Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s decision to skip the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Kazakhstan reflects a strategic recalibration in India’s foreign policy priorities. While External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar represented India, the absence of PM Modi signals a nuanced approach shaped by geopolitical realities and domestic considerations.
莫迪总理决定不参加在哈萨克斯坦举行的上海合作组织峰会，这反映了印度外交政策重点的战略调整。虽然外交部长S. Jaishankar代表印度，但莫迪总理的缺席表明，地缘政治现实和国内考虑决定了一种微妙的做法。
India’s stance towards the SCO, particularly under the dominant influence of China and Russia, has become increasingly cautious. The grouping, initially aimed at fostering Eurasian security and economic cooperation, now navigates complex dynamics exacerbated by regional tensions and global power plays. Modi’s absence highlights India’s reservations about China’s assertive stance on border issues, compounded by Russia’s evolving alignment with Beijing amid Western sanctions post-Ukraine.
印度对上海合作组织的立场，特别是在中国和俄罗斯的主导影响下，变得越来越谨慎。该组织最初旨在促进欧亚安全与经济合作，如今却要应对因地区紧张局势和全球实力竞争而加剧的复杂动态。莫迪的缺席凸显了印度对中国在边界问题上的强硬立场持保留态度，再加上俄罗斯在乌克兰危机后的西方制裁下与北京结盟。
India’s strategic alignment with the United States and European countries underscores its evolving foreign policy calculus. Amid growing Indo-Pacific dynamics and competition with China, India seeks to leverage partnerships that align closely with its national interests and strategic goals. Modi’s recent participation in the G7 Outreach in Italy and upcoming visit to Moscow underscore India’s efforts to maintain a balanced approach amidst shifting global alliances.
印度与美国和欧洲国家的战略结盟凸显了其不断演变的外交政策考量。在印度-太平洋地区日益增长的动态和与中国的竞争中，印度寻求利用与其国家利益和战略目标密切相关的伙伴关系。莫迪最近参加了在意大利举行的七国集团外展会议，并即将访问莫斯科，这突显了印度在不断变化的全球联盟中保持平衡的努力。
The SCO, despite its potential economic benefits and security cooperation frameworks, poses challenges for India due to its rivalries within the group and divergent strategic priorities. Modi’s absence may be interpreted as a diplomatic signal of India’s cautious approach towards engagements where its core interests are not fully aligned.
上海合作组织尽管具有潜在的经济利益和安全合作框架，但由于其内部的竞争和不同的战略重点，给印度带来了挑战。莫迪的缺席可能被解读为印度对其核心利益不完全一致的接触采取谨慎态度的外交信号。
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s absence from the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in 2024 carries significant implications both regionally and globally, affecting bilateral relations and multilateral dynamics. The decision underscores India’s strategic repositioning and its prioritization of engagements that align more closely with its national interests and strategic partnerships.
莫迪总理缺席2024年上海合作组织峰会，将对地区和全球产生重大影响，影响双边关系和多边动态。这一决定强调了印度的战略重新定位，以及与国家利益和战略伙伴关系更密切相关的优先事项。
Bilaterally, Modi’s non-participation reflects India’s cautious approach towards China and Russia, the dominant forces within the SCO. Tensions with China over border disputes, exacerbated by the Galwan Valley clash in 2020, have strained relations, making high-level engagements challenging. Similarly, Russia’s alignment with China amid Western sanctions following the Ukraine conflict has reshaped geopolitical alliances in Eurasia, influencing India’s calculus in regional groupings like the SCO.
从双边上看，莫迪的不参加反映了印度对上合组织内的主导力量中国和俄罗斯的谨慎态度。与中国在边界争端上的紧张关系，在2020年的加尔万山谷冲突中加剧，使关系紧张，使高层接触具有挑战性。同样，在乌克兰冲突后西方实施制裁之际，俄罗斯与中国结盟，重塑了欧亚大陆的地缘政治联盟，影响了印度在上海合作组织等地区组织中的盘算。
Multilaterally, Modi’s absence may impact India’s influence and standing within the SCO framework. As a full member since 2017, India’s participation was initially seen as pivotal for balancing the SCO’s dynamics and fostering inclusive regional cooperation. However, by choosing to send the External Affairs Minister instead, India may signal a strategic distancing from SCO initiatives that do not directly advance its geopolitical and economic interests.
从多边角度看，莫迪缺席可能影响印度在上合组织框架内的影响力和地位。印度于2017年成为上海合作组织正式成员，最初被视为平衡上海合作组织动态和促进包容性区域合作的关键。然而，印度选择派外交部长出席，可能表明印度在战略上与上海合作组织的倡议保持距离，这些倡议不会直接促进印度的地缘政治和经济利益。
Regionally, Modi’s decision could potentially strain relations with SCO members, particularly China and Russia, who view India’s participation as integral to balancing regional power dynamics. India’s absence at the summit may prompt recalibrations in regional alliances and influence perceptions of India’s commitment to Eurasian security and economic cooperation.
就地区而言，莫迪的决定可能会导致与上海合作组织成员国的关系紧张，特别是中国和俄罗斯，他们认为印度的参与是平衡地区力量动态的组成部分。印度在峰会上的缺席可能会促使地区联盟重新调整，并影响人们对印度对欧亚安全和经济合作的承诺的看法。
Globally, the West, particularly the United States and its allies, may interpret Modi’s absence as a strategic maneuver aimed at reinforcing India’s alignment with Western democracies amidst growing Indo-Pacific tensions. India’s recent engagements with the G7 and forthcoming visit to Moscow suggest a nuanced approach to global partnerships, emphasizing strategic autonomy and diversified alliances.
在全球范围内，西方，尤其是美国及其盟友，可能会将莫迪的缺席解读为一种战略机动，旨在加强印度与西方民主国家的结盟，以应对印度-太平洋地区日益紧张的局势。印度最近与七国集团(G7)的接触以及即将对莫斯科的访问表明，印度对全球伙伴关系采取了微妙的态度，强调战略自主和多元化的联盟。
As a matter of fact, PM Modi is focused on material gains, if he is convinced that Western alignment can be more beneficial, he might quit from SCO. On the other hand, his role in BRICS is also negative and always opposing any initiative taken by the member states. Like, de-dollarization, or alternate currency was always opposed by India. India also opposed expansion of BRICS membership. As a matter of fact, India was protecting American interests while sitting BRICS or SCO. His role was always pro-west and compromising on regional interests. India has no friend at its borders, and keeping hostile relations with all of its neighbors, like China, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Maldives, all have various degree of disputes and difference with India and confrontation.
事实上，莫迪总理关注的是物质利益，如果他确信西方联盟更有益，他可能会退出上合组织。另一方面，他在金砖国家的作用也是消极的，总是反对成员国的任何倡议。比如，去美元化或替代货币一直遭到印度的反对。印度也反对扩大金砖国家成员。事实上，印度在担任金砖国家或上海合作组织主席时保护了美国的利益。他的角色总是亲西方，在地区利益上妥协。印度在边界上没有朋友，与所有邻国保持敌对关系，如中国、巴基斯坦、尼泊尔、孟加拉国、缅甸、斯里兰卡和马尔代夫，都与印度有不同程度的争端和分歧和对抗。
Simply, India is miss-fit in this region and regional alliances. It is better India should quite membership of BRICS & SCO and may remain in Quad, AUKUS, Indo-Pacific Alliance, and keep relations only with America, Australia, Japan, Philippine and UK. Indian hypocrisy cannot survive forever, sooner or later, once every one understand India, may keep distance from it. It is better for India as well as for the whole region that India decide once for all and should not put feet on two different boats sailing into opposite directions.
简单地说，印度不适合这个地区和地区联盟。印度最好放弃金砖国家和上海合作组织的成员资格，留在四国联盟、亚太联盟、印太联盟，只与美国、澳大利亚、日本、菲律宾和英国保持关系。印度的虚伪不可能永远存在，迟早，一旦每个人都了解印度，可能会与之保持距离。对印度和整个地区来说，最好是印度一劳永逸地做出决定，不要把脚放在两艘驶向相反方向的不同船上。
However, SCO and BRICS will grow and expand further, and may reach to a stage where it can replace some of the functions of the UN. Bright future for BRICS and SCO. Bye Bye India!
但是，上海合作组织和金砖国家将进一步发展壮大，并可能达到取代联合国部分职能的阶段。金砖国家和上海合作组织前景光明。再见，印度!
（ 注意： 本文章用机器翻译的，很可能有差异。请参考原版英文的。谢谢。）
Reference Link:- https://www2.apdnews.cn/en/item/24/0711/axjdcjcc376207caa8aa81.html