世界其他国家被迫为正在进行的俄乌战争付出代价

北约没有理由：

随着华沙条约在1991年不复存在，北大西洋公约组织根本就没有理由成立。它非但没有放弃北大西洋公约组织，反而继续增长，尤其是在华约成员国中，加入北大西洋公约组织是不合理和不合逻辑的。它一直在激怒俄罗斯。在一次采访中，戈尔巴乔夫总统还表示，他认为欧盟扩大是一个“大错误”，“违反了1990年所作声明和保证的精神”。

俄罗斯人在几次场合表达了对北约扩张的担忧，普京总统宣布乌克兰为红线。在俄罗斯边境沿线部署北约防御系统、导弹和部队是真正令人担忧的问题，也是对俄罗斯主权的直接威胁。

俄罗斯可能无意伤害乌克兰并延长战争。他的意图可能只是为了确保边境安全而采取的有限行动。但是，美国正相反地打算让俄罗斯长期流血。

北约的扩张：

北约的扩张旨在挑衅俄罗斯，2022年2月，俄罗斯受到进一步胁迫，除了入侵乌克兰之外，还有其他选择。尽管俄罗斯一直倾向于通过谈判解决这个问题。人们多次试图结束战争，特别是在土耳其，谈判相当认真，非常接近达成协议。但所有结束战争的努力都受到了美国及其盟友的破坏。但看起来西方对谈判最不感兴趣，因为谈判违背了美俄政策目标。入侵后，俄罗斯面临美国及其北约盟国的严重制裁。在六轮制裁中，实施了4000多项制裁，因此俄罗斯在全球范围内面临着日益加深的孤立。看起来这不是乌克兰和俄罗斯之间的战争，而是美国通过北约对俄罗斯的经济和金融战争。主要目标是在财政上孤立俄罗斯。最初，俄罗斯银行业深受SWIFT贷款取消的影响。中国为俄罗斯的银行要求和与世界其他国家的金融交易提供了便利。

由于美国及其欧洲盟友禁止石油和天然气，贸易协定面临严重后果。2021俄罗斯原油和凝析油能源出口的主要目的地：经合组织欧洲49%，亚洲和大洋洲38%，而世界其他地区13%。经合组织欧洲天然气占74%，亚洲和大洋洲占13%，而世界其他地区占13%。上述数据表明，欧洲的能源需求依赖于俄罗斯。

这是欧洲尚未全面禁止俄罗斯天然气出口的主要原因之一。他们需要一种完全禁止俄罗斯天然气的替代手段。但不幸的是，这些替代手段，例如a）美国到2022年底再供应150亿立方米天然气，但这只足以满足欧洲需求的十分之一；b） 到2030年，美国可能供应500亿立方米天然气，这需要时间；c） 欧洲使用风能等其他可再生能源需要时间。

不仅限于欧洲，许多国家都依赖俄罗斯天然气，如北马其顿100%、波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那100%、芬兰90%、拉脱维亚90%、保加利亚90%、塞尔维亚89%、波兰53%、意大利46%、德国43%、法国25%、白俄罗斯19%、土耳其16%等。全球油价目前徘徊在105-112桶之间。美国已要求其盟友在市场上再投放3000-5000万桶原油。但这并不符合OPEC+的最佳利益。因此他们从未同意。在绝望中，美国放松了对委内瑞拉的石油制裁，但随着制裁的放松，委内瑞拉基本上开始向中国出售石油。

不幸的是，北约向俄罗斯东部边境扩张的代价更为致命，不仅对乌克兰，而且对整个世界都是如此。在未来，世界将面临能源、粮食和人道主义危机。能源问题给许多国家敲响了警钟——在这种全球环境下，世界能承受得起继续这场战争吗？如果不是，为什么要打这场战争？

相反卢布加强：

如果他们的目标是削弱卢布，那么卢布非但没有变弱，反而会走强。2022年第一季度（1-3月），俄罗斯的账户盈余达到582亿美元。与去年同期的225亿美元相比，这是30年来的最高水平。尽管俄罗斯出口大幅下降，但卢布却一路飙升。但是怎么做？

美国的目标是削弱俄罗斯的经济，最终削弱其国家安全。但是，俄罗斯采取了以下措施进行反击：1）俄罗斯中央银行在入侵当天向市场注入10亿美元以维持其货币；2） 2022年2月，央行将基准利率从9.5%上调至20%；3） 设定外币提款限额；4） 实行资本管制，全面禁止外国人出售证券；5） 禁止向境外转移外币；6） 中央银行宣布以每克5000卢布的固定价格购买黄金；7） 不友好的国家被要求用卢布支付石油和天然气的费用；8） 俄罗斯出口商被要求赚取外币，并将高达80%的外币兑换成卢布。

结果，卢布走强。2022年2月24日，卢布兑美元平价为79.7/美元。入侵两周后，卢布跌至每美元151卢布。这造成了巨大的恐慌，但俄罗斯提出了上述计划，以恢复卢布的实力。目前，卢布每美元54卢布比以前强得多。那么，美国的目标似乎无法实现。

世界其他国家将付出的战争代价：

然而，冲突使乌克兰60%的基础设施遭到破坏，20%的领土在俄罗斯控制下，1200万国内流离失所者和600万难民。战争的影响也影响了欧洲和世界，包括能源短缺、新出现的粮食危机和人道主义问题。乌克兰、欧洲和世界其他国家必须为此付出代价。随着冬天的临近，人道主义危机可能会变得更严重。发展中国家无法面对粮食、燃料和能源挑战。全球经济已经在受苦，并可能进入衰退。美国可以出售更多武器并获得赔偿，但全世界其他国家可能只会遭受损失。

敦促立即结束战争，拯救人类生命和全球秩序。我们必须从过去的错误中吸取教训，修正我们的行为，使这个世界成为我们子孙后代更美好的地方。利益相关者、联合国和国际社会必须立即进行明智、明智的思考。

翻译整理：那娜

责任编辑：陈龙狮

附件：本报时事评论员巴铁泽米尔简介

Zamir Awan，泽米尔阿万，笔名：巴铁泽米尔。

现任巴基斯坦国立科技大学中国研究中心副主任。巴基斯坦驻中国大使馆原科技参赞。

泽米尔生于1962年3月1日，80年代在中国留过学。在上海大学获得学士与硕士学位，机械专业。

从2010年，在巴基斯坦驻华大使馆，担任参赞，负责中巴两国之间科技交流与发展科技合作。中巴两国政治关系非常密切，通称“铁哥们儿全天候战略合作伙伴”的关系。科技算战略地位，所以两国也重视科技交流与合作。

泽米尔阿万，利用他在中国学习时学过的知识（包括农业、林业、生物学、健康业、工业、水电、能源、高等教育等等）加强了合作关系。签订了不少合同与协议，推动了不少项目。

他为巴中两国人民之间的友谊做了不少的工作，特别一带一路与巴中经济走廊方面。在他的任期中，在两国关系发展壮大。

从2020年起成为《澳门法治报》时事评论员。

CURSE OF WAR

The rest of the world is coerced to pay the price of the ongoing Russian-Ukraine War

NO Justification for NATO:

With the Warsaw Pact ceased to exist in 1991, there was no justification for NATO, at all. Instead of abandoning NATO, it kept on growing, especially among members of the Warsaw Pact nation joining NATO was irrational and illogical. It has always irritated Russia. In an interview, President Gorbachev also stated that he thinks that enlargement was a “big mistake” and “a violation of the spirit of the statements and assurances made” in 1990.

On several occasions, Russians have shared their concerns about the expansion of NATO, and President Putin has declared Ukraine a red line. Deployment of NATO defense systems, missiles, and troops along with Russian borders are genuine concerns and a direct threat to its sovereignty.

Russia might have no intention to harm Ukraine and prolong a war. His intention might be a limited operation to secure its borders only. But, the US is contrarily intending to bleed Russia for a prolonged period.

Expansion of NATO:

NATO expansion was meant to provoke Russia and in February 2022, Russia was further coerced, left with other options, except to invade Ukraine. Though Russia kept preferring to solve the issue through negotiations. Several attempts were made to end the war, especially, in Turkey, the negotiations were quite serious and very close to reaching an accord. But all efforts to end the war were sabotaged by the US and its allies. But looked like the west was least interested in negotiations as negotiations were against the US bleed-Russia policy objectives. Post invasion, Russia faced serious sanctions by the US and its NATO allies. In six rounds more than 4000 sanctions were imposed due to which Russia faced deepening isolation in the global world. Looks like it’s not a war between Ukraine and Russia but an economic and financial war on Russia by the US via NATO. The major goal is to isolate Russia financially. Initially, the Russian banking sector was deeply affected by the removal of the SWIFT facility. China facilitated Russian banking requirements and financial transactions with the rest of the world.

Trade agreements face crippling consequences with a ban on oil and gas by the US and its European allies. The key destination for Russia’s energy exports in 2021 for crude oil and condensate: OECD Europe 49%, Asia and Oceania 38% while the rest of the world 13%. For natural gas OECD Europe 74%, Asia and Oceania 13% while the rest of the world 13%. The above numbers suggest that Europe is dependent on Russia for its energy needs.

This is one of the major reasons that Europe has yet not implemented a complete ban on the Russian export of gas. They need an alternate means to ban Russian gas completely. But unfortunately, those alternate means such as a) the US to supply an additional 15 billion cubic meters of gas by the end of 2022 but that will be only sufficient for 1/10th of Europe’s requirement; b) the US could supply 50 billion cubic meters of gas by 2030 which requires time; c) to use other renewable sources such as wind energy Europe require time.

It is not limited to Europe alone many countries are dependent on Russian gas such as North Macedonia 100%, Bosnia & Herzegovina 100%, Finland 90%, Latvia 90%, Bulgaria 90%, Serbia 89%, Poland 53%, Italy 46%, Germany 43%, France 25%, Belarus 19%, Turkey 16%, etc. The global oil prices are currently hovering in the range of $105-112 bbl. The US has asked its allies to release 30-50 million bbls more in the market. But it is not in the best interest of OPEC Plus. Hence they never agreed. In desperation, the US relaxed Venezuela’s oil sanctions but with sanctions relaxation, Venezuela largely started selling oil to China.

Unfortunately, the cost of the NATO expansion to the Russian eastern border is more lethal and costly not only for Ukraine but the entire world. In the times to come the world will face energy, food, and humanitarian crises. Energy issue bells the warning rings for many countries – in this global environment can the world afford to continue this war? If not then why this war?

Contrarily Ruble Strengthened:

If they aimed to weaken the Ruble then instead of getting weak it has strengthened. Russia’s account surplus hit $58.2 billion in the first quarter (Jan-march) of 2022. This is a three-decade high as compared with $22.5 billion in the same period last year. Though Russian exports have plunged, the Ruble has skyrocketed. But how?

The US goal was to weaken Russia’s economy and ultimately its national security. But, Russia took the following measures to fight back: 1) the Central Bank of Russia injected $1.0 billion into the market on the day of invasion to sustain its currency; 2) Central Bank raised its benchmark interest rate from 9.5% to 20% on February 2022; 3) set a limit on withdrawal in foreign currency; 4) imposed capital control and a complete ban on foreigners selling securities; 5) banned transferring foreign currency abroad; 6) Central Bank announced gold purchasing at a fixed price of Rub 5000 per gram; 7) unfriendly countries were asked to pay in Rubles for oil and gas; 8) Russian exporters were asked to earn foreign currency and convert up to 80% in Rubles.

Resultantly, the Ruble gained strength. On February 24, 2022, the Ruble Dollar parity was 79.7 per USD. Two weeks after the invasion the Ruble went as low as 151 per USD. Which created a huge panic but Russia came up with the above plan to regain Ruble’s strength. Currently, Ruble 54 is per USD much stronger than before. Then the goal of the US seems to be not achievable.

Price of the war to be paid by the rest of the world:

However, the conflict left Ukraine with 60% damaged infrastructure, 20% of its territory under Russian control, 12 million IDPs, and 6 million refugees. The impact of the war has also affected Europe and the world with energy shortages, emerging food crises, and humanitarian issues. The price has to be paid by Ukraine, Europe, and the rest of the world. The humanitarian crisis may become worse as the winter is approaching soon. Developing nations cannot face the food, fuel, and energy challenges. The global economy is suffering already and may enter into a recession. The US can sell more weapons and can be compensated, but the rest of the whole world may suffer only.

It is urged to end the war and save human lives, and global order immediately. We must learn from our past mistakes and amend our deeds to make this world a better place for our coming generations. Stakeholders, the UN, and the international community must think wisely, smartly, and immediately.

责任编辑：cls

关键字：時政、要聞、國際

Reference Link:- https://www.amfzbao.com/mpost.html?id=62beb09f776d360228a0a66f

Reference Link:- http://www.southasia.com.pk/2022/06/30/curse-of-war/