies and less risk of escalation.
Domestic and Foreign Policy Priorities
On the domestic front, Trump has been vocal about his commitment to revitalizing the U.S. economy and tackling illegal immigration, issues that defined his first presidency and continue to resonate with his base. We can expect him to advocate for tax cuts, incentives for domestic manufacturing, and stricter immigration policies designed to protect American jobs and resources. His “America First” approach may also drive stricter visa regulations, prioritizing skilled workers who can bolster the economy.
Internationally, Trump’s focus seems twofold: ending or de-escalating ongoing conflicts and negotiating strategic partnerships. He has hinted at winding down U.S. support for Ukraine to encourage a diplomatic solution, signaling a potential pivot from Biden’s more robust backing of Ukraine. This could reduce the burden on American taxpayers while encouraging European allies to play a more prominent role.
Trump’s approach toward Iran will likely combine economic sanctions with diplomatic pressure. He may opt for containment over direct confrontation, avoiding the risks of military entanglement. In the Middle East, his support for Israel is unwavering, but he is likely to seek a ceasefire and push for stability. Strengthening alliances with oil-rich nations, like Saudi Arabia, could further his goal of securing energy interests while maintaining regional balance.
Pragmatic Engagement with China
Though Trump is expected to keep an eye on China’s expanding influence, his renewed pragmatism could temper his approach. He may focus on securing more equitable trade agreements, addressing trade deficits, and ensuring China respects intellectual property rights. Taiwan is likely to remain a sensitive topic, but Trump could negotiate with Taiwan for financial contributions in return for defense support, emphasizing economic benefits while avoiding unnecessary escalation with China.
An important new element in Trump’s approach could be his collaboration with high-profile business figures like Elon Musk, who has strong Chinese connections and business interests. Musk’s ties with Chinese officials could provide an indirect bridge for Trump, offering a channel for dialogue and economic negotiation, perhaps shifting Sino-U.S. relations into a period of cautious cooperation rather than open conflict.
On Taiwan issue, he might reduce arms sales to Taiwan or aske high price. Even, with NATO ha might demand for more funds against providing protection.
U.S.-Pakistan Relations: A Different Approach
Trump’s foreign policy might also take a softer stance toward Pakistan than Biden’s. While Biden’s administration pressured Pakistan on counterterrorism and human rights issues, Trump may adopt a less interventionist approach, seeing Pakistan as a strategic ally rather than an adversary. This shift could open up new channels for economic and diplomatic collaboration, benefiting both countries without coercive demands or confrontational tactics.
A New Tone, But Familiar Goals
Trump’s restrained victory speech after the election signals a more tempered, balanced perspective. His years outside of power appear to have cultivated a strategic patience that could define his approach to domestic and international affairs. Trump seems prepared to lead with a calm, seasoned hand, focusing on economic growth and diplomatic engagement rather than military solutions.
This newfound maturity does not imply a weak stance on core issues. Trump’s “America First” ideology remains intact, but his strategies could lean toward shrewder, more nuanced negotiations. Under his leadership, there’s hope for avoiding new conflicts while striving to resolve ongoing ones, creating a global environment where U.S. interests are preserved, yet peace is prioritized.
He will try to undo some of Biden’s decisions and may introduce his policies different from Biden’s, even opposite to Biden’s. His out look for the geopolitics are very different then Biden, and one should expect a visible change soon.
If Trump fulfills this vision, he could steer the U.S.-China relationship toward constructive competition rather than outright confrontation. His renewed focus on economic growth, cautious engagement, and peaceful resolutions could bring about an era where, despite inevitable tensions, cooperation and stability are possible between these two global superpowers.
随着美国为唐纳德·特朗普的新总统任期做准备，许多人都在猜测这一转变对美中关系意味着什么。特朗普2016年至2020年的早期任期和乔·拜登随后的2020年至2024年的政府对中国采取了明显不同的态度，一个强调关税和经济脱钩，另一个平衡竞争与谨慎接触。现在，随着特朗普准备再次就职，他对中国的态度似乎准备好了实用主义和克制的结合，这是他在白宫之外的四年经历所告诉他的。
特朗普的第一任期vs.拜登的策略
在他的第一个任期内，特朗普对中国发动了一场激烈的贸易战，征收关税，并试图减少美国对中国制造业的依赖。他的政府一直在贸易失衡、知识产权和地缘政治问题上与中国对抗。拜登在保持技术和国防竞争立场的同时，缓和了特朗普的尖锐语气，与盟友合作平衡中国的影响力，而不是单打独斗。他与盟友勾结，严重损害了中国的利益。他动用了冷战时期的所有战术，欺负中国。
一个更冷静、更深思熟虑的方法？
自2021年卸任以来，特朗普的经历可能使他对全球动态和单边行动的局限性有了更广泛的看法。特朗普的竞选言论表明，他可能会重新考虑之前对中国的对抗立场。这并不意味着他会忽视与中国的关键问题；相反，他可能会强调经济谈判，而不是直接的经济战。他的重点似乎转向为美国创造有利的贸易条件，可能会利用私营部门的关系，比如他与埃隆•马斯克（Elon Musk）的联盟，后者与中国商界领袖保持着联系。这种合作的方式可能会使中美关系更加稳定。两国关系良好，有利于企业的政策空间较大，升级风险较小。
国内和外交政策的优先事项
在国内方面，特朗普一直直言不讳地表示，他将致力于振兴美国经济和解决非法移民问题，这些问题是他第一任总统任期的主要内容，并继续在他的选民中引起共鸣。我们可以预期，他将倡导减税、鼓励国内制造业，以及旨在保护美国就业和资源的更严格的移民政策。他的“美国优先”方针也可能推动更严格的签证规定，优先考虑那些能促进经济发展的技术工人。
在国际上，特朗普的重点似乎是双重的：结束或缓和正在进行的冲突，以及谈判战略伙伴关系。他曾暗示，美国将逐步减少对乌克兰的支持，以鼓励通过外交途径解决问题，这表明拜登对乌克兰更为坚定的支持可能会改变。这可以减轻美国纳税人的负担，同时鼓励欧洲盟友发挥更重要的作用。
特朗普对伊朗的态度可能会将经济制裁与外交压力结合起来。他可能会选择遏制而不是直接对抗，以避免军事纠缠的风险。在中东，他对以色列的支持是坚定不移的，但他可能会寻求停火并推动稳定。加强与沙特阿拉伯等石油资源丰富的国家的联盟，可以进一步实现他的目标，即在维护地区平衡的同时确保能源利益。
与中国的务实接触
尽管特朗普预计会密切关注中国不断扩大的影响力，但他重新恢复的实用主义可能会缓和他的做法。他可能会专注于确保更公平的贸易协定，解决贸易逆差，并确保中国尊重知识产权。台湾可能仍然是一个敏感话题，但特朗普可以与台湾谈判，以换取国防支持的财政贡献，强调经济利益，同时避免与中国大陆不必要的升级。
马斯克与中国官员的关系可以为特朗普提供一个间接的桥梁，为对话和经济谈判提供一个渠道，也许会改变中美关系。两国关系进入谨慎合作而非公开冲突的时期。
在台湾问题上，他可能会减少对台军售，也可能会提出高价。即使加入北约，他也可能要求更多的资金来提供保护。
美巴关系：不同的途径
特朗普的外交政策也可能比拜登对巴基斯坦采取更温和的立场。拜登政府在反恐和人权问题上向巴基斯坦施压，而特朗普政府可能会采取不那么干涉主义的做法，将巴基斯坦视为战略盟友而不是对手。这种转变可能为经济和外交合作开辟新的渠道，使两国在没有强制要求或对抗策略的情况下受益。
新的语气，但熟悉的目标
特朗普在选举后发表的克制的胜选演讲表明，他的观点更加温和、平衡。他在权力之外的岁月似乎培养了一种战略耐心，这可能决定他处理国内和国际事务的方式。特朗普似乎准备以冷静、老练的方式领导，专注于经济增长和外交接触，而不是军事解决方案。
这种新发现的成熟并不意味着在核心问题上立场软弱。特朗普的“美国优先”意识形态仍然完好无损，但他的策略可能倾向于更精明、更细致的谈判。在他的领导下，有希望避免新的冲突，同时努力解决正在进行的冲突，创造一个维护美国利益，但优先考虑和平的全球环境。
他将试图撤销拜登的一些决定，并可能推出与拜登不同，甚至相反的政策。他对地缘政治的看法与拜登非常不同，人们应该期待很快出现明显的变化。
如果特朗普实现了这一愿景，他可以将美中关系引向建设性的竞争，而不是彻底的对抗。他对经济增长、谨慎接触和和平解决的重新关注可能会带来一个时代，在这个时代，尽管不可避免的紧张局势，这两个全球超级大国之间仍有可能实现合作与稳定。
( 注意： 本文是用AI翻译的，或有误差。请以原版英文为准。谢谢。)
Reference Link:- https://www2.apdnews.cn/en/item/24/1111/axjdgkaffb5f19dafad524.html