乌克兰战争对欧洲的影响非常明显。通货膨胀和日常用品价格上涨，几乎影响到每个人。此外，600多万乌克兰难民已在欧洲定居。

事实上，俄罗斯控制了乌克兰几乎所有的海港，并将其转变为一个内陆国家。乌克兰提供了全球三分之二的小麦和大量肥料。但是，由于俄罗斯控制着海港，国家过度卷入战争，粮食和化肥的生产受到了威胁，供应已经中断。

由于美国实施的制裁，俄罗斯对欧洲的天然气和燃料供应也面临挑战。欧盟遵循美国的政策，不考虑他们的利益，即使许多学者、知识分子和思想家现在都在敦促以可持续的方式解决俄乌冲突。

美国远离乌克兰，不依赖乌克兰的小麦、化肥或俄罗斯的天然气或石油。但是，欧洲的情况却大不相同。一些欧洲国家的经济实力很强，足以承受此类冲击，但其中大多数国家已接近衰退。

俄罗斯总统告诉德拉吉，美国及其盟友实施的制裁加剧了粮食供应中断，莫斯科“愿意在西方出于政治动机的限制解除的情况下，通过粮食和化肥出口为克服粮食危机作出重大贡献”。

俄罗斯副外长鲁登科（AndreyRudenko）本周表示，基辅政府应为乌克兰停止粮食出口负责，因为它开采了其港口。乌克兰否认这一点，称是莫斯科阻止船只停靠，并指控其从被占领地区窃取粮食储备。

白宫发言人表示，俄罗斯的行动加剧了世界饥饿。战争爆发前，乌克兰是其他国家，尤其是包括北非在内的较贫穷国家小麦、玉米和葵花籽油的主要供应国。粮食目前存放在乌克兰的筒仓中，无法运输。这位发言人说：“美国以及我们的盟友和伙伴的制裁针对的是普京的战争机器。”。“它们不阻止乌克兰或俄罗斯农产品的出口，包括食品和肥料，也不阻止这些出口所需的正常交易，如银行或航运。”

然而，乌克兰外交部长德米特罗·库列巴（DmytroKuleba）在达沃斯的一次新闻发布会上表示，乌克兰希望确保安全通道不允许俄罗斯军队进入敖德萨港口并袭击该市。

俄罗斯似乎在克服粮食短缺方面处于讨价还价的地位，但作为回报，它希望取消制裁。然而，制裁可能适得其反，对欧盟的伤害可能大于对俄罗斯的伤害。在历史上，制裁几乎从未产生预期的效果，同时，制裁产生的副作用往往比治疗多。

只有对话才是出路，和平谈判可能结束乌克兰战争。俄罗斯已签署明斯克协议，可能希望根据该协议保持与欧洲的关系。资深外交官、政治家和国际地缘政治专家亨利·基辛格提出了一个值得研究的现实解决方案。希望、和平可能获胜，人为灾难可能很快结束。这需要认真努力和独立思考，越快越好。对话的拖延可能使局势进一步复杂化，并可能进入危机阶段。

翻译整理：那娜

责任编辑：陈龙狮

附件：本报时事评论员巴铁泽米尔简介

Zamir Awan，泽米尔阿万，笔名：巴铁泽米尔。

现任巴基斯坦国立科技大学中国研究中心副主任。巴基斯坦驻中国大使馆原科技参赞。

泽米尔生于1962年3月1日，80年代在中国留过学。在上海大学获得学士与硕士学位，机械专业。

从2010年，在巴基斯坦驻华大使馆，担任参赞，负责中巴两国之间科技交流与发展科技合作。中巴两国政治关系非常密切，通称“铁哥们儿全天候战略合作伙伴”的关系。科技算战略地位，所以两国也重视科技交流与合作。

泽米尔阿万，利用他在中国学习时学过的知识（包括农业、林业、生物学、健康业、工业、水电、能源、高等教育等等）加强了合作关系。签订了不少合同与协议，推动了不少项目。

他为巴中两国人民之间的友谊做了不少的工作，特别一带一路与巴中经济走廊方面。在他的任期中，在两国关系发展壮大。

从2020年起成为《澳门法治报》时事评论员。

Russia’s Bargaining Position to Overcome the Food Crisis

Russia Bargaining Position to Overcome the Food Crisis The impact of the Ukraine war on Europe is very much visible. The inflation and price hike of daily used items have jumped and affected almost every individual. Furthermore, more than 6 million Ukrainian refugees have settled in Europe.

As a matter of fact, Russia has kept control of almost all seaports of Ukraine and transformed it into a land-locked country. Ukraine was providing two-thirds of global wheat and a huge quantity of fertilizers. But, as the Russian is controlling seaports, and the country is over-engaged in war, the production of food and fertilizer is scared and supply is interrupted already. 

Due to American imposed sanctions, the supply of Russian gas and fuel to Europe is also facing challenges. The EU follows American policies, without looking after their interests., even if many scholars, intellectuals, and thinkers are now urging for a sustainable solution to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. 

The US is far away from Ukraine and is not dependent on Ukrainian wheat, fertilizers, or Russian gas or oil. But, the case of Europe is quite different. Some of the European nations are economically strong to absorb such shocks, but most of them are close to recession.

The Russian president told Draghi that disruptions to food supplies were exacerbated by the sanctions imposed by the U.S. and its allies and that Moscow is “willing to make a significant contribution to overcoming the food crisis through the exports of grain and fertilizers on the condition that the West’s politically-motivated restrictions are lifted.”

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko said this week the government in Kyiv is to blame for the halt to grain exports from Ukraine because it mined its ports. Ukraine denies that, says it is Moscow that is preventing ships from docking and accuses it of stealing grain stores from occupied regions.

A White House spokesperson said Russia’s actions were increasing world hunger. Before the war broke out, Ukraine was a key supplier of wheat, corn, and sunflower oil to other countries, particularly poorer nations including North Africa. Grain is now sitting in silos in Ukraine and unable to be shipped. “Sanctions from the United States and our allies and partners target Putin’s war machine,” the spokesperson said. “They do not prevent the export of Ukrainian or Russian agricultural commodities, including food and fertilizer, nor are they preventing the ordinary transactions that are necessary for these exports, such as banking or shipping.”

However, Ukraine wants guarantees that safe passage wouldn’t allow Russian forces to enter the harbor in Odesa and attack the city, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said at a press conference in Davos.

It seems that Russia is in a bargaining position in overcoming food shortages, but, in return, it expects the removal of sanctions. However, sanctions could be counterproductive and harm the EU more than Russia. In history, sanctions almost never produced desired results meanwhile often they have created more side effects than cures. 

Only dialogue is the way out and a peaceful negotiation may end the Ukraine war. Russia has signed the Minsk Agreement and it may desire to maintain its relations with Europe under this agreement. The senior diplomat, politician, and international expert on geopolitics, Henry Kissinger, has proposed a realistic solution that is worth studying. Hope, peace may prevail and human-made disaster may end soon. It requires serious efforts and independent thinking, the sooner the better. Delay in dialogue may complicate the situation further and may enter into a crisis stage.

责任编辑：cls

关键字：時政、要聞、國際

Reference Link:- https://www.amfzbao.com/mpost.html?id=629a0e830d9d4730cedc6159

Reference Link:- https://wgi.world/russia-bargaining-position-to-overcome-the-food-crisis/