Rare Chances of any improvement in India-Pakistan Relations under Modi’s 3rd Term.

As Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi took the oath of office for the third consecutive time on June 9, the ceremony was marked by the presence of leaders from various neighboring countries, but conspicuously absent was the Prime Minister of Pakistan. This absence underscored the strained relations between the two nuclear-armed neighbors, a relationship that has seen little improvement under Modi’s tenure and shows no signs of thawing in the foreseeable future. However, Pakistani leadership has sent messages of greetings.

Modi’s Anti-Muslim and Anti-Pakistan Stance

Narendra Modi’s tenure has been marked by policies and actions that have fostered deep divisions, both domestically and internationally. His controversial past includes the 2002 Gujarat riots, where, as Chief Minister, his administration was accused of turning a blind eye to, or even encouraging, violence that resulted in the massacre of hundreds of Muslims. This dark chapter has left an indelible mark on his reputation, particularly among Muslims in India and Pakistan.

Further exacerbating tensions, Modi’s government took a hardline approach in 2019 by revoking Article 370, which granted special autonomy to Jammu and Kashmir, a region disputed by Pakistan. This move was widely condemned and seen as an attempt to undermine the Muslim-majority state’s rights and integrate it forcefully into the Indian Union. Additionally, the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), passed the same year, was criticized for discriminating against Muslims by providing a path to citizenship for non-Muslim refugees from neighboring countries, which sparked widespread protests and further alienated the Muslim community.

The Current Political Climate

Modi’s third term begins with a backdrop of these controversial policies and actions, which continue to fuel distrust and hostility. His administration’s exclusion of Muslims from significant political positions, including his cabinet, signals a continuation of policies that marginalize minority communities. Analysts suggest that Modi’s government has little incentive to mend relations with Pakistan, given that anti-Pakistan rhetoric has proven electorally beneficial for his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Early signs in Modi’s third term indicate a continuation of a hardline stance. On the day of his inauguration, a bus carrying Hindu pilgrims in Indian-administered Kashmir was attacked, leading to accusations from Indian security agencies of Pakistani involvement. Without compiling evidence or any investigation, immediately blaming Pakistan is obviously reflection of his mind-set. Although these claims were denied by Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry, such incidents reinforce the narrative that Pakistan is a security threat, justifying India’s rigid stance.

The Impact on India-Pakistan Relations

With Modi’s administration maintaining a strong focus on security and counter-terrorism, there is little room for diplomatic engagement. India’s approach has been to increase the costs for Pakistan’s alleged support for terrorism, demanding tangible actions from Pakistan as a precondition for any diplomatic dialogue. This rigid stance, combined with Modi’s domestic policies that alienate Muslims, makes any meaningful engagement with Pakistan unlikely.

The economic and political dynamics also play a role. While improved relations would undoubtedly benefit both nations, India’s much larger economy gives it leverage. Pakistan, struggling with economic instability and seeking IMF loans, is at a disadvantage, making it harder to push for concessions from India.

A Glimmer of Hope?

Despite the bleak outlook, there have been sporadic gestures of goodwill. Former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s congratulatory message to Modi upon his re-election hinted at a desire for improved relations. However, such diplomatic niceties have yet to translate into concrete policy changes. Modi’s response, while polite, was non-committal, reflecting the broader indifference in New Delhi towards re-engagement with Islamabad.

Conclusion

As Narendra Modi embarks on his third term, the prospects for improved India-Pakistan relations appear dim. His administration’s history of anti-Muslim policies, anti-Pakistan, and anti-Minority’s policies coupled with a strategic focus on portraying Pakistan as a security threat, suggests that the status quo will prevail. While the long-term benefits of peaceful coexistence and cooperation are clear, the immediate political and strategic calculus in New Delhi points towards continued hostility and disengagement. For now, the hopes for breaking the ice between the two nations rest on the distant horizon, overshadowed by the complexities and conflicts of the present. Above all, his political strength is RSS, which is an extremist and fanetic political force and totally anti-Pakistan. His vote bank is based on anti-Pakistan sentiments. Even though, if he wants to change his attitude toward Pakistan, his voters will not allow him. There are rare chances of improvement in relations between India and Pakistan under his third tenure.

Reference Link:- https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/17/will-indias-modi-break-the-ice-with-pakistan-in-his-third-term