For those in the region, it means that having your bag packed, ready to flee by bus, car or even on foot to a safer place \u2013 maybe for a few days, perhaps indefinitely \u2013 has become a fact of life.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Emma Graham<\/strong><\/em>-Harrison<\/strong><\/em> spent over a decade reporting from Kabul, Beijing and Madrid before basing herself in Jerusalem last May as our chief Middle East correspondent. I spoke to her as she waited to board her flight to Zurich, where she\u2019s been nominated for an award for her reporting from Gaza<\/a>. We talked about what it\u2019s like for people living in a region that faces constant instability while the world watches on, and other times looks away. But first, the headlines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n As the week draws to a close, Donald Trump has insisted once again\u00a0that Iran<\/a>\u00a0is \u201cpretty close\u201d to signing a peace agreement with the US, which would see the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow maritime passage through which about 20% of the world\u2019s oil and liquefied natural gas passes, reopen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But many would be forgiven for thinking it doesn\u2019t\u00a0feel<\/em>\u00a0like peace is coming. This week saw Israel make its deepest incursion into Lebanon in more than 26 years, with Israeli strikes killing at least nine people, and\u00a0<\/strong>hundreds of thousands\u00a0<\/strong>forced\u00a0<\/strong>to flee their homes in the south of the country. The strikes complicated diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran. On Thursday, the Israeli defence minister, Israel Katz, said the military will continue its ground operations there, just\u00a0<\/strong>hours after Israel and Lebanon\u00a0agreed to implement a US-backed ceasefire<\/a>\u00a0to end hostilities. Later, the leader of Hezbollah rejected the ceasefire too, demanding a complete Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It\u2019s a territorial escalation for sure, says Emma, which has delighted far-right elements in Netanyahu\u2019s coalition government, who have called for the annexation of southern Lebanon<\/a>, as well as Gaza and the West Bank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But while Trump is scaling back, aware of the war\u2019s unpopularity domestically and the impact of rising inflation and oil prices, analysts inside Israel believe Netanyahu is now seeking to broaden the conflict for his own strategic ends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Does Israel desire a broader conflict?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThis war began looking incredibly impressive for the US and Israel,\u201d Emma tells me \u2013 but in her view, the totally predictable blocking of the Strait of Hormuz has stalled it, leaving little indication of what success might look like.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Emma says: \u201cMany Israelis believe the election will be a test of whether Netanyahu can convince voters that he has achieved security gains since 7 October 2023, [when Hamas killed 1,200 Israelis and injured many more] that outweigh the failings that left so many Israelis vulnerable to Hamas attacks on that day.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Since the start of the war in Iran, thousands of Israelis have been injured and 23 have been killed in missile strikes from Iran and Lebanon, figures up to April from Israel\u2019s ambulance service say.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Even at the start of the war, Emma wrote about how senior Israeli defence figures believed it was wishful thinking that Israel and the US could achieve regime change in Iran. With that ostensible goal never likely to be achieved,<\/strong> whether Iran held on to its enriched uranium stores would be the true measure of whether the war was a success or failure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cNow the war is in stalemate, and the thing that was most critical for Israel, the nuclear proliferation programme, doesn\u2019t seem to be on the table in negotiations. It looks very much like it\u2019s going to be a failure,\u201d says Emma.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But what could be on Netanyahu\u2019s mind are the upcoming elections in Israel\u2019s Knesset, which <\/strong>my First Edition colleague Michael Segalov explained in great detail<\/a> a few weeks ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIn that context, returning to war in Lebanon \u2013 and Gaza \u2013 is absolutely a political and electoral strategy,\u201d she adds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n An ongoing catastrophe in Gaza and global disinterest<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Despite a US-brokered \u201cceasefire\u201d coming into force last October, Emma explains that over 900 people have been killed in Gaza by continued Israeli bombardment since then.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And over one in 10 of the 2.3 million prewar population have been killed or injured since Israel began its war on Gaza, devastating the strip in what a\u00a0UN commission has declared a genocide<\/a>. Now those who remain are crammed onto a sliver of land along the coast, which we can see on the map above, while Israeli troops push back the agreed \u201cyellow line\u201d in order to seize even more territory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIsrael controls at least 60% of Gaza, which is now a wasteland. They\u2019ve demolished almost everything in the area, and almost no Palestinians can live there,\u201d says Emma.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cPart of the so-called ceasefire deal was supposed to be a lot more aid going in, but there still isn\u2019t enough. There are severe shortages of clean water, medical supplies, and food. A lot of people are still going hungry.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Israel, which has repeatedly weaponised access to food and other basic supplies, says sufficient aid reaches Gaza. Last summer, a ban on food shipments caused a famine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIt\u2019s an ongoing humanitarian catastrophe,\u201d says Emma. \u201cThat\u2019s in addition to the combat actions killing on average over 100 people each month, which in most parts of the world would be considered an active war zone.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Yet there is little interest from the White House, despite Trump\u2019s well-rehearsed obsession with winning the Nobel Peace Prize. \u201c[Special envoy] Steve Witkoff and [Trump\u2019s son-in-law] Jared Kushner have reportedly been taken off Gaza to focus on Iran because it’s more of a priority for Trump. It\u2019s unpopular at home, and has had a damaging effect on the cost of living in the US,\u201d says Emma.<\/p>\n\n\n\n EU leaders are expected to rebuke Netanyahu for his continued expansion in Gaza and Lebanon at a forthcoming Brussels summit, but says Emma, he has a long history of shaking off criticism, and the EU has yet to use any of its considerable economic and political leverage \u2013 it is Israel\u2019s biggest trading partner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The situation in Gaza does not seem to be a priority for governments around the world, which are more concerned about the impact of the war in Iran on higher oil prices and inflation. \u201cWe see plenty of condemnation but very few practical steps that mean an improvement for people in Gaza who are living in this terrible limbo.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Living day to day in Iran and Lebanon<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Indeed, people are living in limbo across the region, says Emma.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cUndeniably, many Iranians really hate their government \u2013 we saw that in January, then they came out in protest and were killed in very large numbers trying to get rid of it,\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n But that doesn\u2019t mean they have faith that the war will bring about a better alternative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cEqually, they don\u2019t believe \u2013 and history provides plenty of evidence for this \u2013 that liberation is going to come through a western bombing campaign.\u201d Iranians need only recall the decades-long conflict and political turmoil prompted by the US-led coalition\u2019s disastrous invasion of neighbouring Iraq.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIf you\u2019re in Tehran, particularly if you\u2019re anti-government, you\u2019ve probably lost friends in January, you\u2019re living under some bombardment, which is pretty terrifying because there aren\u2019t air raid shelters, and you\u2019re staring down more war, or at the worst, collapse into a failed state,\u201d says Emma.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cYou can see why people are very worried and very frightened.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Iranians have told the Guardian they feel abandoned by foreign powers,<\/strong>\u00a0enduring the fallout of the war, which has damaged an already faltering economy and strengthened the oppressive regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cI feel humiliated,\u201d Amir, <\/strong>a business owner from Mashhad, told one of our reporters recently<\/a>. He had once <\/strong>desperately hoped for US intervention, but <\/strong>he now finds himself questioning <\/strong>that. \u201cThis is not a ceasefire. It\u2019s a never-ending auction between the US and the Islamic Republic over our lives and our blood.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n The situation is similar in Lebanon, Emma tells me. \u201cLarge sections of the population do not support Hezbollah. But Israel is bombing Beirut, occupying the south and demolishing whole villages, which Human Rights groups say should be investigated as war crimes<\/a>; there\u2019s no belief that this is going to bring them freedom or prosperity.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Alongside the immediate threat to personal safety, there\u2019s the economic impact \u2013 which always hits women, minorities and poorer people the hardest \u2013 as well as the psychological drag of uncertainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIn Lebanon, there\u2019s the difficulty of planning summer visits for families when international travel shuts down. And obviously, hanging over them are generational memories of the horrors of the civil war in the 80s, and the 2006 war with Israel.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\nFive big stories<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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In depth: \u2018This is not a ceasefire. It\u2019s a never-ending auction over our lives and our blood\u2019<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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