时事评论:为什么巴基斯坦需要探索所有的可能来应对当前的经济危机?

巴基斯坦有哪些选择?借钱是唯一的选择吗?IMF是唯一的选择吗?巴基斯坦的经济学家、政治家、学者、知识分子、研究人员、机构、官僚机构以及民间和私营部门应该集体思考,探索所有可能的选项,使巴基斯坦走出经济危机。现在是团结与和解的时候了。

巴基斯坦经济增长

5月18日至25日,由内森·波特先生率领的国际货币基金组织(IMF)代表团在卡塔尔多哈与巴基斯坦当局就确保宏观经济稳定和支持巴基斯坦可持续增长的政策进行了面对面和虚拟讨论。调查团结束时,波特先生发表了以下声明:

“访问团与巴基斯坦当局进行了具有高度建设性的讨论,旨在就政策和改革达成协议,从而完成对当局改革计划的第七次审查,该计划得到了国际货币基金组织延长基金安排的支持。在访问期间取得了相当大的进展,包括需要继续解决以下问题:ss高通胀和财政及经常账户赤字上升,同时确保对最弱势群体的充分保护。

在这方面,5月23日实施的进一步上调政策利率是一个受欢迎的步骤。在财政方面,出现了偏离上次审议中达成的政策的情况,部分反映了当局今年2月宣布的燃料和电力补贴。该团队强调了采取具体政策行动的紧迫性,包括取消燃料和能源补贴以及2023财年预算,以实现项目目标。”

“国际货币基金组织团队期待继续与巴基斯坦政府就确保宏观经济稳定、造福于所有巴基斯坦公民的政策进行对话和密切接触。”

会议的最终结果是:资金不释放,多做!

但是,油价是在IMF会议后上调的,如果提前一天上调,就有可能增加与IMF协商成功的可能性。”是故意让谈判失败,还是缺乏信心,无法及时做出决定?此外,燃油价格的上涨是部分的,仍有大约20卢比的补贴,我们的预算中有财政空间来提供这些补贴吗?我们是否计划分阶段取消全额补贴?它能满足IMF的要求吗?

甚至,如果我们取消燃油的全额补贴,国际货币基金组织会满意并发放下一笔款项吗?电费、煤气费等补贴呢?政府是否计划取消所有补贴?他们在预算中有提供资金吗?有财政空间吗?还是政府依赖于借更多的钱来延长某些项目的补贴?

政府是否同意在向国民议会提交预算之前与国际货币基金组织分享202-23年的预算?国际货币基金组织会照顾巴基斯坦的公共利益,并允许对人民友好的预算吗?IMF还有很多其他的条件,政府会满足他们所有的条件吗?在通货膨胀、物价上涨、政治动荡、执政党的未来等方面,这将对公众产生什么影响?

巴基斯坦几乎满足了FATF的大部分要求,但他们仍然以这样或那样的理由把巴基斯坦留在灰色名单上。难道IMF不可能采取类似的策略吗?尽管政府已经满足了它的大部分要求,但国际货币基金组织可能会用蹩脚的借口来推迟下一笔贷款的发放。

回顾国际货币基金组织的历史,他们没有对任何国家做过任何好事

IMF最严重的受害者是阿根廷、巴西、埃及等国。巴基斯坦会在受害者名单上吗?

当然,巴基斯坦正处于严重的经济危机中,我们急需资金,国际货币基金组织是最终的选择吗?迅速变化的地缘政治迫使巴基斯坦加强国防,这需要资金。阿富汗局势、印度咄咄逼人的政策、乌克兰危机的影响等都迫使巴基斯坦加强其国防能力,这需要额外的资金。

巴基斯坦有哪些选择?借钱是唯一的选择吗?IMF是唯一的选择吗?巴基斯坦的经济学家、政治家、学者、知识分子、研究人员、机构、官僚机构以及民间和私营部门应该集体思考,探索所有可能的选项,使巴基斯坦走出经济危机。现在是团结与和解的时候了。此时需要政治上的和谐和宽容。这是一个严肃的问题,是一个关乎生死存亡的问题,严肃、勇敢、智慧和集体智慧才能使国家走出危机。巴基斯坦有潜力克服所有挑战,它只需要坚强的意志和真诚的努力。

翻译整理:那娜

责任编辑:陈龙狮

附件:本报时事评论员巴铁泽米尔简介

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Zamir Awan,泽米尔阿万,笔名:巴铁泽米尔。

现任巴基斯坦国立科技大学中国研究中心副主任。巴基斯坦驻中国大使馆原科技参赞。

泽米尔生于1962年3月1日,80年代在中国留过学。在上海大学获得学士与硕士学位,机械专业。

从2010年,在巴基斯坦驻华大使馆,担任参赞,负责中巴两国之间科技交流与发展科技合作。中巴两国政治关系非常密切,通称“铁哥们儿全天候战略合作伙伴”的关系。科技算战略地位,所以两国也重视科技交流与合作。

泽米尔阿万,利用他在中国学习时学过的知识(包括农业、林业、生物学、健康业、工业、水电、能源、高等教育等等)加强了合作关系。签订了不少合同与协议,推动了不少项目。

他为巴中两国人民之间的友谊做了不少的工作,特别一带一路与巴中经济走廊方面。在他的任期中,在两国关系发展壮大。

从2020年起成为《澳门法治报》时事评论员。

Why does Pakistan need to explore all possible options to tackle the current economic crisis?

What are the options available for Pakistan? Is borrowing more the only option? Is IMF the only option? Economists, Politicians, Scholars, Intellectuals, Researchers, Establishments, Bureaucracy, and Civil and Private sectors of Pakistan, should think collectively and explore all possible options to bring Pakistan out of the economic crisis. It is time for unity and reconciliation.

Pakistan economy growth

An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission led by Mr. Nathan Porter held both in-person and virtual discussions in Doha, Qatar with the Pakistani authorities during May 18-25 on policies to secure macroeconomic stability and support sustainable growth in Pakistan. At the conclusion of the mission, Mr. Porter issued the following statement:

“The mission has held highly constructive discussions with the Pakistani authorities aimed at reaching an agreement on policies and reforms that would lead to the conclusion of the pending seventh review of the authorities’ reform program, which is supported by an IMF Extended Fund Facility arrangement. Considerable progress was made during the mission, including the need to continue to address high inflation and the elevated fiscal and current account deficits, while ensuring adequate protection for the most vulnerable.

In this regard, the further increase in policy rates implemented on May 23 was a welcome step. On the fiscal side, there have been deviations from the policies agreed upon in the last review, partly reflecting the fuel and power subsidies announced by the authorities in February. The team emphasized the urgency of concrete policy actions, including in the context of removing fuel and energy subsidies and the FY2023 budget, to achieve program objectives.”

“The IMF team looks forward to continuing its dialogue and close engagement with Pakistan’s government on policies to ensure macroeconomic stability for the benefit of all of Pakistan’s citizens.”

The net outcome of the meeting is: Funds not released, Do more!

However, it is beyond our understanding that the fuel price was increased after the IMF meeting if it has been increased a day or earlier, the chances of success of negotiation with IMF might have been increased. Was it a deliberate attempt to fail the negotiation or a lack of confidence that could not make a decision in time? Furthermore, the increase in fuel price is partial, still a subsidy of around Rs. 20 is given, and do we have fiscal space in the budget to provide this subsidy? Are we planning to remove the full subsidy in stages? Will it satisfy the IMF requirements?

Even, if we remove the full subsidy of fuel, will the IMF be satisfied and release the next installment? What about the subsidy of Electricity and Gas, etc. Is the Government planning to remove all subsidies? Do they have the provision of funds in the budget? Is there a fiscal space? Or does the Government depends on borrowing more to extend subsidy on some items?

Has the Government agreed to share budget 202-23 with IMF before submitting it to National Assembly? Will the IMF look after public interest in Pakistan and allow a people’s friendly budget? There are many other conditions demanded by IMF, will the Government fulfill all of their demands? What will be the implication on the public, in terms of inflation, price hike, political unrest, the future of ruling parties, etc.?

Pakistan has almost fulfilled most of the requirements of FATF, but, still, they make one or another reason to keep Pakistan on the grey list. Is not the IMF may do the similar tactics? Even, though the Government full fill most of its demands, yet, IMF may use lame excuses to delay the release of the next installment.

Looking into the history of the IMF, they have not done anything good with any country worst victim of the IMF in Argentina, Brazil, Egypt, etc. Is Pakistan going to be on the victim’s list???

Definitely, Pakistan is in a serious economic crisis, and we need money urgently, is the IMF the ultimate choice? The rapidly changing geopolitics has forced Pakistan to strengthen its defense, which needs money. The Afghan situation, India’s aggressive policies, the impact of the Ukraine crisis, etc., have forced Pakistan to enhance its defense capabilities, which require additional funds.

What are the options available for Pakistan? Is borrowing more the only option? Is IMF the only option? Economists, Politicians, Scholars, Intellectuals, Researchers, Establishments, Bureaucracy, and Civil and Private sectors of Pakistan, should think collectively and explore all possible options to bring Pakistan out of the economic crisis. It is time for unity and reconciliation. Political harmony and tolerance are needed at the time. It is a serious matter and a matter of survival, being serious, brave, wise and collective wisdom can bring the nation out of the crisis. Pakistan has the potential to overcome all challenges, it need only a strong will and sincere efforts. Bravo!

责任编辑:cls

关键字:時政、要聞、國際

Reference Link:- https://www.amfzbao.com/mpost.html?id=629352770d9d4730cedc12da

Reference Link:- https://www.globalvillagespace.com/pakistan-needs-to-explore-all-possible-options-to-get-out-of-the-current-economic-crisis/

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