As the conflict in Ukraine continues to wreak havoc, international efforts to find a peaceful resolution are intensifying. The latest Geneva Peace Conference, held on 21 June 2024, and the G-7 Summit in Italy have both focused heavily on the prospects for peace in Ukraine. Despite the concerted efforts, significant differences remain, particularly between the United States and its allies, which complicate the path to a lasting peace.
随着乌克兰冲突继续肆虐，寻求和平解决方案的国际努力正在加强。2024年6月21日举行的最近一次日内瓦和平会议和在意大利举行的七国集团首脑会议都着重讨论了乌克兰的和平前景。尽管各方做出了共同努力，但仍存在重大分歧，尤其是美国与其盟国之间的分歧，这使实现持久和平的道路复杂化。
Geneva Peace Conference Highlights 日内瓦和平会议要点
The Geneva Peace Conference brought together key stakeholders to discuss a roadmap for peace in Ukraine. The conference emphasized the urgent need for a ceasefire, humanitarian aid, and a political dialogue involving all parties directly affected by the conflict. However, a notable absentee from the conference was Russia, whose exclusion has sparked considerable debate. Either Russia was kept outside deliberately and the organizers were not sincere with Ukraine peace and it was an exercise of eye wash merely, or made a blunder unintentionally.
日内瓦和平会议将主要利益攸关方聚集在一起，讨论乌克兰和平路线图。会议强调，迫切需要停火、人道主义援助和让所有直接受冲突影响的各方参与政治对话。然而，值得注意的是，俄罗斯没有参加这次会议，它的缺席引发了相当大的争论。要么是俄罗斯被故意挡在外面，组织者对乌克兰的和平没有诚意，这只是一种洗眼练习，要么是无意中犯了一个错误。
G-7 Summit Discussions 七国集团峰会讨论
At the G-7 Summit in Italy, Ukraine dominated the agenda. The leaders discussed the ongoing support for Ukraine, the enforcement of sanctions against Russia, and the potential for a diplomatic solution. While there was broad agreement on the need to support Ukraine’s sovereignty, sharp differences emerged regarding the approach to peace negotiations. Especially some of close allies and NATO members were of different opinion.
在意大利举行的七国集团首脑会议上，乌克兰问题占据了主要议程。两位领导人讨论了对乌克兰的持续支持、对俄罗斯实施制裁以及外交解决方案的可能性。虽然各方在支持乌克兰主权的必要性上达成了广泛共识，但在和平谈判的方式上出现了尖锐分歧。特别是一些亲密盟友和北约成员国的意见不同。
US and Allied Differences 美国和盟国的分歧
The United States has maintained a hardline stance, insisting that any peace plan must include Russia’s withdrawal from all occupied Ukrainian territories. Conversely, some European nations have advocated for a more flexible approach, suggesting phased withdrawal and security guarantees for both Ukraine and Russia. These differences have created a rift within the alliance, complicating the development of a unified peace strategy.
美国一直保持强硬立场，坚持任何和平计划都必须包括俄罗斯撤出所有被占领的乌克兰领土。相反，一些欧洲国家主张采取更灵活的方式，建议分阶段撤军，并为乌克兰和俄罗斯提供安全保障。这些分歧在联盟内部造成了裂痕，使统一和平战略的发展复杂化。
Russia’s Exclusion: Strategic Decision or Blunder? 排除俄罗斯:战略决策还是失误?
Russia’s exclusion from the Geneva Peace Conference was a deliberate decision by the Western powers, aimed at pressuring Moscow to change its course. However, critics argue that excluding Russia from the peace process might have been a strategic blunder, as it undermines the potential for comprehensive negotiations. Without Russia’s participation, any peace agreement may lack legitimacy and enforceability, potentially prolonging the conflict.
俄罗斯被排除在日内瓦和平会议之外是西方列强深思熟虑的决定，目的是向莫斯科施压，迫使其改变路线。然而，批评人士认为，将俄罗斯排除在和平进程之外可能是一个战略失误，因为它破坏了全面谈判的潜力。没有俄罗斯的参与，任何和平协议都可能缺乏合法性和可执行性，从而可能延长冲突。
The Absence of China 中国的缺席
China’s absence from the peace efforts is also noteworthy. As a major global power and a proponent of a peaceful resolution, China has previously brokered significant deals, such as the recent peace agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s global peace initiative underscores China’s potential role as a mediator. However, China’s non-participation in the Ukraine peace process could diminish the prospects for a balanced and inclusive agreement, as its influence could have bridged some of the divides between the West and Russia.
中国没有参与和平努力也值得注意。作为一个重要的全球大国和和平解决方案的支持者，中国此前曾促成过重大交易，比如最近伊朗和沙特阿拉伯之间的和平协议。然而，中国不参与乌克兰和平进程可能会削弱达成平衡和包容协议的前景，因为中国的影响力本可以弥合西方和俄罗斯之间的一些分歧。
NATO and European Involvement 北约和欧洲的参与
The active participation of NATO and certain European countries has added layers of complexity to the Ukraine crisis. NATO’s involvement is seen by Russia as a direct threat, escalating tensions and increasing the risk of a broader conflict. Russia has even threatened the use of nuclear weapons should NATO become directly involved in the conflict. Additionally, Russia has warned of arming anti-American nations in retaliation for Western weapons supplied to Ukraine being used inside Russian territory.
北约和某些欧洲国家的积极参与使乌克兰危机更加复杂。北约的介入被俄罗斯视为直接威胁，加剧了紧张局势，增加了爆发更广泛冲突的风险。俄罗斯甚至威胁说，如果北约直接卷入冲突，俄罗斯将使用核武器。此外，俄罗斯警告要武装反美国家，以报复西方向乌克兰提供的武器在俄罗斯境内被使用。
The Scary Scenario for Europe 欧洲的可怕前景
The ongoing Ukraine war has created an alarming scenario for Europe, with fears that the conflict could spill over into neighboring countries. The possibility of a broader European war is a nightmarish prospect, raising concerns about widespread devastation, refugee crises, and economic turmoil. Should the conflict escalate further, it could draw in other European nations, either through military alliances or the sheer necessity of defending their borders. The ripple effects could destabilize the entire continent, leading to a humanitarian disaster of unprecedented scale.
正在进行的乌克兰战争给欧洲制造了一个令人担忧的局面，人们担心冲突可能会蔓延到邻国。一场更广泛的欧洲战争的可能性是一个噩梦般的前景，引发了人们对广泛破坏、难民危机和经济动荡的担忧。如果冲突进一步升级，其他欧洲国家可能会卷入其中，要么是通过军事联盟，要么是为了保卫自己的边界。连锁反应可能会破坏整个大陆的稳定，导致一场规模空前的人道主义灾难。
Global Implications 全球性的影响
The potential for the Ukraine crisis to engulf Europe and extend to other parts of the world, including America, cannot be ignored. An escalation into a full-blown regional or even global war (WWIII) would have catastrophic consequences. The involvement of major world powers, coupled with the risk of nuclear confrontation, presents a scenario where the very fabric of international peace and security could be torn apart. The global economy would suffer immensely, and the political landscape would be irrevocably altered. The stakes are incredibly high, making the pursuit of a diplomatic and peaceful resolution more crucial than ever.
乌克兰危机吞噬欧洲并蔓延到包括美国在内的世界其他地区的可能性不容忽视。升级为全面的地区甚至全球战争(第三次世界大战)将带来灾难性的后果。世界主要大国的参与，加上核对抗的危险，构成了一种局面，即国际和平与安全的结构本身可能被撕裂。全球经济将遭受巨大损失，政治格局将不可逆转地改变。赌注高得令人难以置信，这使得寻求外交与和平解决方案比以往任何时候都更加重要。
A Path to Peace 通往和平之路
The Geneva Peace Conference and the G-7 Summit have highlighted both the challenges and the urgent need for a peaceful resolution in Ukraine. The international community remains divided on the best approach, with significant differences between the US and its allies. The exclusion of Russia and China from the peace process further complicates matters, potentially limiting the effectiveness of any proposed solutions.
日内瓦和平会议和七国集团首脑会议强调了和平解决乌克兰问题的挑战和迫切需要。国际社会在最佳解决方案上仍存在分歧，美国与其盟友之间存在显著分歧。将俄罗斯和中国排除在和平进程之外使问题进一步复杂化，可能会限制任何拟议解决方案的有效性。
Balancing the Western narrative with the Russian perspective, it is clear that a comprehensive and inclusive dialogue involving all key players is essential for achieving lasting peace in Ukraine. The international community must work towards bridging the gaps and addressing the legitimate concerns of all parties to prevent further escalation and to secure a stable and peaceful future for the region.
平衡西方的叙述和俄罗斯的观点，很明显，一个包括所有关键参与者的全面和包容的对话对于实现乌克兰的持久和平至关重要。国际社会必须努力弥合分歧，解决各方合理关切，防止局势进一步升级，确保该地区有一个稳定与和平的未来。
Unfortunately, today the world has piles of lethal, weapons, including nuclear weapons, enough to eliminate the entire humankind from this earth. If in time preventive measures are not placed, the danger of unimaginable disaster exit.
不幸的是，今天世界上有大量的致命武器，包括核武器，足以从这个地球上消灭全人类。如果不及时放置预防措施，危险将不可想象的灾难退出。
( 注意：本文章用机器翻译的，很可能有差异。请参考原版英文的。谢谢。）
Reference Link:- https://www2.apdnews.cn/en/item/24/0624/axjdcffze957d8ce57d436.html
Complete scenario of disaster.
Thank you