India’s decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) 65 years after its signing has added another polemic to the turbulent relations between India and Pakistan. India\u2019s decision came a day after the Pahalgam terrorist incident in India-occupied Kashmir. India blamed the incident on Pakistan, which demanded evidence and called for an independent investigation. Two days after the incident, the Indian minister for water resources, C.R. Patil, threatened that \u201cnot a single drop\u201d of water would flow towards Pakistan. Ironically, while India cries foul, it is working actively to perpetuate proxy terrorism in Pakistan through the TTP and BLA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Narendra Modi government regards the IWT as a historical injustice to India. Speaking to the Indian parliament in July 2025, Prime Minister Modi stated that holding the IWT in abeyance has rectified a \u201cbig blunder\u201d committed by Jawaharlal Nehru. The argument is that the IWT gave Pakistan nearly 80 per cent of the Indus river system\u2019s flows. Modi argued that India derived its identity from the Indus, but that Nehru and the Congress had allowed the World Bank to decide on the sharing of its waters. India\u2019s leadership conveniently overlooks the fact that India receives 100pc of the waters of the three eastern rivers and is legally permitted to use 20pc of the water of the western rivers for irrigation, power generation and transport.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Indian thought circles are now weaving a narrative based on three elements: (i) IWT was an unequal bargain that must now be rectified; (ii) Pakistan\u2019s insistence on treaty procedures impeded India\u2019s development projects that could benefit Kashmiris; (iii) Indian projects on the western rivers would not use more than the treaty-permitted 3.6 MAF (this cannot be verified as India is withholding information and has made the Indus Water Commission dysfunctional); and (iv) IWT should be renegotiated to account for demographic and environmental changes that have occurred since 1960.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This narrative is designed to take the international community\u2019s attention away from India\u2019s violation of international law, as the IWT\u2019s unilateral suspension isn\u2019t allowed by the treaty. Besides, usurping the water rights of the lower riparian goes against the established norms of water sharing. Behind the fa\u00e7ade of this narrative, India has started work on multiple dams, mostly on the Chenab River, and inter-basin transfers such as the Chenab-Beas tunnel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nIndia can manipulate flows to hurt the sowing season in Pakistan.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
Pakistan\u2019s canal system works on the basis of predictable water flows. Given that India is building several dams and is not providing timely information, even a temporary reduction in flows during the sowing season can have a disastrous effect on Pakistan\u2019s agriculture. That is why Pakistan is so concerned about Indian attempts to build these dams, along with withholding information on water flows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So, what options does Pakistan have to ensure its water security? An obvious one is to increase its diplomatic outreach so that the world understands that not only do India\u2019s actions violate its legal obligations, they also threaten the lives and livelihoods of millions of Pakistanis dependent on the waters of the Indus basin. However, since the world order is in disarray and the prevailing global geopolitics is chaotic, India doesn\u2019t seem to care much for diplomatic pressure. Legally, Pakistan\u2019s case has been endorsed by the Hague-based Court of Arbitration, which has ruled that India\u2019s attempt to place the IWT in abeyance has no legal basis and that India must ensure the uninterrupted flow of the western rivers. How\u00ade\u00adver, India blata\u00adn\u00adtly rej\u00adected the awards. That bri\u00adngs into play the military option. Wars are a costly business, pa\u00ad\u00ad-r\u00adticularly bet\u00adween two nuclear-arm\u00ad\u00aded neighbo\u00adurs. India needs to know that it must not test Pa\u00ad-kistan\u2019s patience lest both countries end up in a disastrous situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Some experts say that India will not be able to steal more water because of the limitations of the hilly terrain, particularly in the case of the Indus. If it could have been stolen, it would have certainly been done so in the past 65 years. However, this view does not take into account regional geopolitics, which has driven India\u2019s decision to suspend the treaty. While it is true that geography will not permit India to stop Pakistan\u2019s share of water, it can manipulate flows to hurt the sowing season in the country. A dedicated Pakistan-India backchannel is necessary to resolve the deadlock before disaster strikes. In a package approach, India could restore the treaty while Pakistan accepts the negotiation of an addendum to the IWT on demographic and environmental changes. Pakistan should also work harder towards more efficient use of the water it receives and bolster its storage capacity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n