| 中国行对夏巴兹的政治雄心意味着什么 | What does China’s trip mean for the political ambitions of Shabaz |
| 巴基斯坦当选总理夏巴兹·谢里夫（Muhammad Shahbaz Sharif）于6月4日至8日率领庞大的政商代表团访问中国。这也是他以总理身份第二次访华，同时也是距离他1981年首次到访中国已经过去了四十三年。 四十多年前，夏巴兹对中国的印象是大街上几乎看不到什么小轿车，只有公交车和自行车。而如今以20万亿美元GDP雄踞世界第二大经济体的中国，带给夏巴兹的视觉冲击显然非常巨大。 当巴基斯坦历史上首位遭国民议会罢免的总理伊姆兰·汗（Imran Khan）2022年在任期未满下台后，夏巴兹·谢里夫荣登总理宝座。相较于三次问鼎总理的他哥哥纳瓦兹·谢里夫（Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif），夏巴兹虽然首次当选总理，但其从政经历并不简单。而就任总理后，他在国际外交、地缘政治、政党关系、国内经济发展等方面，亦凸显其政治雄心的特别之处。 夏巴兹早在三十多岁就入选省议会，不到四十岁当选巴基斯坦国民议会议员。其从政生涯中，浓墨重彩的部分包括长期主政巴国经济、人口大省旁遮普省，分别于1997年、2008年、2013年三度出任旁遮普省首席部长。早在2017年，巴基斯坦穆斯林联盟（谢里夫派）宣布，就曾提名时任旁遮普省首席部长夏巴兹·谢里夫为新总理人选。 而在次年3月，他又当选巴基斯坦穆斯林联盟-谢里夫派（PML-N）党主席，同年8月当选巴基斯坦国民议会反对党领袖，并参选总理，遗憾的是后来“惜败”风头正健的伊姆兰·汗。在伊姆兰汗被弹劾下台后，夏巴兹接任总理。坊间有评论认为，这是谢里夫家族“扶持”夏巴兹、尤其是其三度当选总理的哥哥纳瓦兹·谢里夫“让贤”。事实上，这是对夏巴兹政治实力以及巴基斯坦政治形势的不了解。 虽然以七十高龄问鼎总理，但夏巴兹的政治雄心有别于巴基斯坦其他政治人物，这从他这次正式当选后的访华行程可窥知一二。 以巴基斯坦第24任总理身份访华的夏巴兹，并非单纯的政治出访。而是打出政治、经贸、国际关系、地缘政治等一套“组合拳”。夏巴兹访华首站没有按惯常程序先到北京，而是首访深圳，尤其是带领了包括一位副总理、十余位内阁部长，以及一百二十余家巴基斯坦企业家在内的庞大政商代表团，同时在深圳举行了超过六百人规模的巴中高级商务会议。笔者在2022年11月当时夏巴兹首次访华的视频会议中，以及今年二月份和巴基斯坦新任驻华哈利勒·哈什米（KHALIL HASHMI）正式递交国书后的首次会谈中，曾建议巴新总理尽早启动访华行程，如果时间允许，建议把深圳作为访华重点城市之一，因为深圳的市场化建设、产业、科技、创新等要素，会对巴有很大的借鉴意义。哈什米大使听取建议后，曾于夏巴兹访华前两度到深访问踩点。 夏巴兹在长达二十多分钟的脱稿讲演中，提到了深圳从当年一个小渔村飞跃成为GDP超过5000亿美元的国际化大都市，而深圳的人口不过1300万（夏巴兹演讲数据）。相比之下，巴基斯坦以2.5亿人口，经济总量不过才是深圳的一半多。他援引有关数据指出，中国对外出口总值已经达到了上万亿美元，但巴基斯坦迄今出口总值只有300多亿美元。他还以中国著名的愚公移山精神，强调值得巴方世世代代学习。夏巴兹在充满激情的讲演中，他提到了深圳特区的缔造者、也是中国改革开放的总设计师邓小平。 毫无疑问，邓小平对中国改革开放的成功，让夏巴兹印象深刻，尤其是在深圳的所见所闻，更激发他推进巴基斯坦经济发展的政治雄心。夏巴兹讲演中，隐隐含有以举世所知名的中国经济特区深圳的建设成就，以及具有世界影响力的中国领导人邓小平作为对标样板，强调巴基斯坦的发展也将达到中国的发展成就，不难看出其政治雄心之所在。他称：“如今我们看到中国通过自己的努力成为世界上一个伟大和强盛的国家。我认为，只要巴基斯坦虚心向中国学习，就一定有希望跟着中国的步伐，逐渐实现巴基斯坦本国的现代化”。 夏巴兹一再提到深圳的发展堪称本世纪的奇迹，而巴基斯坦，正需要深圳的发展经验。他挥舞着手势高呼：“看看这巨大的进步、看看这彻底的转变，然后回到巴基斯坦，从深圳速度中学习经验”。他更充满感情地表示：“我不仅作为巴基斯坦总理，而且是作为巴基斯坦的‘首席执行官’向你们保证，我将以前所未有的方式全力支持你们，促进你们为达成商业合作所做的一切努力，让巴基斯坦和中国商人共同受益、互惠互利。” 除了带领并推动巴基斯坦企业家与中国企业深度对接，夏巴兹亦展示其柔软身段和强大的执行力，在访问华为时签署了培训巴基斯坦20万技能人才的战略合作协议，并对深圳高效的服务企业的行政运行程序大为认同，当场表示要“我想把这种服务借鉴到巴基斯坦”，并强调“我是认真的！” 夏巴兹获选后曾呼吁各界人士必须团结起来，改变国家命运，克服接下来的挑战。正如其所言，巴基斯坦面临的挑战前所未有。一方面，以正义运动党为代表的反对势力仍不可忽视，更重要的是，巴基斯坦面临高通胀和债务危机压力，以及物价飞涨、民众生活成本飙升、国际地缘政治复杂多变等多重内外部挑战。 夏巴兹当选后大打“中国牌”，不仅明确表态巴中关系的牢不可破，更强调深度推进“中巴经济走廊”建设。夏巴兹主政旁遮普省期间曾与中方“密切合作”，中巴经济走廊首个建成投产的重大能源项目——萨希瓦尔燃煤电站就坐落在旁遮普省。 夏巴兹此次访华的另一重头戏亮点体现在与中国党政主要领导人的密集会面和中巴联合声明的发布。在出席完深圳的大型商务会议后，夏巴兹当天即飞抵北京，于6月7日和国家主席习近平会晤时，他强调“没有任何势力能够动摇巴中铁杆友谊”，愿同中方持续高质量共建“一带一路”，深化各领域务实合作。同时，夏巴兹还表态巴方高度赞赏并全力支持中方提出的全球发展倡议、全球安全倡议、全球文明倡议。在与中国总理李强的会谈中，他表示将深入推进中巴经济走廊建设，加强经贸、投资、农业、人文等领域交流合作，并见证签署包括交通、产业、农业、市场监管、民生、影视、能力建设等领域多项双边合作文件。在与全国人大常委会委员长赵乐际的会见中，夏巴兹强调了愿促进两国立法机构合作。 在中国的外交语境中，并不是每一位领导人或每一次访华，两国间都会发表联合声明，但夏巴兹的两次访华，均与中方发布了联合声明，这显示出中巴关系的特殊性，以及巴中两国就访问达成的效果具有同频共振认识。夏巴兹是次访华的巴中联合声明中，除了涉及广泛的产业合作、经贸往来、科技协作、金融协作、走廊项目建设等传统内容，更就国际气候变化、两国军事演练交流、南亚和平稳定、共同反对霸权霸凌霸道，共同反对排他性做法，共同反对强权政治，共同反对各种形式的单边主义，甚至在加强阿富汗问题上的沟通协调、解决当前加沙危机等国际话题领域也着墨不少，这充分显示夏巴兹此访在打“中国牌”的同时，也在打“国际牌”。 中国历经四十多年改革开放所取得的成绩，毫无疑问对巴基斯坦具有极大的参考作用和借鉴意义，相当多层面，甚至可以是 “拿来主义“直接就用。比如中巴都是人口大国、都是农业占比极重，都是从人均收入极低起步。笔者2018年访问巴基斯坦时，看到巴民众全家八九口人挤在一辆小车上欢天喜地出行的情景，和当年改开之初，中国人买了一辆夏利汽车，举家欢庆的场景何其相似。而这种对美好生活的渴望，正是国家发展的内生动力。如果当政者专注于经济建设，引导、激发民众旺盛的生产激情，焉知今日之中国不是巴基斯坦之明日景象？长于经济事务的夏巴兹显然对巴国民众的渴望了然于胸。他的政治雄心如果想实现，把巴基斯坦经济搞上去、获得民众的支持，无疑是重要因素。正如他几度强力执掌经济大省旁遮普省一样。 虽然夏巴兹访华期间反复强调了吸引对巴投资的迫切，其雄心勃勃地期待进一步深化中巴经济走廊的二期建设，希望能以超过百亿美金的巨大项目撬动巴基斯坦经济的振兴。但巴基斯坦此起彼伏的恐怖袭击事件给众多投资者蒙上阴影。据巴基斯坦冲突与安全研究所（PICSS）数据，2023 年巴基斯坦全国至少发生了 645 起恐怖袭击事件，其中有29起是自杀式袭击，共造成 976 人死亡，1354 人受伤。而在夏巴兹访华前的3月份，刚有数名中国公民在巴恐袭中丧生。近五年来，中国公民在巴遇袭身亡的案例呈现严峻情势。夏巴兹访华期间，也多次重申了巴政府对恐袭事件造成中方人员遇难表示深切哀悼，表态将坚决打击并严惩涉案恐怖分子，采取切实有效措施，确保在巴中方人员、机构的安全。 此起彼伏的巴基斯坦恐怖袭击事件，虽然包括地缘政治、历史纠葛、宗教极端主义、政治不稳定、经济社会问题等诸多因素叠加累积，但如若巴方对极端主义组织、恐怖势力不能形成有效打击，将严重挫伤国际投资者、尤其是数量庞大的中国投资者的信心。一个缺乏基本人身安全的国度，再高的投资回报，也将不具有吸引力。这也将对夏巴兹治理巴基斯坦的政治雄心形成挑战。 撰文 吴永强博士 （本文作者为巴基斯坦问题专家） | Pakistani Prime Minister Muhammad Shahbaz Sharif led a large political and business delegation to visit China from June 4th to 8th. This is also his second visit to China as Prime Minister, and it has been 43 years since his first visit to China in 1981. More than forty years ago, Shabaz’s impression of China was that there were hardly any small cars on the streets, only buses and bicycles. And now, with a GDP of $20 trillion, China, which dominates the world’s second largest economy, the visual impact on Shabaz is clearly very huge. When Imran Khan, the first Prime Minister in Pakistan’s history to be dismissed by the National Assembly, stepped down before the end of his term in 2022, Shabaz Sharif ascended to the throne of Prime Minister. Compared to his brother, Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif, who had won the prime minister three times, although Shabaz was elected as prime minister for the first time, his political experience was not simple. After taking office as Prime Minister, he also highlighted the unique aspects of his political ambitions in international diplomacy, geopolitics, political party relations, and domestic economic development. Shabaz was elected to the provincial parliament as early as his thirties, and was elected as a member of the Pakistani National Assembly before the age of forty. During his political career, he had a strong influence, including his long-term rule over the economy of Pakistan and the populous province of Punjab. He served as the Chief Minister of Punjab three times in 1997, 2008, and 2013, respectively. As early as 2017, the Pakistan Muslim League (Sharif faction) announced that it had nominated then Chief Minister of Punjab, Shabaz Sharif, as the new Prime Minister candidate. In March of the following year, he was elected as the chairman of the Pakistan Muslim League Sharif (PML-N) party, and in August of the same year, he was elected as the leader of the opposition party in the National Assembly of Pakistan and ran for Prime Minister. Unfortunately, he later narrowly defeated the thriving Imran Khan. After Imran Khan was impeached and stepped down, Shabaz took over as Prime Minister. Some comments suggest that this is because the Sharif family “supports” Shabaz, especially his brother Navaz Sharif, who has been elected prime minister three times, “giving up his talents.”. In fact, this is a lack of understanding of the political power of Shabaz and the political situation in Pakistan. Although he became prime minister at the age of seventy, Shabaz’s political ambitions are different from other politicians in Pakistan, as can be seen from his visit to China after his official election. Shabaz’s visit to China as the 24th Prime Minister of Pakistan is not just a political trip. But rather, it is a combination of politics, economy and trade, international relations, and geopolitics. Shabaz’s first visit to China did not follow the usual procedure to Beijing, but instead made his first visit to Shenzhen. He led a large political and business delegation, including a Vice Premier, more than ten cabinet ministers, and more than 120 Pakistani entrepreneurs. At the same time, a senior business conference between Pakistan and China was held in Shenzhen, with a scale of over 600 people. In the video conference in November 2022, during which Shabaz made his first visit to China, and in the first meeting with Pakistan’s newly appointed ambassador to China, KHALIL HASHMI, in February of this year, the author suggested that the Prime Minister of Papua New Guinea initiate his visit to China as soon as possible. If time permits, he suggested that Shenzhen be one of the key cities for his visit to China, because Shenzhen’s market-oriented construction, industry, technology, innovation and other elements will have great reference significance for Pakistan. After listening to suggestions, Ambassador Hashmi visited Shenzhen twice before Shabaz’s visit to China. In his over 20 minute speech, Shabaz mentioned that Shenzhen has leapt from a small fishing village to an international metropolis with a GDP of over 500 billion US dollars, and its population is only 13 million (according to Shabaz’s speech data). By contrast, with a population of 250 million, Pakistan’s total economic output is just over half that of Shenzhen. He cited relevant data to point out that China’s total export value has reached trillions of US dollars, but Pakistan’s total export value so far is only over 30 billion US dollars. He also emphasized the famous Chinese spirit of Yu Gong moving mountains, emphasizing that it is worth learning from the Pakistani side for generations to come. In his passionate speech, Shabaz mentioned Deng Xiaoping, the founder of Shenzhen Special Economic Zone and the chief designer of China’s reform and opening up. Undoubtedly, Deng Xiaoping’s success in China’s reform and opening up left a deep impression on Shabaz, especially his observations in Shenzhen, which further inspired his political ambition to promote Pakistan’s economic development. He said, “Now we see China becoming a great and powerful country in the world through its own efforts. I believe that as long as Pakistan humbly learns from China, there is always hope to follow China’s footsteps and gradually achieve Pakistan’s own modernization.”. Shabaz repeatedly mentioned that Shenzhen’s development can be considered a miracle of this century, and Pakistan needs Shenzhen’s development experience. He waved his hand and shouted, “Look at this tremendous progress, look at this complete transformation, and then return to Pakistan to learn from the speed of Shenzhen.”. He expressed more emotionally, “I assure you not only as the Prime Minister of Pakistan, but also as the ‘CEO’ of Pakistan, that I will fully support you in an unprecedented way, promote all your efforts to achieve commercial cooperation, and benefit both Pakistani and Chinese businessmen.” In addition to leading and promoting deep integration between Pakistani entrepreneurs and Chinese enterprises, Shabaz also demonstrated his soft physique and strong execution ability. During his visit to Huawei, he signed a strategic cooperation agreement to train 200000 skilled personnel in Pakistan and greatly recognized the efficient administrative operation procedures of Shenzhen’s service enterprises. He expressed on the spot that “I want to learn from this service to Pakistan” and emphasized that “I am serious!” After being elected, Shabaz called on people from all walks of life to unite, change the fate of the country, and overcome the challenges ahead. As it said, Pakistan is facing unprecedented challenges. On the one hand, the opposition forces represented by the Justice Movement Party cannot be ignored. More importantly, Pakistan is facing high inflation and debt crisis pressures, as well as multiple internal and external challenges such as soaring prices, soaring living costs for the people, and complex international geopolitical changes. After being elected, Shabaz played the “Chinese card” vigorously, not only clearly stating the unbreakability of Pakistan China relations, but also emphasizing the deep promotion of the construction of the “China Pakistan Economic Corridor”. During his tenure in Punjab province, Shabaz had close cooperation with the Chinese side. The first major energy project completed and put into operation in the China Pakistan Economic Corridor, the Sahiwar coal-fired power plant, is located in Punjab province. Another highlight of Shabaz’s visit to China this time is the intensive meeting with major leaders of the Chinese party and government, as well as the release of the China Pakistan Joint Declaration. At the same time, Shabaz also expressed that the Pakistani side highly appreciates and fully supports China’s global development initiative, global security initiative, and global civilization initiative. In his meeting with Zhao Leji, Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, Shabaz emphasized his willingness to promote cooperation between the legislative bodies of the two countries. In the context of China’s diplomacy, not every leader or every visit to China will issue a joint statement between the two countries. However, both visits by Shabaz to China have issued joint statements with China, which demonstrates the special nature of China Pakistan relations and the resonance of understanding between the two countries on the results of the visit. In the joint statement between Pakistan and China during Shabaz’s visit to China, in addition to traditional content such as extensive industrial cooperation, economic and trade exchanges, scientific and technological cooperation, financial cooperation, and corridor project construction, he also focused on international climate change, military exercises and exchanges between the two countries, peace and stability in South Asia, joint opposition to hegemonic practices, exclusivity, power politics, and various forms of unilateralism. He even emphasized international topics such as strengthening communication and coordination on the Afghanistan issue and resolving the current Gaza crisis. This fully demonstrates that Shabaz’s visit is playing both the “Chinese card” and the “international card”. The achievements made by China after more than 40 years of reform and opening up undoubtedly have great reference and reference significance for Pakistan. There are many levels, and even “borrowing” can be used directly. For example, China and Pakistan are both populous countries with a heavy proportion of agriculture, starting from extremely low per capita income. When I visited Pakistan in 2018, I saw the scene of eight or nine Pakistani families crowded together in a small car to travel happily. It is very similar to the scene when the Chinese people bought a Xiali car and the whole family celebrated when it was first reopened. This desire for a better life is the endogenous driving force for national development. If the rulers focus on economic construction, guide and stimulate it. How could the strong production enthusiasm of the people know that today’s China is not the tomorrow’s scene of Pakistan? Shabaz, who is skilled in economic affairs, clearly understands the desires of the Pakistani people. If his political ambition is to be realized, it is undoubtedly an important factor to boost the Pakistani economy and gain the support of the people. Just as he has repeatedly wielded power over the economic powerhouse of Punjab. Although Shabaz repeatedly emphasized the urgency of attracting investment in Pakistan during his visit to China, he ambitiously looks forward to further deepening the second phase of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor, hoping to leverage the revitalization of Pakistan’s economy with a huge project worth over ten billion US dollars. But the frequent terrorist attacks in Pakistan have cast a shadow over many investors. According to the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security (PICSS), there were at least 645 terrorist attacks across Pakistan in 2023, of which 29 were suicide attacks, resulting in 976 deaths and 1354 injuries. In March before Shabaz’s visit to China, several Chinese citizens had just died in a terrorist attack in Pakistan. In the past five years, the cases of Chinese citizens being attacked and killed in Pakistan have presented a serious situation. During Shabaz’s visit to China, he repeatedly reiterated the Pakistani government’s deep condolences for the deaths of Chinese personnel caused by the terrorist attacks, and stated that he will resolutely crack down on and severely punish the terrorists involved, take practical and effective measures, and ensure the safety of personnel and institutions in Pakistan and China. The frequent terrorist attacks in Pakistan, including geopolitical, historical disputes, religious extremism, political instability, economic and social issues, have accumulated and accumulated. However, if Pakistan cannot effectively combat extremist organizations and terrorist forces, it will seriously undermine the confidence of international investors, especially the large number of Chinese investors. A country lacking basic personal security, no matter how high the investment return, will not be attractive. This will also challenge Shabaz’s political ambition to govern Pakistan. Writing by Dr. Wu Yongqiang (The author of this article is an expert on Pakistan) |
Source: Mr. Wu Yong Qiang , Chinese Writer and Advisor