Europe is witnessing a significant political shift as recent elections across the continent reflect changing sentiments among the electorate. These changes, characterized by the rise of both far-right and centre-right parties, could have profound implications for Europe’s domestic policies and its relationships with the rest of the world, particularly developing countries in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia.
欧洲正在见证一场重大的政治转变,欧洲大陆最近的选举反映出选民情绪的变化。以极右翼和中右翼政党的崛起为特征的这些变化,可能对欧洲的国内政策及其与世界其他地区,特别是中东、非洲和亚洲的发展中国家的关系产生深远影响。
Background of the Political Shift 政治转变的背景
The political landscape in Europe is experiencing a transformation, marked by the resurgence of conservative parties and the growing influence of far-right factions. Key elections in Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Hungary, and Austria have highlighted this trend.
欧洲的政治格局正在经历一场变革,其标志是保守派政党的复苏和极右翼派系的影响力日益增强。德国、意大利、荷兰、匈牙利和奥地利的关键选举突显了这一趋势。
• Germany: Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition of Social Democrats, Greens, and liberals has faced significant challenges, exacerbated by the economic impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a surge in migration. The conservative CDU emerged as the largest party with 30% of the vote, while the far-right AfD also made significant gains.
•德国:总理奥拉夫·肖尔茨(Olaf Scholz)领导的由社会民主党、绿党和自由派组成的联盟面临着重大挑战,俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的经济影响和移民激增加剧了这些挑战。保守的基督教民主联盟(CDU)以30%的得票率成为第一大党,而极右翼的德国新选择党(AfD)也取得了显著进展。
• Italy: Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s right-wing Brothers of Italy party secured 29% of the vote, consolidating her power. Meanwhile, the opposition centre-left Democratic Party also performed well, securing 24% of the vote.
•意大利:总理乔治娅•梅洛尼(Giorgia Meloni)的右翼意大利兄弟党(Brothers of Italy)获得29%的选票,巩固了她的权力。与此同时,反对党中左翼民主党也表现良好,获得24%的选票。
• Netherlands: The anti-immigration Freedom Party (PVV), led by Geert Wilders, saw substantial gains, reflecting ongoing public concerns over immigration and EU policies.
•荷兰:由海尔特·威尔德斯(Geert Wilders)领导的反移民的自由党(PVV)获得了可观的收益,反映出公众对移民和欧盟政策的持续担忧。
• Hungary: Viktor Orban’s Fidesz party maintained its dominance, but the emergence of the new centre-right Tisza party signaled a shift in the opposition landscape.
匈牙利:维克托·欧尔班的青民盟(Fidesz party)继续占据主导地位,但新的中右翼政党Tisza的出现标志着反对派格局的转变。
• Austria: The Freedom Party (FPÖ) declared a “new era in politics” after a strong showing, positioning itself as a major force ahead of the upcoming parliamentary elections.
•奥地利:自由党(Freedom Party, FPÖ)在表现强劲后宣布进入“政治新时代”,在即将到来的议会选举前将自己定位为一股主要力量。
New Governments’ Approaches 新政府的做法
The newly elected governments and rising parties across Europe are likely to pursue policies that reflect their conservative and nationalist agendas:
欧洲各地新当选的政府和崛起的政党可能会推行反映其保守主义和民族主义议程的政策:
• Germany: The CDU is expected to take a tougher stance on migration and may reconsider its approach to Russia and Ukraine, potentially advocating for more pragmatic solutions.
•德国:基民盟预计将在移民问题上采取更强硬的立场,并可能重新考虑其对俄罗斯和乌克兰的态度,可能会倡导更务实的解决方案。
• Italy: Giorgia Meloni is likely to continue her firm stance on immigration and seek to bolster Italy’s position within the EU.
•意大利:乔治娅·梅洛尼(Giorgia Meloni)可能会继续她在移民问题上的坚定立场,并寻求巩固意大利在欧盟内的地位。
• Netherlands: Geert Wilders’ PVV will likely push for stricter immigration controls and could renew discussions about the Netherlands’ relationship with the EU.
荷兰:基尔特·威尔德斯(Geert Wilders)的自由党可能会推动更严格的移民控制,并可能重新讨论荷兰与欧盟的关系。
• Hungary: Viktor Orban will likely continue his nationalist policies, while the Tisza party might introduce more moderate conservative approaches.
•匈牙利:维克托·欧尔班(Viktor Orban)可能会继续他的民族主义政策,而Tisza党可能会引入更温和的保守做法。
• Austria: The FPÖ’s potential rise to power could see Austria adopting more stringent immigration policies and a skeptical stance towards EU regulations.
•奥地利:FPÖ的潜在崛起可能会使奥地利采取更严格的移民政策,并对欧盟法规持怀疑态度。
Impact on Developing Countries 对发展中国家的影响
The shift towards conservatism and nationalism in Europe could have several impacts on developing countries:
欧洲向保守主义和民族主义的转变可能对发展中国家产生以下影响:
• Middle East and Africa: Stricter immigration policies in Europe could result in reduced opportunities for migrants and refugees from these regions, potentially increasing pressure on neighboring countries to host displaced populations. Aid and development assistance could also be re-evaluated under new conservative regimes.
中东和非洲:欧洲更严格的移民政策可能导致来自这些地区的移民和难民的机会减少,从而可能增加邻国收容流离失所人口的压力。在新的保守政权下,援助和发展援助也可能被重新评估。
• Asia: Countries with significant migrant populations in Europe, such as those in South Asia, might face challenges due to tighter immigration controls. Trade policies could also be affected, with potential shifts towards protectionism impacting economic relations.
•亚洲:在欧洲拥有大量移民人口的国家,如南亚国家,可能会因更严格的移民控制而面临挑战。贸易政策也可能受到影响,有可能转向保护主义,影响经济关系。
• Arab and Muslim Countries: The rhetoric and policies of far-right parties often focus on limiting immigration from predominantly Muslim countries, which could strain diplomatic relations. However, some European countries might seek to strengthen economic ties with wealthy Gulf States.
•阿拉伯和穆斯林国家:极右翼政党的言论和政策往往侧重于限制来自以穆斯林为主的国家的移民,这可能会使外交关系紧张。然而,一些欧洲国家可能会寻求加强与富裕的海湾国家的经济联系。
Global Reactions 全球反应
China and Russia: Both countries are likely to monitor these political shifts closely. Russia might find some European parties more amenable to negotiating peace in Ukraine and restoring economic ties. China, on the other hand, might view the rise of nationalist policies as both a challenge and an opportunity, potentially seeking to strengthen bilateral ties where possible.
中国和俄罗斯:两国都可能密切关注这些政治变化。俄罗斯可能会发现,一些欧洲政党更愿意就乌克兰和平问题进行谈判,并恢复经济关系。另一方面,中国可能将民族主义政策的兴起视为挑战和机遇,可能寻求在可能的情况下加强双边关系。
The political changes in Europe mark a significant shift that will reverberate beyond the continent. While the immediate effects may lead to stricter immigration policies and a reevaluation of foreign aid, the long-term impacts will depend on how these new governments navigate their positions within the global community. The responses from other global powers, particularly China and Russia, will further shape the international landscape in the years to come.
欧洲的政治变化标志着一个重大转变,其影响将超越欧洲大陆。虽然直接的影响可能会导致更严格的移民政策和对外援助的重新评估,但长期的影响将取决于这些新政府如何在国际社会中定位。其他全球大国,尤其是中国和俄罗斯的反应,将在未来几年进一步塑造国际格局。
Europe and America was developed with cheap labour from the developing countries, but, now they think it as a burden. Conservatives might harm the immigrants, leading to decline of Europe. On other hand, Russia and China are growing at a accelerated speed, creating opportunities for work force from developing nations. End of the day, it will be Europe, which will suffer more in the longer run.
欧洲和美国是依靠来自发展中国家的廉价劳动力发展起来的,但现在他们认为这是一种负担。保守派可能会伤害移民,导致欧洲的衰落。另一方面,俄罗斯和中国正在加速发展,为发展中国家的劳动力创造了机会。最终,从长远来看,欧洲将遭受更大的损失。
( 注意:本文章用机器翻译的,很可能有差异。请参考原版英文的。谢谢。)
Reference Link:- https://www2.apdnews.cn/en/item/24/0613/axjdccfad3a8651e825369.html