{"id":35833,"date":"2026-08-10T03:39:43","date_gmt":"2026-08-10T03:39:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gsrra.com\/?p=35833"},"modified":"2026-08-10T03:39:43","modified_gmt":"2026-08-10T03:39:43","slug":"what-happens-when-an-election-denier-runs-a-crucial-swing-state","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gsrra.com\/?p=35833","title":{"rendered":"What Happens When an Election Denier Runs a Crucial Swing State?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

We\u2019re down to the final few weeks of the 2026 primary season. But before we switch into general election mode, Wisconsin voters have an important choice to make in Tuesday\u2019s Democratic primary for governor. Not only will the outcome of the state\u2019s gubernatorial contest affect Wisconsinites, but it could also affect the 2028 presidential election and the balance of the U.S. Senate.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

THIS TUESDAY\u2019S GUBERNATORIAL PRIMARY in Wisconsin may seem like the latest chapter of an internecine fight among Democrats over the philosophical direction of the party. And it is that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But there\u2019s much more on the line as well: The fallout from the Wisconsin election could extend nationally, by making it possible for Trump-allied Republicans to screw with the presidential election results in ways they tried, but failed, to do in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the line is the Democratic Party of Wisconsin\u2019s decade-and-a-half-long effort to claw its way back to a unified state government, as well as the opportunity to add more safe Democratic House seats to the next congressional map. Beyond that, however, is another hugely consequential prize: the capacity to ensure that the state\u2019s 2028 presidential election results will be properly certified. Wisconsin\u2019s governor will play a critical role in that, much as the current outgoing governor\u2014Democrat Tony Evers\u2014did when Donald Trump contested the state in 2020. There are real fears in Democratic circles that Wisconsin Democratic voters aren\u2019t quite appreciating these stakes as they head to the polls this go-around.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe critical importance of defeating Tom Tiffany for the future of American democracy is hard to overstate,\u201d said Ben Wikler, the former state party chair, referring to the expected GOP nominee for governor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wikler\u2019s fears aren\u2019t imaginary. Tiffany, a House Republican who is cruising to the nomination, has a lengthy history of embracing Trump\u2019s election lies. He\u00a0voted to overturn<\/a>\u00a0the results of the 2020 election, peddled lies that \u201chundreds of thousands of illegal votes<\/a>\u201d were cast in Wisconsin, and\u00a0signed on to<\/a>\u00a0Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton\u2019s lawsuit seeking to bar Wisconsin and other swing states from voting in the Electoral College. More recently, he\u2019s suggested that those convicted in the January 6th riot could possibly be owed\u00a0restitution<\/a>,\u00a0and he\u2019s continued to back an\u00a0FBI probe<\/a>\u00a0into Wisconsin\u2019s 2020 election workers. He remains unwilling to\u00a0definitively state<\/a>\u00a0that Trump lost the 2020 race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt is very clear that Tom Tiffany has a real issue when it comes to democracy,\u201d <\/strong>said Devin Remiker, the current chair of the state Democrats. \u201cUnder Governor Tom Tiffany, I don\u2019t know if we would be able to count on him doing the right thing and ensuring that that certification was properly done if he didn\u2019t like the outcome.\u201d And it\u2019s not just the presidential election that may be at risk, Remiker notes: In Wisconsin the governor\u2019s signature is necessary to certify even U.S. Senate elections\u2014so it\u2019s conceivable that Tiffany might interfere with the results of the 2028 Senate election.\u00b9<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The potential for an electoral-count crisis in the 2028 presidential election looms over several critical states as candidates connected to Donald Trump\u2019s undying lie about the stolen 2020 election are running for governorships. Rep. Andy Biggs, who tried to overturn the 2020 results<\/a>, is the GOP nominee for governor in Arizona, another critical presidential state.\u00b2 And the Republican gubernatorial nominee in Pennsylvania, State Treasurer Stacy Garrity, has publicly called into question<\/a> the results of the 2020 election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But unlike in Wisconsin, where Evers decided not to run for a third term, Biggs and Garrity are both up against popular<\/a> Democratic incumbents<\/a>. And while national Democrats are fretting about election-denying GOP governors possibly having a hand in presidential election certification in a swing state, it\u2019s not clear to local Democrats if that prospect is factoring into voters\u2019 calculations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI don\u2019t know if people are fully grasping the stakes,\u201d said Joe Zepecki, a Milwaukee-based Democratic strategist. \u201cTiffany is not someone who just went along with the lies in 2020 to keep Trump\u2019s favor. He has continued to push these conspiracies through 2026.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

ALSO ON THE LINE in this fall\u2019s Wisconsin election: The possibility of another round of congressional map-drawing in early 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\u00a0nationwide clash<\/a>\u00a0over redrawing congressional districts over the last year saw red states make their maps redder and blue states make their maps bluer (with a handful of states\u2019 redrawn maps rejected by the courts). Wisconsin Democrats entered 2026 optimistic about their chances of flipping the state Assembly and state Senate as well as keeping the governorship, which would allow them to redraw maps ahead of 2028 that could net additional safe Democratic House seats. (Wisconsin\u2019s U.S. House delegation currently has six Republicans and two Democrats.) Losing the governor\u2019s chair would imperil that, even if the party were to flip the state houses. And if Republicans were to win a trifecta of their own\u2014controlling the governorship and both houses of the state legislature as they did from 2011 to 2018\u2014they could just as easily redraw congressional lines that wipe Democratic House seats off the map.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWisconsin might be the single state with the biggest possible swing in what happens with House maps based on what happens in the midterms,\u201d said Wikler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given those stakes, a panic has set in among some Democrats that the party appears to be on the verge of nominating Francesca Hong, a DSA candidate\u2014someone who has called for canceling Thanksgiving<\/a>, abolishing the Senate<\/a>, and eliminating police funding<\/a> entirely\u2014as its gubernatorial nominee.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hong\u2019s defenders argue that she\u2019s not the risk that her critics insist she is. They say she can marshal populist support to counter any losses she may suffer among the moderate suburban voters who might not find her socialist-tinted policies to their comfort or liking. They point to the swelling of support for Hong in the primary as evidence that she can succeed in the general election, should she get there\u2014as the polls strongly suggest<\/a> she will:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/td><\/a><\/td><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The last five relevant surveys of registered voters (the Marquette poll) and likely voters (the other four polls). (Via the <\/a>New York Times<\/a><\/em>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Hong\u2019s success is also owed, in part, to the screwups of the establishment and the moderate wing of the party. A few months ago, Democrats believed that a competitive primary field for governor was a good<\/em> thing and that the strongest candidate would ultimately emerge from it. The likely beneficiary, they believed, would be Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez\u2014especially after Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley ended his campaign and endorsed<\/a> her.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Rodriguez stunned Wisconsin Democrats when she announced she was suspending<\/a> her campaign after discovering that her campaign manager had mishandled the campaign\u2019s financial reports. Crowley jumped back in the race. And Evers quickly endorsed him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anti-Hong Dems debated whether to rally around Crowley or former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes\u2014a decision that was made for them when Barnes dropped out of the race amid reporting<\/a> by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel<\/em> into allegations that he leveraged his role in the party to have sexual encounters with young adult women. Republicans weren\u2019t just enjoying the schadenfreude as the moderate and establishment flanks of the party crashed out. They were actively trying to engineer an outcome to their liking. A super PAC tied to Republicans<\/a> has spent millions of dollars on ads boosting Hong\u2019s candidacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cFran has run a very good campaign. She was the most aggressive in spending early, and the fact that she is not a traditional Democrat allowed her to be a safe haven for people who are frustrated with the Democratic party,\u201d said Zepecki. \u201cEverything the establishment tried to do happened too late.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the final few days of the primary, Wisconsin Democrats have debated whether the race is baked and the only option is to get Hong all the help possible to prepare her for the general\u2014or if going all-out for Crowley in a Hail Mary attempt to keep Hong from securing the nomination is the better path. Some Democratic officials saw Abdul El-Sayed\u2019s closer-than-expected victory in the Michigan Senate primary<\/a> as evidence that Hong\u2019s support may be softer than polls suggest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Still, even Hong\u2019s critics privately acknowledged to me last week that, given her big lead in the polls, Crowley probably does not have enough time to turn around the race. Instead, the conversation among Wisconsin Dems has slowly turned into a brainstorming session about what can be done to take Hong from a candidate regarded by a good chunk of the state as unserious, and convincingly reintroduce her as a legitimate politician prepared for the gravity of the job. They insist that it\u2019s not an impossible task and that she could still win in a matchup against Tiffany, particularly given how blue this cycle is trending and how close Tiffany is to the increasingly unpopular president. Remiker told me that the state party, which has remained neutral in the primary, is already planning a statewide tour for the nominee and is prepared to lend staff to the nominee\u2019s campaign.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cFran may not have been the candidate or the nominee that people expected, but I don\u2019t think that takes away from the possibility of still winning in November,\u201d said Madison-based Democratic strategist Scott Spector, who managed Sen. Tammy Baldwin\u2019s successful 2018 and 2024 re-election campaigns. \u201cThere\u2019s so much on the line that you\u2019re not going to have folks who are going to sit on their hands and say \u2018We\u2019ll see what happens in four years.\u2019 People are going to do everything they can to take advantage of this historic opportunity in November.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The opportunity that Spector is referring to is the chance for Democrats to win a governing trifecta for the first time since 2010, when Wisconsin Republicans gained majorities in the U.S. House delegation, State Assembly, State Senate, and took control of the governorship with the election of Scott Walker.\u00b3 As Wisconsin Democrats see it, they\u2019ve been working ever since then to undo Walker\u2019s legacy\u2014from his gerrymandered congressional and legislative maps<\/a> to his efforts to gut the state\u2019s public employee unions<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhen Scott Walker and the GOP took control of Wisconsin in 2010, Wisconsin experienced a miniature version of the political crisis that the whole country is experiencing right now [with Donald Trump],\u201d Wikler told me. \u201cIt\u2019s taken sixteen years and thousands of people organizing in every corner of the state to unrig the state\u2019s legislative maps and reach this moment when a Democratic trifecta is possible.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It would be a cruel fate for Wikler and others to see all the hard work they put in to flip Wisconsin back to Democrats come up short right at the finish line. It would be particularly difficult for it to happen in a cycle when Democrats are expected to make major gains across the country. But that pain may be overshadowed by the damage that could come two years later, when a presidential contest comes down to a few key states\u2014especially if the outcome of that contest depends on whether Trump allies can interfere in the election in ways they tried and failed to do in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe 2026 [cycle] has had a huge circle around it,\u201d as Wikler put it\u2014a big, bright warning that the stakes are high, even if the voters haven\u2019t caught on yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reference Link: https:\/\/mail.yahoo.com\/n\/list\/folders=1&listFilter=ALL_INBOX\/messages\/AAGgGLE56AWnA0V1KMZhJYfnfmD<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We\u2019re down to the final few weeks of the 2026 primary season. But before we switch into general election mode, Wisconsin voters have an important choice to make in Tuesday\u2019s Democratic primary for governor. Not only will the outcome of the state\u2019s gubernatorial contest affect Wisconsinites, but it could also affect the 2028 presidential election […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":16992,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"aside","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[2],"tags":[512,29051,3834,33243,31790,33245,349,33244],"class_list":["post-35833","post","type-post","status-publish","format-aside","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-sample-category","tag-america-2","tag-democrats","tag-elections-2","tag-mid-term","tag-public-opinion-2","tag-republican","tag-us-2","tag-wisconsin","post_format-post-format-aside"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/gsrra.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35833","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/gsrra.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/gsrra.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gsrra.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gsrra.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=35833"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/gsrra.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35833\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":35834,"href":"https:\/\/gsrra.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35833\/revisions\/35834"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gsrra.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/16992"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/gsrra.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=35833"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gsrra.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=35833"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gsrra.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=35833"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}